Allan Lichtman: ‘Nostradamus’ of US presidential elections shares his forecast for 2024

Biden vs Trump battle is getting heated up in the US

The sequel to the 2020 election is officially set as President Joe Biden and his immediate predecessor, Donald Trump, secured their parties' nominations The sequel to the 2020 election is officially set as President Joe Biden and his immediate predecessor, Donald Trump, secured their parties' nominations | AP

As the United States is preparing for the presidential elections, 'Nostradamus' Allan Lichtman has once again predicted who would win the upcoming elections. US President Joe Biden is set to retain the White House for another term unless "a lot goes wrong" in November. 

Lichtman is known as the 'Nostradamus of US presidential elections'. Through the developed '13 keys to the White House method, he predicts the winner in the elections.

"I have not made a final prediction yet but I do have a model for 13 keys to the White House which have been correct since 1984 - 10 elections in a row - and the way it works is if six or more of the 13 keys go against the White House party (incumbent) they are predicted losers and if fewer than six then they are predicted winners," Mr Lichtman told NDTV. 

"Right now a lot would have to go wrong for Joe Biden to lose this election. He's at the moment down by just two keys," he said. 

Lichtman, who is a history professor at American University, has accurately predicted nine of the 10 elections in the past. He is set to announce his 11th presidential election prediction in early August. 

A recent survey, reportedly, reveals that the Republican candidate Donald Trump is ahead of the US President Joe Biden in popularity. According to a Reuters survey, voters see Trump as more favourable for the economy compared to Biden. 

What are the 13 keys to the White House?

Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the US House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.

Nomination Contest: There's no significant challenge to the incumbent party's nomination.

Incumbency: The sitting president represents the incumbent party.

Third-party Factor: There's no noteworthy third-party or independent campaign.

Short-term Economic Stability: The economy doesn't face recession during the election period.

Long-term Economic Growth: Real per capita economic growth equals or surpasses the average growth of the preceding two terms.

Policy Shift: The incumbent administration enacts major alterations in national policy.

Social Stability: There's no prolonged social unrest throughout the term.

Scandal-Free: The incumbent administration remains free from major scandals.

Foreign/Military Mishaps: No significant failures occur in foreign or military affairs under the incumbent administration.

Foreign/Military Triumphs: The incumbent administration makes significant successes in foreign or military matters.

Incumbent Charm: The incumbent party's candidate possesses charisma or enjoys national hero status.

Challenger Appeal: The opposition candidate lacks charisma or national hero status.

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