Guatemala swears in Arevalo as president after chaotic, delayed transition

The health of democracy in the world was diminished again Sunday when the inauguration of Guatemalan president-elect Bernardo Arevalo descended into chaos as conservative opponents in Congress obstructed the ceremony to maintain their hold on power. Where Trump and Bolsonaro forces failed in stopping the orderly transition of power in the US and Brazil, the opposition in Guatemala managed to delay the process for several hours.

The actual ceremony took place in the middle of the night, after more than 12 hours of intense congressional wrangling that sparked street protests and deepened the country’s Constitutional crisis. The event capped months of legal maneuvering in what was termed a “slow-coup” which ultimately failed but on a sour note relevant for the absence of the outgoing president at the swearing in, a move that now marks the denial of a peaceful transfer of power made famous by Trump and emulated by Bolsonaro in Brazil.

As ordered by the country’s Constitution, Arevalo was set to be sworn in at 4 pm after decisively winning August elections on an anti-corruption platform. But procedural delays by deputies opposed to Arevalo kept the inauguration from occurring fueling tensions in Guatemala City as dignitaries awaited his investiture. 

On the humid dusk of the day when he should have been sworn-in, president-elect Bernardo Arevalo stood near Guatemala's National Theater awaiting his delayed inauguration. As shadows stretched across the central plaza where his father once proclaimed progressive vistas for Guatemala that kindled fears of communism, the fickle currents of history now trapped him in their undertow.

It was seventy years since a CIA-backed coup d’etat overthrew the democratically elected successor to his father Juan José from the presidency and so shaped the young Che Guevara’s radical fervor against American imperialism. Now, the younger Arevalo, a center-left politician, faces his own allegations of communism as conservatives defy the democratic will to thwart his lawful presidency. 

The past had come alive in Guatemala, the irony manifest in this display of democracy sabotaged lost to most of the young protesters. But what had changed since that distant 1954 coup, if not the actors? “They are the same people, the same things” commented a Guatemala City attorney speaking to THE WEEK. Though memories fade, its imprint remains vivid in the country’s fabric. 

And so the nation was left grasping the cyclical tragedy of repressive power that reproduces itself even when cloaked in the apparel of freedom. The theater beckoned, but this time the curtain would not rise for several hours. When it did finally happen, it was early Monday morning inside the Efrain Recinos Hall of the Centro Cultural Miguel Angel Asturias National Theater. 

Moving to a public ceremony in the city’s main plaza, a series of poets laureate summed to a final statement, “Today returns hope, and today returns light.” The presidential palace was then brightly illuminated, and fireworks lit the skies as the presidential duo appeared on the balcony.

“Si, se pudo” -Yes, we could- were some of the first words of the new president to cheering crowds in the central plaza, his image in a thousand cell phone screens recording the event. Today is the seed of change, he said, contextualizing the name of the party he founded, the Seed Movement.

“The end of the cycle in which we find ourselves is only the beginning of another cycle,” he said. “This is in reality the starting point to a transformation that has begun in all of us.

“Today we have demonstrated that each person is an agent of change, we have experienced a conscious election and we have chosen to be better.” he said in his speech, referencing the tensions since his election but praised Guatemala's institutions for withstanding attacks on democracy. He promised to prevent further corruption and impunity from capturing the state.

“This new cycle that emerges from each of us transcends the expectative of our past,” Arevalo told the flag-waiving crowds gathered in the plaza.

The Guatemala that we see perhaps seems to have evolved from those who are no longer with us, he said in a hopeful break from the country’s history, saying it is “the nation of the eternal spring,” looking to brand his administration as a New Spring for Guatemala

The chaotic delay again pitted entrenched oligarchic forces against those who dare challenge their economic and political control.

The Congressional turmoil broke out Sunday morning after Guatemala’s Constitutional Court upheld the leadership of conservatives in Congress who aimed to block Arevalo. Deputies then began closed-door deliberations when Congress was expected to formally name Arevalo president.

Deputies engaged in shouting matches while installing a new legislature, a prerequisite for formally transferring power. Arevalo backers demanding entry clashed with police outside Congress, as the standoff raised fears of an outright coup.

Protesters accused conservatives of seeking to derail the transition of power, generating confusion and frustration. “This is the latest strategy the pact of the corrupt is using to stop a democratically elected government from taking office,” said small business owner Jose Ochoa among hundreds demonstrating in Guatemala City. 

By afternoon, Arevalo backers skirmished with riot police guarding Congress demanding entry. It remained unclear if legislative leaders would participate in any ceremony to hand power to Arevalo or if one would even transpire.

The chaos unfolded as foreign dignitaries arrived, including a U.S. delegation led by USAID head Samantha Power and Latin American presidents. Arevalo defiantly asserted that he would become president at 4pm, yet how the standoff would resolve remained uncertain as celebrations were put on hold.

The turmoil marks the culmination of months of legal attacks against Arevalo to prevent him governing after his landslide victory over conservative candidate Sandra Torres. The campaign has been spearheaded by Attorney General Consuelo Porras, corrupt judges, and political elites referred to as the “pact of the corrupt.”

Strategies have ranged from annulling ballots to threatening Arevalo’s arrest. The brazenness stunned observers given Arevalo initially polled at just 2 percent. His unexpected breakthrough fueled elite panic at his anti-corruption agenda. 

Sunday’s maneuvering appeared as just the latest ploy to block Arévalo’s inauguration after direct charges failed. Indigenous groups and progressive lawmakers accused Congress of outright perpetrating a coup while denying the will of voters. They warned renewed mass mobilization could follow if Arevalo were denied the presidency.

The chaotic transition showed how entrenched oligarchic interests remain in Guatemalan politics despite Arevalo’s win. He faces immense challenges governing with just a quarter of Congressional seats. And the “pact of the corrupt” retains immense power across justice institutions it has coopted.

Yet preventing Arevalo’s inauguration also carried risks, with Guatemalans desperate for change. In office, Arevalo must strategically clean house without losing public confidence needed for legislative alliances. Making progress on anti-poverty measures would be vital to show democracy’s benefits.

With democracy hanging by a thread, the U.S. and international community have an opportunity to strengthen Arevalo without undue interference. After years of backsliding, his presidency represents a rare opening to improve governance and reduce outmigration. 

But the forces arrayed against him have shown their willingness to fight tooth and nail. The coming weeks will prove pivotal in determining whether Guatemala’s democratic revival gains momentum or sees the lights extinguished.

Who is Arevalo?

To understand Bernardo Arévalo's path to the presidency, it is important to examine his family background and early life experiences. He was born in 1958 in Montevideo, Uruguay to Juan José Arévalo, a prominent Guatemalan politician who was elected in 1945 as Guatemala's first democratically elected president. 

He ushered in an era known as the "Ten Years of Spring" characterized by progressive reforms that challenged the power of exploitative foreign corporations linked to the United Fruit Company.

In 1954, the CIA orchestrated a coup d'etat in Guatemala that overthrew the leftist government of Juan José Arévalo's successor Jacobo Árbenz. This ended the democratic opening and consolidated military rule. Juan José Arévalo soon found himself targeted and was forced to flee the country.

Thus, Bernardo Arévalo spent most of his childhood outside Guatemala due to his father's exile. He moved between Uruguay, Venezuela, Mexico and Chile as his family sought refuge across Latin America. This transnational upbringing exposed Arévalo early on to different cultures and ideologies. He became fluent in multiple languages.  

But the absence of stability and connection to Guatemala also shaped him. Arévalo has spoken of longing to return to the country of his birth. The coup against his father created a sense of unfulfilled destiny that drove him into academia and politics later in life. Even from afar, he remained invested in Guatemala's future.

After studying philosophy and sociology in Chile in the 1980s, Arévalo briefly served in the Uruguayan foreign ministry. Well-versed in political theory, he moved in leftist intellectual circles influenced by Latin America's liberation theology and dependency theory movements. But Arévalo was never radical in his views. His worldview centered on pursuing social justice and economic development through constitutional democracy.

Arévalo finally returned to Guatemala in 1996 after 42 years in exile. The country's civil war had ended with a UN-brokered peace process and the first postwar elections were about to be held. He quickly became an influential political commentator, lending his voice to calls for upholding the fragile peace accord. He took a position at Guatemala's main public university and co-founded several think tanks focused on public policy and transparency issues.

The Ten Years of Spring and 1954 Coup

To fully understand Bernardo Arévalo’s background, it is necessary to examine the progressive political opening Guatemala experienced under his father Juan José Arévalo, and how the CIA-backed 1954 coup reversed these democratic gains which sent the Arévalos into exile.

Juan José Arévalo was elected president of Guatemala in 1945, the nation’s first free and fair democratic vote after decades of repressive dictatorship. A teacher and philosopher, he represented a moderate reformist agenda aimed at modernizing Guatemala based on principles of social democracy. He expanded access to education, social security, and labor rights in what became known as the “Ten Years of Spring.”

This liberalization benefited urban middle class Guatemalans but left rural Indigenous peasants largely excluded. Yet Arévalo sowed the seeds for more radical reforms under his successor Jacobo Árbenz, who came to power in 1951. He launched major land redistribution targeting massive U.S-backed plantations, including the United Fruit Company, partly owned by Allen Dulles, then-head of the CIA. Árbenz also allowed the communist Guatemalan Labor Party to gain influence as he sought allies against conservative opposition.

Árbenz’s agenda provoked major backlash from U.S. business interests under threat. The CIA launched an operation code-named PBSUCCESS in 1954, orchestrating a coup against Árbenz and installing the military dictator Carlos Castillo Armas. 

The coup not only ended Guatemala’s democratic spring but reversed progressive gains made. A brutal civil war followed that lasted until 1996, with state violence focused especially on Indigenous communities viewed as communist sympathizers.

Juan José Arévalo faced imprisonment and execution had he not fled into exile after the 1954 coup. This traumatic experience defined his son Bernardo’s early life. The coup not only represented a personal loss for the Arévalos but a national tragedy for Guatemalan democracy and pluralism. 

The father and son represent the lost promise of an alternative, progressive political path Guatemala could have taken were it not for external Cold War interference to suppress sovereign democratic will. The 1954 coup cast a long shadow, empowering militarist factions and setting the stage for civil war. It remains a pivotal moment in Bernardo Arévalo’s mind as he finally takes power in 2024.

Post-War Political Opening         

Following the end of Guatemala's 36-year civil war, a tentative political opening emerged starting in 1996 with the country's first democratic elections. A UN-brokered peace deal initiated the transition, with various reforms aimed at strengthening the rule of law, protecting human rights, and incorporating marginalized Indigenous communities into national life.

This represented the first true opportunity for political liberalization since the 1954 coup against Arévalo's father. The early postwar governments faced immense challenges transforming Guatemalan society and institutions after conflict that claimed 200,000 lives, the vast majority Indigenous civilians. But initial reforms did expand democratic freedoms.

 The 1996 Peace Accords mandated constitutional reforms enshrining principles of multiethnicity, human rights, and access to justice. The military came under civilian control, and leftist opposition parties were legalized after years of suppression. Indigenous rights were recognized through provisions on language, cultural protections, and territorial autonomy.

For Bernardo Arévalo returning from exile, this nascent opening represented an opportunity to finally engage in Guatemalan democracy denied to his father. Arévalo lent his voice to civil society efforts centered on strengthening democratic institutions and keeping the military in check. He combined scholarly expertise with moral credibility as an exile returning to help his troubled homeland.

But the postwar transition soon faced setbacks. Economic elites who maintain dominance through the country's feudal labor system felt threatened by reforms empowering Indigenous groups and labor. These elite networks linked to the military reasserted behind-the-scenes control.

While democratic procedures continued, corruption and impunity worsened. Narcotics trafficking also exploded, fueling organized crime. Postwar governments largely abetted these trends to maintain a stable business climate rather than upend traditional hierarchies.

This democratic deterioration enabled a reversal of the military's subordination, with generals returning to internal security roles. It also rolled back human rights progress, as activists were increasingly targeted. Guatemala's justice system failed to pursue civil war abuses, facilitating 1950s counterrevolutionary ideologies to regain sway.

For Arévalo, this backsliding represented a gradual closing of the window that briefly opened after 1996. The oligarchic networks and reactionary ideologies that propelled the 1954 coup against his father’s party were reasserting dominance through new institutional arrangements. His skepticism deepened that Guatemala's power structure could be reformed through incremental change alone.

Public Discontent Builds

Guatemalan democracy continued eroding through the 2000s, marked by electoral manipulation, judicial politicization, and rampant state corruption. Transnational companies expanded controversial mining and hydroelectric projects, sparking social conflict. And the U.S. forged closer ties with Guatemalan military officers implicated in war crimes to advance counter-narcotics and border security objectives.

These developments fueled rising discontent in Guatemalan society, especially among Indigenous communities bearing the brunt of rising inequality, repression, and dispossession. Opposition gradually coalesced around a unifying narrative that the country's institutions had been "captured" by oligarchic networks who rigged them for self-enrichment and protection.

Business elites, politicians across party lines, coopted judges, and organized crime figures colluded in this "pact of the corrupt" that subverted democracy's potential. Such critiques drew directly from Arévalo's scholarly work on entrenched corruption inhibiting development.

Significant protests first erupted in 2012 against educational and water privatization schemes. But the watershed moment came in April 2015, when a massive customs fraud scheme was exposed through parallel investigations led by the UN-backed International Commission Against Impunity in Guatemala and Guatemalan prosecutors.

The fraud network led directly to then-president Otto Pérez Molina and vice-president Roxana Baldetti, who were forced to resign and jailed. This massive corruption scandal catalyzed wider demonstrations demanding system change, not just new leaders. For a brief period, meaningful reform appeared possible.

Arévalo advised the early anti-corruption mobilizations, providing legal expertise on reform proposals. But lacking a political vehicle of his own, broader organizational capacity, and name recognition, he did not play a public leadership role. The short-lived 2015 opening soon closed again as elites turned to political outsiders promising order over change.

Post-2015 Erosion

After the 2015 protests, Guatemalan democracy continued to deteriorate amidst sustained judicial harassment of anti-corruption campaigners including judges and prosecutors. Two conservative governments led by Jimmy Morales and Alejandro Giammattei dismantled reforms and restored a climate of impunity.

The UN anti-corruption commission was expelled in 2019 after implicating Morales. Lead investigators and prosecutors fled into exile after credible threats. The Constitutional Court blocked meaningful legislative reforms, and Congress appointed Supreme Court justices linked to corrupt networks and organized crime. Judicial independence eroded drastically, turning courts into weapons against opponents.

This democratic erosion enabled accelerated capture of natural resources on Indigenous lands. Security forces again took on internal roles, protesting students faced violent repression, and the military's "hidden powers" reasserted behind the scenes. Conservative elites pursued family separation and detention to deter migration, driven by the poverty and violence they stoked through unaccountable rule.

For Arévalo, the renewed setbacks post-2015 proved Guatemala could not rely on episodic mass mobilization alone to dislodge entrenched oligarchic power. A broader political movement was needed. After decades advising civil society groups, he helped found the center-left Movimiento Semilla party to contest elections as an institutional challenge to corrupt governance 

models.

Arévalo's Reform Agenda

Bernardo Arévalo campaigned for president in 2023 as an academic scholar and civil society activist, not a career politician. His unusual background shapes his reformist priorities aimed at reducing corruption and rebuilding democratic institutions.

Arévalo promises to clean up state institutions that have been captured through infiltration and the systematic removal of independent officials. This includes replacing the Attorney General and Supreme Court justices linked to elite networks who manipulate law enforcement and judicial power for self-interest.

To reduce corruption incentives, he pledges to impose controls and transparency measures when public funds are managed by private contractors. Oversight bodies must also be shielded from political interference and strengthened to audit state agencies. The Military's growing internal role would be curtailed to keep security policy under strict civilian control.

Arévalo further vows to uphold the rights of marginalized groups like Indigenous communities and women who bear the brunt of unaccountable rule. He would comply with court orders to prosecute civil war-era crimes and properly fund Indigenous bilingual education programs. He also promised greater investments in health, education, and infrastructure to expand economic opportunities.

This reform agenda threatens entrenched business elites who benefit enormously from a weak state, repression of local communities, and corruption that evades taxation to fund public services. They rightly view Arévalo as intent on implementing the progressivism his exiled father never had the chance to. Hence the ferocious pushback even before he assumes office.

To succeed, Arévalo will have to strategically overcome legal and legislative obstacles through public mobilization and international support. He must also build alliances with reformist business sectors, progressive legislators, and centrist military officials not fully coopted by corrupt networks. His presidency will stand or fall based on showing tangible gains improving ordinary Guatemalans' lives.

After decades confined to academia, Arévalo finally has an opportunity to fulfill his family destiny. But realizing the promise of Guatemalan democracy requires dislodging profoundly anti-democratic forces first unleashed by the 1954 coup. Whether this proves achievable or once again stymied will become clear in the coming months.

U.S. Policy Considerations

The United States has a complex legacy in Guatemala that shapes options to support Bernardo Arévalo's embattled presidency. The Eisenhower administration bears significant responsibility for the 1954 coup against the president who shared political ideologies with Arévalo's father and that consolidated military rule. U.S. backing of state forces during the civil war also empowered the reactionary castes who now subvert democracy.

More recently, however, the U.S. assisted Guatemalan judicial reformers through funding and training. DEA cooperation with Guatemalan officers implicated in abuses to dismantle drug planes also provided cover for malfeasance. And U.S. validation of Guatemala's last two corrupt governments hindered accountability.

This record sparks concerns that Arévalo's nationalism could provoke U.S. intervention given historic interference in leftist Latin regimes. But his moderate, scholarly temperament has allayed such fears for now. He remains staunchly pro-democratic and committed to constitutional reform over radical change.

The U.S. appears keen to avoid mistakes of the past. Samantha Power's presence at Arévalo's obstructed inauguration signaled support for his anti-corruption agenda. Recent targeted sanctions also deterred a direct coup while avoiding inflammatory broad measures. Now completing the irony of its redemptive circle, U.S. training for Guatemalan rights activists promotes reform from within.

Yet more can be done to strengthen Arévalo without unhealthy meddling. The U.S. can ramp up anti-corruption funding and help reform Guatemala's courts and prosecutors by vetting officials. Security aid could incentivize professionalization while reducing internal roles. And development banks could fund projects improving infrastructure and public services to demonstrate democracy's benefits.

With millions of Guatemalan migrants now living in the U.S., Washington has incentive to stabilize the country through accountable governance. An Arévalo presidency committed to transparency and rights could reduce outflows. But he faces intense oligarchic resistance retained through decades of U.S. Cold War policy. Avoiding intervention while supporting democratic renewal remains key.

If Arévalo survives the sustained power grab, his presidency will still depend on legislative compromises and street mobilization to gradually loosen elite interests strangling democracy. With no quick fixes available, modest, sustained U.S. support for his reform agenda offers the best path. The alternative risks chaos, renewed exodus, and further democratic deterioration in Central America.

Arévalo's Reform Agenda 

After decades advising civil society groups, Arévalo helped found the Movimiento Semilla party to contest elections as an institutional challenge to corrupt governance models.

He campaigned for president in 2023 as an academic scholar and civil society activist, not a career politician. His unusual background shapes his reformist priorities aimed at reducing corruption and rebuilding democratic institutions.

Arévalo promises to clean up state institutions that have been captured through infiltration and the systematic removal of independent officials. This includes replacing those like Supreme Court justices linked to elite networks who manipulate law enforcement and judicial power for self-interest

To reduce corruption incentives, he pledges to impose controls and transparency measures when public funds are managed by private contractors. Oversight bodies must also be shielded from political interference and strengthened to audit state agencies. The Military's growing internal role would be curtailed to keep security policy under strict civilian control. 

The new president further vows to uphold the rights of marginalized groups like Indigenous communities and women who bear the brunt of unaccountable rule. 

The chaotic events surrounding Bernardo Arévalo's botched inauguration represent a pivotal moment for Guatemalan democracy. His presidency faces immense challenges reforming corrupt state institutions and powerful oligarchic networks desperate to maintain impunity. 

Yet Guatemalans already showed their passionate desire for change by mobilizing to defend Arévalo's election victory. And his principled stance against authoritarianism has inspired similar reform movements in Central America.

If Arévalo manages to strategically outmaneuver the reactionary forces arrayed against him, Guatemala could yet become an exemplar for the region. His family history bestows immense moral stature to take on the daunting task of reforming a deeply unequal society.

But the risks are equally stark. If Arévalo is overwhelmed by legal machinations and legislative obstruction, it could irrevocably damage faith in democratic institutions as avenues for progress. The frustrations boiling over today could then transmute into uglier expressions.

The U.S. and international community must chart a careful course assisting Arévalo's reform agenda minimizing interference, enabling Guatemala's return to more inclusive, participatory, and representative rule.

How Arévalo fares will reveal much about the current state of Central American democracy. If a scholar and activist with civil society support cannot tame corrupt state capture and impunity, what hope remains? Yet if he succeeds moving beyond Guatemala's polarized politics, it could provide a model for the region. 

The coming weeks and months will determine which of these futures unfolds.