What does a country like the United States, which has spent the last two centuries trying to export the idea that its constitution is the greatest founding document humanity has ever conceived, do when one of its own is bent on destroying it in order to save himself?
That may just the be the situation the great power finds itself in as Donald Trump, the twice-indicted former president of the United States, faces a second set of indictments, this time from federal agencies on top of the state charges levied against him in New York state. He is reported to be "very jacked up” and ready for a fight, setting up an existential question for America and the western world.
In a stunning display of political chutzpa and strategic maneuvering, Trump is openly anchoring his criminal defense strategy on winning the American presidency in order to shield himself from criminal prosecution and prison. It is an audacious gambit.
Can he do that?
There is nothing in the US Constitution or law that prevents it.
Trump's exploitation of the presidency as a shield against criminal charges is a real threat to American institutions and democracy itself, say political opponents, mostly from the Democratic party but notably, some from his own party. Let's consider it.
For Trump, it is a calculated game.
By occupying the highest office, he would strategically neutralise the authority of the US Justice Department, withdrawing authorisation for any action or prosecution against himself, thus freezing all action by the country’s top law enforcement agency, which would be under his control.
This calculated move would capitalise on the expansive powers of the American presidency and allow him to leverage the presidency as an impregnable fortress against legal consequences.
The implications are stunning.
Looking at Trump's actions through a Game Theory framework, we can take a look at his Machiavellian approach and the significant implications for the American system. Trump's tactics undermine the principles of justice, imperil the independence of law enforcement agencies, and manipulate public sentiment to rally blind support.
Trump has always been a master communicator and and it is clear he is also a savvy analyst of public perception. He is utilizing these skills to exploit perceptions, suspicions, and public sentiment, using them as mere game pieces in a more high-stakes game that pits him against the future of the United States.
One of Trump's most remarkable feats has been his ability to sway public opinion, convincing a substantial portion of Americans that he is a victim of an unjust system.
Despite the weight of multiple federal and state charges hanging over him, Trump's popularity among his base and within the Republican party has only solidified. He is the choice of the vast majority of polled Republican likely voters. A CBS poll after his federal indictment shows him with 61 per cent support.
He has successfully portrayed himself to his supporters as a target of biased persecution. This manipulation of public sentiment undermines the very basis of legitimacy of the American justice system, with wide ranging implications of eroding trust and fueling a dangerous narrative of victimhood that has his MAGA (Make America Great Again) base seeing itself as the victim through Trump.
To understand this better, we need to unpack the Game Theory dynamics.
In Game Theory, players seek to maximize their impact while minimising potential costs. By skillfully leveraging his political influence Trump aims to use this fervent base of support to buttress a view of the American system that benefits him at the expense of the country.
To outside observers, this magnifies the inherent weaknesseses in a system that was touted to the world as the greatest constitution, written by the wisest of men humanity has produced at the founding of a nation.
That has been the American narrative, but Trump's calculated approach exploits all the weaknesses and loopholes within the constitutional framework, posing a potentially formidable challenge to the principles that have been at the core of America's self-appointed role of moral leadership in the world.
At home, this threatens the very foundations of American democracy, eroding democratic institutions and undermining the rule of law.
Trump's immediate statements as he announced his own indictments are clearly a political rather than a legal strategy. He declared himself "an innocent man" casting doubt on his alleged wrongdoings and fanning the flames of resentment and distrust. "This is unprecedented election interference," said the leading Republican candidate for the presidency. "I did nothing wrong, I will fight these actions like I have been fighting the last seven years."
With this move, he is further chipping away at the trust and integrity of the justice system that could lead to the undoing of its present structure if Trump manages to get elected as president.
Lest you think that this is an impossible task, it would be helpful to remember that when Trump descended that escalator in 2015 and made comments, most analysts thought it would end his attempt at political office. Instead, he managed to defeat all his Republican challengers and was elected president.
American democracy does not have a safeguard against someone like Trump.
On a broader map, if Trump were to succeed this time around, the outcome would raise profound concerns about the integrity of the US justice system, the autonomy of its law enforcement agencies, and the resilience of democratic institutions in the country.
Viewing his actions through the lens of Game Theory lets us see the strategic nature of his use of the candidacy and perhaps the presidency as his defense. This highlights the daring calculations behind his every move, practically taunting the Justice Department to indict him in order to gain sympathy and support.
In an instant, an indictment — something that would be a terribly bad thing for just about any individual — becomes political currency and a source of income for Trump. As details of the 37-count indictment were coming to light, he was already running ads and e-mail fund-raising off the charges. His campaign reported a surge in donations.
In America, campaign donations are considered a form of free speech. By the measure of the funds coming in for Trump, his supporters are speaking loudly through their money, protected by the First Amendment to the US Constitution.
Trump has strategically used a raw, targeted criticism of the FBI to construct an alternative storyline that allows him to rally the support of his loyal followers.
He is transactional, say his supporters, but this is a transaction in which the only beneficiary is Trump and interests not aligned with the goals of a nation and its law enforcement as a buttress of a democratic republic.
Since the 2016 campaign and his subsequent firing of the FBI director for failing to politicise the agency according to Trump's vision, the country's top law enforcement agency has seen a decline in its reputation among a significant portion of Republicans.
While it is true that James Comey had politicised the Hillary Clinton investigation by releasing a statement criticising her despite not filing charges, it is also true that when he tried to keep the agency independent from the executive office under Trump, the latter famously fired him by tweet and then used him as a foil to attack the agency, accusing it of being corrupt.
This transformation of perception has profound implications for America.
Trump makes repeated accusations of bias and a "deep state" conspiracy. This has, for years, been sowing seeds of doubt about the agency's integrity and cast suspicion on its investigations of him. There are so many who believe him, and Republican candidates for office are afraid to challenge his false statements for fear of alienating his supporters whose vote they may need to be elected.
That millions of Americans distrust the Justice Department and dismiss their actions as corrupt is a breathtaking turnaround for a party and a candidate that paint themselves as supporters of law and order.
It is so stunning a turn that much of the country has yet to process what has happened and its implications.
By constantly questioning the credibility and impartiality of the FBI and the Justice Department in front of cheering crowds that act as the laugh track in a sitcom comedy, Trump creates an atmosphere of momentum against a newly discovered enemy. The orchestrated loud cheers behind him act as a cue for those inclined to believe him, guiding their emotional response and subliminally inviting them to join his cause. His relentless attacks on every investigation of his actions, from the Russia probe to former FBI director James Comey, and the current Attorney General Merrick Garland, have been very effective in creating the perception that this second set of indictments is a deep state-driven partisan prosecution bent on keeping him away from power in order to deny power to his supporters.
An oft used and very effective political line by Trump is: "They are not after me, they are after you, I am just in their way." That line alone within an entire attack framework are responsible for his successful politicisation of prosecutors. At Trump rallies, the 'Lock her up' chants against Hillary continue to be part of the background crowd noise.
Trump is capitalising well on existing discontent and is turning grievances among segments of the population into support for himself as the victim of unfair treatment by law enforcement agencies. Facts show, however, that he has received more preferential treatment than any other individual in recent memory.
Making himself the standard-bearer of his supporters' frustrations and their only defender, Trump has created the environment where the FBI and the US Justice Department, which is under the control of the Biden administration, are seen adversaries to their values and interests. It is a weaponization of discontent that in practice diminishes the institutions among Trump followers.
The implications of this erosion of trust are far-reaching, but Republican politicians are rushing to support the Trump storyline. In the days following the announcement of the indictments, he collected several endorsements. Speaking before packed houses in Georgia and North Carolina that cheered for him enthusiastically, he hurled insults against the Special Counsel, Biden, Hillary, the US attorney general and all his favorite targets. A bold move that could have other indicted individuals hauled in to jail.
Florida governor and presidential candidate Ron DeSantis, a Trump rival for the GOP nomination who has been courting his supporters, issued a statement further politicising the indictments, even before they know the extent or evidence on the charges.“Why so zealous in pursuing Trump yet so passive about Hillary [Clinton] or Hunter [Biden]? The DeSantis administration will bring accountability to the DOJ, excise political bias and end weaponization once and for all,” said the Florida governor in decrying the "weaponization" of the Justice Department by Biden.
A statement by another rival, former South Carolina governor and former US ambassador to the UN under Trump, Nikki Haley, issued a statement saying the indictment is about 'revenge' rather than 'justice.'
Already 82 per cent of polled Republicans perceive the FBI and Justice Department to be corrupt and in need of reform. Conservative commentator and influencer DC_Draino tweeted before the indictments were announced that "63% of Americans want the FBI reformed or abolished."
This is what happens when you get caught spying on the US president, said the conservative.
FOX News ran a steady stream of Republicans decrying “the weaponization” of the US justice system against the front-runner in the Republican nomination.
This sets up the question, What is the future of a country where a sizeable portion of the population, perhaps large enough to hand the presidency to Trump, believes that the country and its institutions need to be undone and remade in Trump's image?
Institutions in any country play a critical role in upholding the rule of law. The US institution have traditionally been believed to be some of the strongest in the world. Loss of faith in key institutions undermines the very foundations of a functioning democracy.
But is the US too great of a democracy to be undone by someone like Trump?
The day after his indictment, Trump held political rallies where he claimed the indictments would go down as “the greatest abuses of power in the history of the nation.” He went on to attack Biden and the special counsel, said the Justice Department was corrupt and that they all needed to be replaced, which he promised to do in his first day back in office.
Painting himself as the victim of a weaponized “corrupt” deep state justice system, Trump manages to successfully skew judgement on his actions.
What may deal a lethal blow, however, is that he may yet prove that by claiming that the prosecutions of his actions make the country a "banana republic", he may get elected to its highest office, cast aside the law and the prosecutions to absolve himself, and thus make the US a country with a weak rule of law and a lack of institutional checks and balances — the very definition of life in a banana republic.
It is not too much of a stretch. Trump has been elected against all odds before. If citizens perceive that the system is compromised or that certain individuals are above the law, it can lead to a breakdown of social order and a loss of respect for legal norms. This threatens the fundamental principles that underpin a democratic society.
Case in point, former Arizona gubernatorial candidate and rabid Trump supporter Kari Lake who was narrowly defeated in the last election said during a speech Friday after the indictment: “If you want to get to president Trump, you’re going to have to go through me, and you’re going to have to go through 75 million Americans just like me. And I’m going to tell you, most of us are card-carrying members of the NRA [National Rifle Association]. That’s not a threat, that’s a public service announcement.”
The context and intention behind the statement, made with the implicit purpose of inciting followers and provoking fear in the government and the people, leave little doubt as to what it is.
Presidential contender for the Republican party nomination, multi-millionaire biotech executive Vivek Ramaswamy said if he were elected, he would pardon Trump one of his first acts in office. "I commit to pardon Trump promptly on January 20, 2025, and to restore the rule of law in our country,” he said.
Politicians from the right know that by making a false comparison of his documents case with those of Biden and Hillary, Trump has managed to convince millions of people that their cases were “much worse.”
The former president has been indicted on 37 counts related to deliberate mishandling of secret documents, Biden, Hillary, and even Trump’s former vice-president have not been charged because authorities determined that documents found in their possession were not deliberate, or criminally chargeable offenses.
Yet in increasingly fervent rallies, Trump is now calling for Biden to be prosecuted for donating 1,850 boxes of his senatorial records to the University of Delaware, implying a dark double standard. That is, however, standard practice for politicians and it does not involve classified or secret material, a fact left out of his inflammatory speeches and comments echoed in conservative media.
The shameless audacity is stunning to political analysts, yet right-wing media repeats the allegations without providing context, further reinforcing the belief in his followers.
We turn again to Game Theory to understand how Trump strategically utilises the right-wing media and presidency to insulate himself from the law. By manipulating the political landscape to his advantage, he alters the dynamics of the game, influencing the actions and decisions of other actors in the legal process.
It may well be that, in an effort to show fairness to Trump, the special prosecutor chose to bring charges in Florida, a venue far more Republican than Washington DC. In doing so, it set up a one-in-four possibility of drawing judge Aileen Cannon, a Trump-appointed judge who in a previous hearing last year issued a highly criticized favorable ruling for him. She could potentially allow Trump to delay the trial, an ideal situation for him that allows him to use the charges for his political advantage, leaving its outcome until after the election.
A crucial aspect of Game Theory is the manipulation of perceptions to gain an advantage. Trump employs tactics he honed for decades to shape public opinion and influence what people believe about his legal troubles. The shield of public sentiment he creates may yet influence or hinder actions against him.
Supporters were already taking to the streets in Florida outside the courthouse where Trump will be briefly taken into custody Tuesday at 3 pm US Eastern time. In media interviews his supporters make it clear they do not believe the government, they see Trump as an innocent victim and are demanding that the charges, which they see as politically motivated, be dropped.
In rallies and in social media posts Trump has called on his supporters to protest, raising mounting concerns of a replay of the January 6 insurrection attacks on the US capitol, and that large crowds may try to storm the building.
"For a lot of us, it is Trump of nothing." said a supporter to a CNN camera. "We'll follow him anywhere," said another.
For Trump, it may be the presidency or prison. If convicted, he may not be trusted to vote in an election for dog catcher, but if elected he would be allowed to take office and stop all legal action against himself, perhaps even pardon himself.
For America, the massive support for Trump as a presidential candidate in wake of the charges levied against him, raises significant concerns about the preservation of democratic norms and the rule of law.
The threat is substantial!
