Pakistan vs Sri Lanka: Can Pakistan or Sri Lanka still qualify for Asia Cup final if one of them loses this fixture? EXPLAINED

A loss for Sri Lanka or Pakistan will push them to the brink of elimination but they will still have a chance of making the Asia Cup final

Hariprasad Sadanandan By Hariprasad Sadanandan Updated: September 23, 2025 20:43 IST
SLPAKAFP - 1 The loser of the Pakistan-Sri Lanka game will mostly be eliminated but there will be an outside chance to qualify | AFP

The tempo of T20 cricket and T20 tournaments gives very little respite for teams as games come thick and fast. Pakistan, still hurting at their six-wicket loss to India on Sunday (September 21), now face Sri Lanka on Tuesday (September 23) with the game being almost a do-or-die fixture for Salman Ali Agha's side. Each team plays three games in the Super Fours stage and two losses almost certainly knocks a team out. However, Pakistan could still qualify even with a loss to Sri Lanka, but they will have to depend on multiple permutations and combinations in such a scenario. Similarly, if Sri Lanka lose to Pakistan, they too will have two losses from three games and will need a few scenarios to go their way.

If Pakistan loses to Sri Lanka, then they need the following scenario to play out for them to make the Asia Cup final.

For starters, India has to beat Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, both by heavy margins. Then, Pakistan has to do their own duty and need to beat Bangladesh by a huge margin to prop up their net run rate. If these scenarios play out, then Pakistan will be tied on points with Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, thereby bringing net run rate into play. This will mean a lot of calculations have to be factored in for deciding the finalist.

If any of the scenarios go wrong, Pakistan will stand eliminated because it is very tough for a team to qualify from a group of four teams with just one win from three games. If Pakistan lose to Sri Lanka today, that is exactly the situation that they will be in. Ideally, Agha and coach Mike Hesson will hope that their side can get across the line.

If Sri Lanka loses to Pakistan, then it will be the Lankans turn to depend on a set of combinations.

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For starters, Bangladesh has to beat India and Pakistan, both by heavy margins. Then, Sri Lanka has to do their own duty and need to beat India by a huge margin to prop up their net run rate. If these scenarios play out, then Sri Lanka will be tied on points with India and Pakistan, thereby bringing net run rate into play. This will mean a lot of calculations have to be factored in for deciding the finalist.

All this suggests that neither side can realistically afford to lose Tuesday's fixture and it makes for a potential thriller.

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