Dubai's housing market has seen its first annual price decrease since 2021, with a 1.7% drop in average prices in August 2026. This shift signifies a move towards a more balanced and mature market cycle following a sustained period of growth. Despite the slight decline, August recorded AED23.4bn in residential sales, with off-plan properties making up over 75% of transactions, indicating continued investor interest. Market analysts attribute this transition to factors like reduced property launches and regional uncertainties, though fundamental demand drivers remain robust. The outlook suggests a 'nice balance' for the market, with a potential 5-10% adjustment anticipated due to geopolitical influences.

Dubai's housing market has seen its first annual price decrease since 2021, with a 1.7% drop in average prices in August 2026. This shift signifies a move towards a more balanced and mature market cycle following a sustained period of growth. Despite the slight decline, August recorded AED23.4bn in residential sales, with off-plan properties making up over 75% of transactions, indicating continued investor interest. Market analysts attribute this transition to factors like reduced property launches and regional uncertainties, though fundamental demand drivers remain robust. The outlook suggests a 'nice balance' for the market, with a potential 5-10% adjustment anticipated due to geopolitical influences.

Dubai's housing market has seen its first annual price decrease since 2021, with a 1.7% drop in average prices in August 2026. This shift signifies a move towards a more balanced and mature market cycle following a sustained period of growth. Despite the slight decline, August recorded AED23.4bn in residential sales, with off-plan properties making up over 75% of transactions, indicating continued investor interest. Market analysts attribute this transition to factors like reduced property launches and regional uncertainties, though fundamental demand drivers remain robust. The outlook suggests a 'nice balance' for the market, with a potential 5-10% adjustment anticipated due to geopolitical influences.

For the first time since 2021, Dubai house prices have fallen year-on-year, according to a market study. The average price in August 2026 stood at AED 1,636 per square foot in August 2026, down 1.7 per cent compared with August last year.

This is 1.3 per cent over the previous three months, according to data from real estate advisory and property consultancy Cavendish Maxwell.

Despite the decline in average prices, residential sales values reached AED23.4bn during August, the study revealed, adding that nearly 10,900 homes were purchased during August. This is indicative of the summer slowdown, and is 14 per cent lesser than in July.

Of this, over 75 per cent of residential sales were off-plan properties. Ronan Arthur, Director, Head of Residential Valuation at Cavendish Maxwell, said the latest figures showed the Dubai residential market continuing its transition following a prolonged period of strong sales and rising prices.

“After an extended period of exceptionally strong sales activity with sustained price increases, the Dubai residential market continues its transition to a more measured phase. The August data confirms what our in-depth market insight, covering quarterly, six-month and annual statistics and trends, has been telling us for a while: prices are softening, and the market is entering a more mature cycle,” he said, adding that the fundamentals that drive Dubai real estate demand in the emirate remain intact, but the near-term outlook is being shaped by a combination of fewer launches, regional uncertainty and a broader normalisation in buyer activity.

Earlier, Emaar Properties founder Mohamed Alabbar had stated how the property market in Dubai was set for a “nice balance” next year.

Speaking at AIM Congress in Dubai, Alabbar said the city will witness a nice balance as “a lot of supply is coming in, so I think there'll be a nice balance in the city.”

On how the geopolitical situation will affect Dubai's broader real estate sector, Alabbar said an adjustment of 5 per cent to 10 per cent is expected.

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