The United States Central Command confirmed on Monday that the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group, which includes three guided-missile destroyers—the USS Frank E. Petersen Jr., USS Spruance and USS Michael Murphy—has arrived in the Middle East. The fleet carries squadrons of F-35C fighter jets and F/A-18 Super Hornets, significantly boosting US combat power in the region. President Donald Trump described the deployment as a “massive fleet” sent “just in case” he decides to take military action.
US officials say the deployment is explicitly linked to the deepening unrest in Iran. Trump has reportedly established two “red lines” that could trigger a US attack: the killing of peaceful protesters or the mass execution of detained citizens. While the administration remains divided over whether to pursue outright regime change, observers note that the US, potentially aided by Israel, possesses sufficient firepower to target Iran’s leadership. Trump recently claimed that Iran had halted the planned execution of 800 detainees due to US pressure, a claim Iranian officials have denied.
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The current standoff is driven by widespread anti-government protests that erupted in December, following the collapse of the Iranian rial and soaring inflation, which has reached 60 per cent. The regime’s response has been brutal, producing the highest protest-related death tolls in decades. Human rights activists estimate that 5,973 people have been killed and more than 41,800 arrested. The Iranian government, meanwhile, acknowledges 3,117 deaths, describing many of those killed as “terrorists”. The country has also been subjected to a severe internet blackout that has lasted for more than two weeks, further limiting access to independent information.
Iran’s leadership and its so-called “Axis of Resistance” have responded to the arrival of US forces with increasingly bellicose rhetoric. In Tehran, billboards depicting a damaged US aircraft carrier have appeared bearing the slogan, “If you sow the wind, you’ll reap the whirlwind.”
Yesterday, Iranian authorities reiterated their threats of retaliation. “Our response will be more decisive and more painful than before if we become the target of a US–Zionist attack,” said Reza Talaei-Nik, the defence ministry spokesman, referring to the June war launched by Israel against Iran and briefly joined by the US. The commander of Iran’s navy said the country’s armed forces were “fully prepared to safeguard the nation’s sovereignty”.
Iran-backed militias across the region have echoed Tehran’s threats, particularly in Iraq and Yemen. Kataib Hezbollah, the most powerful Iran-backed Shia militia in Iraq, warned that war would not be a “picnic” and that enemies would face the “bitterest forms of death”. The group urged its fighters to prepare for a comprehensive war in support of Iran. A war against Iran, it said, “will not be easy. You will taste every form of deadly suffering, nothing of you will remain in our region, and we will strike terror in your hearts.”
The Houthi rebels in Yemen also signalled a readiness to resume attacks on shipping in the Red Sea, releasing a video captioned “Soon” that showed a burning ship. By contrast, Hezbollah in Lebanon has struck a more cautious tone. Its leader, Sheikh Naim Kassem, said the group was preparing for aggression but stressed that the scale of its intervention would depend on the nature of any conflict.
The prospect of a renewed conflict has drawn warnings from global powers and prompted defensive preparations among Iran’s neighbours. The Kremlin said a US strike would “seriously destabilise” the Middle East and urged restraint. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) declared that it would not allow its territory or airspace to be used for military action against Iran, emphasising the need for diplomatic solutions. Turkey has reportedly drawn up plans for a buffer zone along its border in anticipation of a possible wave of migration if fighting erupts.
Despite the heightened tensions, Iranian officials have publicly downplayed the arrival of the carrier strike group, portraying it as psychological warfare aimed at undermining “social cohesion” rather than a prelude to an imminent invasion. At the same time, Iran’s military has said its forces have their “finger on the trigger”, underscoring the volatility of the situation.
Meanwhile, there are reports about Trump receiving intelligence inputs that Tehran’s grip on power is at its weakest since the 1979 revolution. “President Trump is consistently briefed on intelligence matters around the world,” Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, said in a statement yesterday when asked about the assessments. “With respect to Iran, President Trump continues to closely monitor the situation.”
