Iran on the brink: Are we witnessing the end of the Islamic Republic?

The Islamic Republic is on the edge as the anti-government unrest escalated massively, with millions taking to the streets across the country on Thursday night for a national rally called by exiled Prince Reza Pahlavi. Angry Iranians chanted ‘death to the dictator’ and ‘support to the Shah, as demonstrations  spread to all 31 provinces. They set buildings on fire, cheered as the statue of  former senior Revolutionary Guards al-Quds force commander Qassem Suleimani was pulled down, showing their anger at the policies of the regime that caused their currency to collapse and economy to shatter.

The state didn’t sit idle either. Iranian state media broke its silence on Friday over the protests, alleging “terrorist agents” of the U.S. and Israel were responsible. It also said there were “casualties,” without elaborating. The regime also hit the protesters with a nationwide internet blackout, obstructing the flow of information from the nation.

While public protests have happened before in Iran, the most recent one was in 2022, over the murder of Mahsa Amini. But the atmosphere in Iran is tense and different this time. What began as a protest by Bazaaris soon drew regime loyalists, with the cities of Mashhad and Qom, both strongholds of the Islamic Republic. Even those who allied with the leadership have now joined the protest against rocketing inflation.

What’s next for Khamenei may be hard to predict, but it doesn’t look good at all, since the ruling class has alienated the masses. The gap between the elite and the people is too wide after those in power enriched themselves through corruption.  

Khamenei is fighting back. “Protest is different from riot. Talking to rioters is  useless, and they must be put in their place,” he instructed his militia.

But the tide of public anger continues to swell, and fear has switched sides.  

The Supreme Leader is aware of the reality and is said to be taking extreme steps. There are allegations that Iran is deploying foreign mercenaries, including militias linked to Iraq’s Hashd al-Shaabi, an Iranian-backed paramilitary umbrella group. This hints that the crack runs deeper. It has exposed how demoralised and fractured the IRGC and Basij forces have become.

There were unverified reports of a leaked audio recording attributed to Ahmad-Reza Radan, the regime’s police chief. In the clip, he admits that the armed forces were running away from the people.”

Speculations are that Khamenei and the Islamic leadership are considering fleeing to  Russia. The Ayatollah could escape into Vladimir Putin's arms if the growing national  unrest spreads to his closest protectors. The plan, called "Plan B" by the British media,  would include 86-year-old Supreme Leader and 20 close people, including his son Mojtaba, fleeing to Moscow. Multiple Russian aircraft were seen landing in Tehran early this month.

And, the million-dollar question. Will the US intervene? President Donald Trump has  stated that the US was ready to act in support of protests in Iran. “I’ve warned them that if they do anything bad to these people, we’re going to hit them very hard. I’ve said it very loud and very clear, that’s what we’re going to do,” Trump told Fox News on Thursday.

This may sound like the US could intervene, but experts say it is more likely aimed at  injecting economic anxiety and political volatility than signaling imminent military action.