A year after the ceasefire agreement that brought a formal pause to more than twelve months of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah in November 2024, relations between Israel and Lebanon remain fragile, and the risk of renewed hostilities is growing.
Although the ceasefire was meant to halt cross-border attacks, the United Nations peacekeeping mission in Lebanon has recorded more than 10,000 Israeli air and ground violations inside Lebanese territory.
The sense that the truce is rapidly eroding was reinforced by a recent escalation in which Israel assassinated Hezbollah’s top military commander, Haytham Ali Tabtabai, in a strike on Beirut’s southern suburbs.
Hezbollah’s deputy leader, Naim Qassem, described the killing as a blatant aggression and a heinous crime.
Reports indicated that Tabtabai had been meeting four aides to prepare for future actions when he was hit. Qassem promised that Hezbollah would respond at a time of its choosing. He said the group recognised that a new war was possible, while also acknowledging that one might yet be avoided. He urged Lebanon to prepare a comprehensive plan that relies on its army and its people to confront Israel.
The November 2024 agreement rested on two principal commitments.
Lebanon was required to remove all non-state armed groups and their assets beginning in the area south of the Litani River, leaving the Lebanese army as the only authorised armed force. Israel was required to withdraw gradually from the five border posts it occupies on hilltops inside Lebanese territory within 60 days. More than a year later, Israel still holds these positions and continues to carry out near-daily raids.
Israeli strikes on southern Lebanon have become routine, and several attacks have also been launched on Beirut. Israel argues that these operations are aimed at preventing Hezbollah from rearming or rebuilding military infrastructure.
Lebanese officials dispute this and point to mounting civilian casualties. The Lebanese Ministry of Public Health recently reported that an Israeli airstrike killed 13 people in a Palestinian refugee camp.
Since the ceasefire, Israeli attacks have killed 127 civilians according to the United Nations' human rights office and more than 330 people according to Lebanon’s health ministry. Hezbollah insists that it has respected the terms of the ceasefire and that it has claimed responsibility for only one attack on an Israeli military post since November 2024.
A central obstacle to the success of the agreement is the disarmament of Hezbollah. The group is by far the most powerful military force in Lebanon and also a key political actor. It has rejected a United States-backed disarmament plan that the Lebanese government approved in August 2025.
Hezbollah has stated repeatedly that it will not discuss full disarmament until Israel halts its attacks, withdraws from the five occupied hilltops, and releases prisoners. This has placed the Lebanese state in a difficult position.
Although the government is politically committed to reducing the number of weapons outside state control, it cannot risk confronting Hezbollah by force, as this could tip the country into another civil war.
Despite these political limits, the Lebanese army has expanded its presence south of the Litani River in an attempt to reassert state authority in an area long dominated by Hezbollah. The army has increased its deployment to nearly 10,000 troops, closed eleven smuggling crossings along the Litani, and has begun extensive clearance of unexploded ordnance.
Since intensifying operations on September 5—following the government’s order to begin disarmament—troops have uncovered 74 tunnels, 175 rocket launchers, and 58 missiles. One tunnel in the Zibqin Valley stretched nearly 100 metres, and served as both a clinic and a storage facility. Israeli military spokesperson Avichay Adraee has dismissed these efforts as inadequate, claiming that Hezbollah continues to manipulate the Lebanese army.
Critics of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu say that he is prolonging the conflict to divert attention from legal and political troubles.
Meanwhile, the Lebanese government and army are caught in a cycle in which Israeli incursions provoke responses from non-state actors, that in turn trigger more Israeli retaliation.
It has weakened state institutions and undermined confidence in political processes. Only a stable Lebanese state able to exercise control over all armed groups can break this cycle.
They say this requires internal political cohesion and cannot be achieved solely through Israeli military pressure. Hezbollah’s leadership has expressed hope that the visit of Pope Leo to Lebanon will help encourage efforts to restore calm and bring an end to Israeli attacks.
