Although not an official state visit, the Donald Trump administration is preparing to host Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on Tuesday with the pomp and circumstance typical of such occasions. The arrival ceremony on the sweeping South Lawn is to be followed by a bilateral meeting in the Oval Office. Later, a signing ceremony and lunch in the Cabinet Room will formalise multiple economic and defense agreements between the United States and Saudi Arabia.
This visit marks the crown prince’s first trip to the White House in seven years, and his first to Washington since the international outcry over the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul in 2018.
Relations between Washington and Riyadh were strained in the aftermath of Khashoggi’s killing. While U.S. intelligence linked Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) to the operation, he denied ordering it. As the kingdom’s de facto ruler, he accepted responsibility but maintained his innocence. Former President Joe Biden called for Saudi Arabia to be treated as a pariah state. Yet, strategic interests in energy, defense, and technology ultimately outweighed calls for isolation. With Donald Trump’s return to the White House in 2025, transactional ties have been revived, including $600 billion in Saudi investment pledges and discussions on a defense pact.
Conventional wisdom holds that the United States and the Kingdom share strong historical partnerships. Under Trump, there is a palpable sense that his administration and the Saudi state enjoy a particularly close rapport. Yet in the early days of his presidency, unprecedented tariffs disrupted global trade, upending free trade agreements with regional countries. While Gulf states were not directly targeted, the ripple effects created macroeconomic risks. Even previous US administrations frequently employed geoeconomic instruments such as oil price caps, sanctions, and energy policies that advanced opposing interests.
Expect something extraordinary on November 18th. #Trump says it’s “more than a meeting” with #MBS - they’ll be honoring #SaudiArabia. Something big is coming. pic.twitter.com/QaXrX8r9A6
— 𝐌𝐢𝐜𝐡𝐚𝐞𝐥 𝐀𝐫𝐢𝐳𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐢 (@ColdBrief) November 15, 2025
Against this backdrop, MBS has sought to reposition himself as a broker of regional stability, highlighting efforts to repair ties with Iran, advance a ceasefire in Gaza, and reintegrate Syria into the Arab fold. This marks a significant shift for a leader once criticized for military interventions in Yemen.
Domestically, the 40‑year‑old crown prince has spearheaded an unprecedented social revolution. He curtailed the powers of the religious police, sidelined clerics, and dismantled decades‑old restrictions. Women now enjoy freedoms once punishable by law, including driving, working, and mixing in public spaces. Saudi Arabia has rapidly transformed from a socially conservative state into a hub of cultural, entertainment, and sporting events. Yet, challenges remain. The kingdom must sustain growth momentum, diversify its economy, and create well‑paying jobs for its youthful population. The central question is how Saudi Arabia will respond to lower oil prices and whether Vision 2030 reforms have effectively diversified the economy.
Recent performance suggests progress. The non‑oil sector has grown strongly, inflation remains contained, and unemployment has fallen to record lows. Tourism is expanding rapidly, signaling diversification. While lower oil revenues have produced fiscal and current account deficits, these are manageable given Saudi Arabia’s large asset holdings and low debt levels. The direct impact of global trade tensions on the Saudi economy is limited, but prolonged low oil prices could constrain the kingdom’s ability to finance its ambitious investment and diversification strategy.
US energy independence brought about by the shale revolution of the mid‑2000s has reshaped global oil markets. As the world’s largest producer of oil and gas, the United States now behaves in ways that sometimes conflict with Gulf interests. Washington has weaponised the international financial system against rivals such as Russia, imposed oil price caps to limit Moscow’s revenues, and pursued technological protectionism aimed at curbing China’s development in disruptive technologies. These great‑power dynamics have affected US–Saudi relations.
Yet, Saudis are agents in their own right. They have cultivated growing ties with China, not only through trade but increasingly through financial sector linkages, adding another layer of complexity to their global positioning.
MBS represents a generational shift in Saudi leadership, widely regarded as the most audacious and consequential figure in the kingdom’s modern history. Since becoming crown prince in 2017, he has pursued ambitious reforms and dominates public life in Saudi Arabia. His image and initiatives are omnipresent, shaping perceptions of modernization and progress. Internationally, he has propelled Saudi Arabia into the global sports arena, merging the PIF‑backed LIV Golf circuit with the PGA Tour, attracting soccer icons such as Cristiano Ronaldo, and securing hosting rights for the 2029 Asian Winter Games while bidding for the 2034 FIFA World Cup. The share of oil in GDP has fallen, and oil revenue now accounts for 60 percent of government income, compared to 80 percent a decade ago.
Trump has made no secret of his fondness for Mohammed bin Salman, and both leaders expect tangible outcomes from this meeting, continuing a long tradition of pragmatic bilateral relations. At a press conference last week, Secretary of State Marco Rubio emphasized that the broader calculus guiding the relationship prioritizes national interests and regional strategy. Shared priorities, energy, defense, and emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence continue to anchor the alliance. As Mohammed bin Salman steps onto the South Lawn, the symbolism is clear: despite past strains, US-Saudi relations remain rooted in strategic necessity, transactional pragmatism, and a shared vision of regional stability.
Vaishali Basu Sharma is a security and economic affairs analyst.
