The South West monsoon has begun with a significant 64% rainfall deficit across India, receiving only 19.2 mm of rain in its first twelve days against an average of 53.7 mm, with large areas of central, southern, and eastern India showing a disturbing lack of cloud cover and minimal rainfall, though clouds are present over the Himalayas and northern West Bengal, and the monsoon remains weak near the Arabian Sea branch. Meteorologists attribute this deficit to westerly winds in the upper atmosphere shifting south of their normal position, disrupting the eastward wind flow that controls monsoon air, cloud formation, and rain, but predict potential improvement as these westerly winds are expected to weaken by the end of the week, potentially leading to increased rainfall.

The South West monsoon has begun with a significant 64% rainfall deficit across India, receiving only 19.2 mm of rain in its first twelve days against an average of 53.7 mm, with large areas of central, southern, and eastern India showing a disturbing lack of cloud cover and minimal rainfall, though clouds are present over the Himalayas and northern West Bengal, and the monsoon remains weak near the Arabian Sea branch. Meteorologists attribute this deficit to westerly winds in the upper atmosphere shifting south of their normal position, disrupting the eastward wind flow that controls monsoon air, cloud formation, and rain, but predict potential improvement as these westerly winds are expected to weaken by the end of the week, potentially leading to increased rainfall.

The South West monsoon has begun with a significant 64% rainfall deficit across India, receiving only 19.2 mm of rain in its first twelve days against an average of 53.7 mm, with large areas of central, southern, and eastern India showing a disturbing lack of cloud cover and minimal rainfall, though clouds are present over the Himalayas and northern West Bengal, and the monsoon remains weak near the Arabian Sea branch. Meteorologists attribute this deficit to westerly winds in the upper atmosphere shifting south of their normal position, disrupting the eastward wind flow that controls monsoon air, cloud formation, and rain, but predict potential improvement as these westerly winds are expected to weaken by the end of the week, potentially leading to increased rainfall.

Twelve days since the start of the South West monsoon, the country received only 19.2 mm of rain, compared to the average of 53.7 mm, according to the data released by the Indian Meterological Department. This means a deficit of 64 per cent in rainfall across the country.

There is a dearth of rain in large areas of central, southern and eastern India, as evidenced from the satellite images released on Monday. The image paints a disturbing picture, with the type of cloud cover that usually envelops the country largely absent. The sky is unusually clear in most areas, eliminating the possibility of any showers, despite the monsoon technically entering the north and south of West Bengal.

However, there are rain clouds gathered over the Himalayas in northeast India and in the  northern part of Gangetic West Bengal. The monsoon is currently very weak near the Arabian Sea branch.

Where did the rains go?

Meteorologists say there is no shortage of water vapour, and the problem is hidden a  few kilometres above the surface, in the atmosphere. The westerly wind, a  fast-moving  current of air flowing in the upper layers of the atmosphere, has shifted much further south than its normal position, disrupting the eastward wind flow.

The flow of monsoon air, cloud formation and rain in India is controlled by the eastward wind. The stronger-than-normal westerly wind is hindering this phenomenon, starving the rain clouds.

But things could improve. Weathermen predict that westerly winds may weaken towards the end of the week, causing more rainfall.

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