Uttar Pradesh: SP-Congress alliance looks strong against BJP, but Mayawati outreach clouds unity narrative

With political parties in Uttar Pradesh already beginning preparations for next year’s Assembly elections, analysts believe two dominant factors could shape the outcome of the contest.

The first is the seemingly water-tight alliance between the Samajwadi Party and the Congress, which many believe could significantly benefit the Opposition across the state. The second is the BJP’s attempt to consolidate majority votes through polarisation, a strategy that could strengthen the saffron camp.

However, at a time when the SP-Congress alliance should be building up trust with each other, a small section of Congress leaders wants to bring back Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) chief Mayawati into the bloc, or, just like some leaders in Uttar Pradesh say, they want to go separately with Mayawati. However, senior Congress leaders who previously held important positions in the UP unit argue that such moves could politically damage both the Congress and the Opposition alliance.

They contend that a large section of the BSP’s traditional cadre base has already shifted towards the SP. An alliance with Mayawati, they say, could create two major complications for the Opposition — first, it could revive Mayawati’s political relevance, and second, it could unsettle the Congress’s existing ally, the SP.

"Something should be done about it by the top leaders in the AICC so that this can be nipped in the bud as early as possible. This thought is dangerous for the Opposition," a national spokesperson of Congress said.

Interestingly, senior Congress leaders Rajendra Pal Gautam and Tanuj Punia had recently attempted to visit Mayawati but returned without meeting her after reportedly receiving no response from her.

While leaders close to them maintained that the visit was merely a courtesy call regarding her health, another section within the Congress viewed it differently. According to them, both leaders, currently active in Uttar Pradesh politics ahead of the elections, may have been attempting to elevate their own political stature by opening a line of communication with Mayawati.

Later, Lok Sabha MP Tanuj Punia clarified in a video statement that the visit to Mayawati’s residence was a personal programme undertaken by him and Rajendra Pal Gautam. He further stated that the Indian National Congress had not officially authorised any meeting with Mayawati.

Yet, several opposition leaders believe the SP-Congress alliance is strongly positioned for the 2027 Assembly elections. “UP is not like Bihar or West Bengal,” said Congress spokesperson Puneet Pathak.

Congress leaders argue that the Opposition’s performance in Bihar during the Lok Sabha elections was underwhelming, while Uttar Pradesh delivered a major setback to the BJP. The SP-Congress alliance won 43 out of 80 Lok Sabha seats in the state at a time when many political observers had predicted a saffron sweep.

They also point to Bihar’s Assembly election experience, where coordination issues between the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Congress at senior levels affected the Opposition’s overall performance.

“In West Bengal, Mamata lost because there was anti-incumbency after being in power for more than a decade. That is not the situation in UP. Here, we are in the Opposition, and anti-incumbency against the Yogi government is steadily mounting,” Puneet said.

Political observers also believe that if the Opposition maintains coordination and avoids signalling internal fractures, particularly in seat-sharing arrangements, unlike Bihar, where friendly contests on more than half a dozen seats sent a message of incomplete partnership between RJD and Congress, the SP-Congress alliance could receive a substantial boost ahead of the 2027 battle.