As counting for the 2026 Assembly elections across Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Puducherry, and West Bengal nears an end, the spotlight has shifted back to what the exit polls predicted, and how the actual elections turned out.
Only the Falta constituency in West Bengal is scheduled for a repoll on May 21, with the results to be declared on May 24.
West Bengal
West Bengal has seen the BJP garner wins in 206 seats, which is well past the majority mark of 148 in the 294-seat state Assembly.
The TMC, in contrast, has got 79 seats—well below the mark—with West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee losing her Bhabanipur seat to the BJP's Suvendu Adhikari.
Exit polls from P-MARQ had predicted a BJP sweep of 150-175 seats, while it gave a 118-138 figure for the TMC.
Exit polls from Matrize and Poll Diary had also predicted similar wins for the BJP in the state.
While Matrize predicted 146-161 seats for the BJP, Poll Diary claimed a broader figure of 142-171 seats. In contrast, the TMC was projected to get 125-140 seats by Matrize, while Poll Diary had said that it would only get 99-127 seats.
Chanakya Strategies had projected a 150-160 figure for the BJP, similar to the P-MARQ survey, and 130-140 seats for the TMC.
However, it was only Peoples Pulse that had projected a different result, claiming that the TMC would retain its power in the state with a 178-187 sweep, giving the BJP just 95-110 seats.
Kerala
Kerala saw the Congress-led UDF alliance win a whopping 63 seats, which is well past the majority mark of 71 seats in the 140-seat Assembly.
The CPI(M)-led LDF alliance, in contrast, trailed far off the mark with just 26 seats, while the IUML came in a close third at 22, and the BJP got 3 seats.
The Manorama News C-Voter survey had projected the UDF to win 82-94 seats, while the LDF figure stood at 44-56 seats and the NDA at 1-3 seats.
According to CNN-News18, the UDF was expected to win 70-80 seats, the LDF was to get 58-68 seats, and 0-4 seats had been estimated for the BJP-led NDA alliance.
Axis My India and Chanakya Strategies followed suit, with 78-90 and 72-80 figures projected for the UDF respectively.
The two surveys had also predicted 49-62 and 58-64 figures for the LDF respectively, while the NDA got 0-3 and 1-3.
People Insight had claimed that the UDF would win a modest estimate of 66-76 seats, with 58-68 seats for the LDF, and a higher 10-14 for the NDA.
Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu saw actor-politician Vijay and his TVK register a shock sweep across the state, garnering wins in 107 seats, but failing to cross the halfway mark of 118 seats for Tamil Nadu's 234-seat Assembly.
In contrast, the DMK alliance managed to win 73 seats, while the AIADMK alliance managed to get 53 seats.
Exit polls from P-MARQ and Matrize both predicted that the DMK would retain power in the state.
P-MARQ estimated that the DMK+ would get 125-145 seats, while the AIADMK+ would get 65-85 seats, and that the TVK would get 16-26. Matrize stated that the DMK+ could get 122-132 seats, 87-100 for the AIADMK+, and 10-12 for the TVK.
Today's Chanakya, however, had predicted that the DMK+ would rule the roost with 114-136 seats, but had also said that the TVK would be the primary Opposition, with 52-74 seats. The AIADMK+ had been touted to get 34-56 seats.
However, it was only Axis My India that predicted that the TVK would actually lead in the state, projecting a 98-120 figure for Vijay's party, followed by 92-110 seats for the DMK+ and 22-32 seats for the AIADMK+.
Assam
Assam saw incumbent CM Himanta Biswa Sarma from the BJP-led NDA alliance comfortably hold his own against the Congress-led alliance, getting 82 seats to cross the magic mark of 64 seats in the state's 126-seat Assembly.
In contrast, the Congress-led alliance managed to get 19 seats, which is far off the mark.
Exit polls from Axis My India had said that the BJP would sweep the state with 88-100 seats, and that the Congress would get 24-36 seats.
P-MARQ and Matrize had predicted similar NDA sweeps.
As per P-MARQ, the NDA alliance was projected to get 82-94 seats, while Matrize had predicted it could get 85-95 seats.
In contrast, P-MARQ had said that the Congress-led alliance could only get 30-40 seats across the state, while Matrize had predicted an even lower figure of 25-32 seats.
People's Pulse and Poll Diary had also predicted wide disparities in seat projections for the NDA and Congress alliances.
People's Pulse had estimated that the BJP-led NDA alliance would get 68-72 seats, while Poll Diary had raised its figures to 86-101 for the saffron party.
However, People's Pulse had projected 22-26 seats for the Congress-led alliance, while Poll Diary had given them an estimate of 15-26.
Puducherry
Puducherry saw the incumbent CM N. Rangaswamy of the AINRC-led NDA alliance winning 16 seats and reaching a majority in the Union Territory (UT) that has 16 as the majority mark in the 30-member Assembly.
In contrast, the DMK+ managed to win just 6 seats, while the TVK+ got just 3 seats.
Axis My India had pointed to a clean sweep for the incumbent NDA alliance with 16-20 seats, while the DMK-led SPA alliance was touted to get just 6-8 seats. The TVK alliance was poised to receive 2-4 seats.
People's Pulse had predicted a similar trend, with 16-19 seats projected for the NDA alliance, while it had estimated the DMK+ would get 10-12 seats. Only 1-2 seats had been projected for the other contenders.