Some exit polls have predicted a sweep for the Bharatiya Janata Party(BJP) in West Bengal in the 2026 Assembly elections. While an anti-incumbency factor against the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC) has been instrumental for voters while casting their vote, there are various factors while working out the political arithmetic in the 294-member assembly. The high voter turnout overall of 92.9 per cent might signal an anti-incumbency wave or it could be the Special Intensive Revision (SIR). Many migrant workers and voters working outside the state have travelled back to West Bengal to cast their vote, in fear of their names being deleted from future voter lists.
Reality is that the political arithmetic when referring the 2021 Assembly election results, BJP has to break even in South and Central West Bengal. The saffron party is strong in North Bengal, West and East Bengal. TMC is organisationally strong in Central and South Bengal. Of the 294 seats, TMC won 215 seats, BJP 77 and 1 seat in Kalimpong was won by an independent candidate.
In the first phase where 152 constituencies in 16 districts went to polls on April 23. Here are the 60 seats the BJP won in 2021:
Cooch Behar – 7 of 9 seats
Alipurduar – All 5 seats
Jalpaiguri – 4 of 7 seats
Kalimpong – 0 of 1 seat
Darjeeling – All 5 seats
Uttar Dinajpur - 2 of 9 seats
Dakshin Dinajpur - 3 of 6 seats
Malda - 4 of 12 seats
Murshidabad - 2 of 22 seats
Birbhum - 1 of 11 seats
Paschim Bardhaman - 3 of 9 seats
Bankura - 8 of 12 seats
Purulia - 6 of 9 seats
Paschim Medinipur - 2 of 15 seats
Purba Medinipur - 7 of 16 seats
Jhargram – 0 of 4 seats
In the second phase where 142 constituencies in 7 districts went to polls on April 29, here are the 18 seats BJP won in 2021:
North 24 Parganas - 5 of 33 seats
South Parganas - 0 of 31 seats
Howrah - 0 of 16 seats
Hoogly - 4 of 18 seats
Kolkata - 0 of 11 seats
Nadia - 9 of 17 seats
Purba Bardhaman - 0 of 16 seats
BJP has to break even in Jhargram, Purba Bardhman, Howrah, Kolkata and South 24 Parganas districts with at least a 50 per cent strike rate to emerge as the winner overall in the 2026 Assembly elections.
“If BJP has to win, they have to win Kolkata, South 24 Parganas, Howrah and Purba Bardhman in the second phase of elections, because in these four districts the BJP had zero seats in the 2021 Assembly elections. This is the old stronghold of Trinamool Congress (TMC),” says Professor Maidul Islam, a political science professor at the Centre for Studies in Social Sciences.
Of the five districts, South 24 Parganas district is the toughest with 31 seats and almost a 35 per cent Muslim population. “South 24 Parganas is particularly important because it has been the stronghold of TMC since 2001 and this is the district from where TMC formed the zilla parishad in 2009. So, even before coming to power for the BJP, South 24 Parganas is a big thing. TMC was a Kolkata party, they had won Municipal elections in 2000, 2010,” adds Prof Islam.
“So, if a party wins in South Bengal, they are the king, otherwise there is no chance. Historically, TMC has been a party of South Bengal, but they are organisationally weaker in North Bengal since 1998. It is only since 2011 after they came to power, TMC won some seats in North Bengal,” he says.
There is also another aspect to consider for the BJP. In Nadia and North 24 Parganas districts which are the Hindu minority Matua belts, the Matuas are dissatisfied with the BJP and there is some kind of wedge between BJP Matuas and TMC Matuas, explains Prof Islam.
The political numbers of South Bengal give TMC the confidence that they will emerge victorious despite the anti-incumbency wave and the SIR. However, the BJP is oozing confidence that the SIR, heavy deployment of Central Armed Paramilitary Forces (CAPF) and web casting in all of around 80,000 polling booths, genuine voters have their chance to exercise their voting rights for the party they favour. BJP is also confident of the anti-incumbency votes that will give the saffron party an edge over the ruling TMC.
