India should brace for an early arrival of the southwest monsoon, a latest weather update by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has reportedly said. At a time when many parts of the country are reeling under soaring temperatures, the news of the showers arriving by late May is a relief for the public.
Citing the ECMWF's sub-seasonal charts released earlier in the week, a television channel reported that the southwest monsoon is likely to reach the Andaman and Nicobar Islands between 18 and 25 May. These will thus be the first in the country to experience the showers.
Later, during the period between 25 May and 1 June, the monsoon pulse is expected to push further west and north. The formation of strong westerly winds over the southeast Arabian Sea could direct moisture straight towards the southwest coast, which could bring above-normal rainfall to Kerala and the southern districts of Tamil Nadu. Between 25 May and 1 June, the Bay of Bengal will continue to receive good rainfall, helping to maintain moisture in the atmosphere and supporting the further spread of rains.
According to ECMWF models, strong winds currently blowing from the southwest are building up over the southern Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Sea. These winds are expected to carry rainfall ranging from 30 to 60 mm above normal in the islands from 18 to 25 May, the report said. It further stated that there is a 20–40% chance of a tropical system forming north of the Andamans, which could boost the rains by pulling in more moisture. El Niño, which has been an impediment to monsoons in past years, will reportedly remain neutral this time around.
Rains usually begin to lash the southernmost coasts of Kerala state around 1 June and spread across the whole country by mid-July.
No relief from heat
Meanwhile, the mercury in several parts of Delhi, Rajasthan, Haryana, and West Bengal on Wednesday breached the 42°C mark, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasting heatwave conditions over major parts of northwest, central, and eastern India in the next four to five days.
ALSO READ:
According to the IMD, parts of Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, and Delhi may see heatwave conditions on 24–25 April, while similar conditions are likely to prevail over parts of Uttar Pradesh (23–26 April), Rajasthan (24–26 April), Madhya Pradesh (23–26 April), Vidarbha and Chhattisgarh (24–27 April), and Gangetic West Bengal, Bihar, and Jharkhand (22–23 April).