The campaign for the Assam assembly polls closed on a deeply polarising note. While past elections in the state have historically turned on questions of Axomiya identity and pride, this cycle took a sharper turn — with ‘foreign’ connections surfacing as an unlikely talking point.
The tone was set much earlier. Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma levelled allegations against Congress state chief Gaurav Gogoi and his British wife, who briefly worked in the neighbouring country. Then, just as the campaign was winding up, Congress struck back, alleging that Sarma's wife held three passports and properties abroad. Sarma and his wife strongly denied the charges stoutly. A case was registered, and state police arrived at the residence of Congress leader Pawan Khera, in Delhi, who had first made these allegations in a press conference.
Sarma is not known to hold back. He has trained his fire on the Miya community, on alleged illegal Muslim immigrants, on Gogoi, and even on a relatively unknown candidate, Kunki Chowdhury, contesting from the Guwahati Central constituency. Chowdhury, who had little presence outside her seat, was catapulted into the spotlight after Sarma alleged that her mother had shared "beef" pictures on social media.
Elsewhere on the campaign trail, these polls have another distinct flavour as several Congress turncoats are contesting on BJP tickets, the most prominent among them being Pradyut Bordoloi and Bhupen Kumar Borah, whose defections signalled the extent of Sarma's political consolidation ahead of polling day. If the identity politics were much more pronounced, the shifting political allegiances ahead of the election would also be part of the conversation in the state.
The BJP government entered the elections with a solid report card — infrastructure projects, social welfare schemes, and sops for tea garden workers. Yet as polling day drew closer, the campaign pivoted away from governance toward identity and provocation.
Much like how Mamata Banerjee is the defining face of contests in neighbouring West Bengal, in Assam, it is Sarma who commands the stage. The BJP has claimed it will win between 95 and 102 seats. Congress maintains it will secure around 75, which is enough, the party argues, to deny the BJP a hat-trick.
Against these competing claims, what will matter most is which party is able to mobilise voters to the booth. The BJP's strategists have expressed confidence that the party's formidable organisational machinery and its dedicated cadre will be the decisive factor.
When the results are declared on May 4, they will carry consequences well beyond Dispur. An overwhelming majority for the BJP would mark a personal milestone for Sarma — this being the first assembly elections fought entirely under his direct stewardship, which would considerably lift his standing at the national level. A disappointing result, or the Congress achieving its stated goal of blocking a third consecutive BJP term, will be pinned on him alone.
Either way, the verdict in Assam is, at its core, a verdict on one man.