With over a week left for the Assembly elections in Kerala, the race has tightened between the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) led by the CPM, the United Democratic Front (UDF) led by the Congress and the NDA led by the BJP. However, a new survey has predicted the outcome of the three-pronged fight between both the fronts and the BJP.
According to the Manorama News C-Voter Mega Election Survey, the Congress-led UDF will emerge front-runners in the Assembly elections, winning over 69-81 seats in the 140-seat Assembly. The Left Front is expected to win 57 to 69 seats. The NDA is predicted to win one to five seats. The survey was conducted using around 90,000 samples in 140 assembly constituencies.
South Kerala
In the capital city of Thiruvananthapuram, the survey predicts the BJP's chances in two constituencies - Nemom and Kazhakootam. State BJP president and former Union Minister Rajeev Chandrasekhar is likely to win in Nemom, while former Union Minister V. Muraleedharan is also predicted to have a slight chance in Kazhakoottam constituency. Both these constituencies will witness a strong triangular contest.
The survey results predict that the Left Front will get eight to 10 seats in Thiruvananthapuram district, which has 14 assembly constituencies. The UDF is predicted to get two to four seats. The NDA is also predicted to get one to three seats.
In Alappuzha, the survey predicts the LDF will dominate with six to eight seats and the UDF one to three. The NDA will not get a single seat.
As for Pathamthitta, the survey predicts that the LDF will lose its dominance in the district. In 2021, the LDF won all five assembly constituencies in the district, but the UDF could win three to five seats. The Left Front is predicted to win zero to two seats. The survey says that the NDA has no chance of winning Pathanamthitta district this time too.
In Kollam, the survey predicts that there will be no Left wave this time, but the ruling front will perform better than the UDF. The Left Front may get five to seven seats in the district, and the UDF four to six seats. The survey also indicates that there are no constituencies in the Kollam district where the NDA has a chance of winning.
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North Kerala
The survey predicts that the UDF will make gains in the five districts of Malabar - Kasaragod, Kannur, Wayanad, Malappuram and Kozhikode. The prediction is that the UDF may get 25 to 34 seats out of the 48. The LDF will get 14 to 23 seats.
The LDF has the upper hand in Kasaragod with two to four seats, while the UDF may get one to three seats. The NDA may get zero to one seat while UDF may get up to 39% vote share.
In Kannur, the Left Front will continue to dominate. It can win up to six to eight seats, while in Wayanad, the UDF has the upper hand. It can win up to two to three seats in the seat.
As for Kozhikode, the Left Front has a slight advantage. It can win up to six to eight seats. The UDF has a chance of winning upto five to seven seats. In Malappuram, the LDF can get zero to two seats. However, with the strength of the Muslim League, the UDF is also likely to sweep the district. It is predicted to get 14-16 seats. It can get up to 49% vote share.
Central Kerala
In Central Kerala, the LDF has a clear lead in Palakkad. It is likely to win eight to 10 seats out of 12 constituencies. While the UDF may get two to four seats, the NDA has no chance of winning. In Thrissur, the LDF is likely to win nine to 11 seats out of 13 constituencies. The UDF will get two to four, while the NDA could get one.
In Ernakulam, the UDF may get 12-14 seats in the district with 14 constituencies. The LDF is expected to get up to two seats. The NDA has no chance anywhere. As for Idukki, the UDF may win two to five of the five seats. The Left Front will get a maximum of two seats, and the NDA has no chance of winning in Idukki either. In Kottayam, the UDF may win seven to nine seats and the LDF is predicted to win up to two seats. The NDA is not predicted to win any seats. The district has a total of nine seats.