On January 23, all the leaders of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in Tamil Nadu lined up on the dias with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, holding up their hands together. AIADMK general secretary Edappadi K. Palaniswami and Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK) leader T.T.V. Dhinakaran came together, shunning all their differences. The two had a joint press conference, sending a strong message of “unity” to everyone watching the political developments in the state. But a month later now, all the optics to keep the alliance active seems to have busted. NDA, which seemed active and bustling on January 23, when Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Madurantakam to launch the election campaign, is once again waiting for his visit to formally begin the election work.
After inaugurating the election office, Nainar Nagendran, president of the state unit of the BJP said that the seat-sharing talks will formally begin only after Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit on March 1. While there were indications to begin the seat-sharing talks on Thursday, there was no initiation of negotiations in both the BJP and the AIADMK camp. According to highly placed sources in the AIADMK, the seat allocation in the alliance will be decided only by the BJP. “We are the largest partner in the alliance. We will contest for the maximum number of seats. But the BJP committee will hold talks on behalf of the other partners,” a senior AIADMK leader told THE WEEK.
The national party is getting ready to do a hard bargain to secure the maximum number of seats from its larger partner AIADMK, based on its performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Union minister Piyush Goyal is all set to lead the talks for the BJP, while the AIADMK would be represented by Palaniswami and his party colleagues. The AIADMK has still not formally announced the committee to hold the seat-sharing talks.
BJP is believed to begin the negotiations with 50 seats. Incidentally, AMKK leader Dhinakaran had informed that he will hold talks for seat sharing only with the BJP as he has aligned with the NDA. Dhinakaran is in no mood to approach the AIADMK leadership for holding seat-sharing talks. And Dhinakaran had made it clear that he will not contest the elections and only his party men will be in the fray. AMMK, an offshoot of the AIADMK walked back into the NDA fold only in January after Piyush Goyal held talks with him. Though Palaniswami and Dhinakaran came up with a join press conference on January 23, the differences between the two seem to continue.
Sources in the BJP say the saffron party is not likely to settle for anything less than 35 seats and 15 for AMMK, based on their vote share in the 2021 and 2024 election. “We will not accept the same 20 seats that were allotted to us in 2021,” a senior BJP leader told THE WEEK. According to him, the AMMK wants to contest in at least 10 seats in south Tamil Nadu. The Dr. Anbumani Ramadoss faction of the PMK, which had already joined the NDA is likely to demand 10 seats.
On the other side the BJP will also hold seat-sharing talks on behalf of smaller partners in the alliance like A.C. Shanmugam’s New Justice Party, John Pandian’s Tamilaga Munnetra Kazhagam who want two seats each. The BJP on the other side is also trying to rope in senior Ramadoss faction of the PMK and also Krishnaswamy’s Puthiya Tamilagam which was part of the NDA once.
Though the numbers are being discussed among the party workers, no formal seat sharing talks have begun yet and the lack of cohesiveness among the partners of NDA indicates that the front is a non-starter.