The Congress party has struggled to win an election on its own since the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. The upcoming Assam assembly elections, where the Congress is the principal opposition and is preparing to dislodge the BJP government, provide the party with a crucial opportunity to regain its eroded political relevance and reassert its role as the principal national opposition.
The party currently runs only three governments on its own—Karnataka, Telangana and Himachal Pradesh—and is a junior partner in three others—Tamil Nadu, Jharkhand and Jammu & Kashmir. On the contrary, the BJP runs more than ten state governments independently and more than four states in collaboration with regional parties.
A win in Assam would help the Congress rebuild its base to influence other northeastern states, and at the same time politically defeat its bête noire, Himanta Biswa Sarma, whose rise in the BJP has proportionately led to the Congress’s decline.
“Assam was once a bastion of the Congress, but now the BJP is holding its ground firmly under Himanta Biswa Sarma, who has tightened his grip on the state organisation as well as the system, while frequently attacking the Congress,” a political analyst said.
“If the Congress fails to win the Assam elections, it could prove deeply damaging,” the analyst added, “It will send a message that the party is incapable of winning elections. Its organisational machinery, already under question, could suffer further erosion, driving politically sensitive leaders away from the leadership as well as from the organisation. Just as cadre enthusiasm is vital to winning elections, its absence could be a major setback for the national party.”
The track record of Congress since the 2024 general elections has been disappointing. In Haryana, where the stage was set for the Congress to tap into a decade-long anti-incumbency against the BJP, the party faltered at the final hurdle and lost the elections for the third straight time. It helped consolidate the BJP’s national brand at a time when it appeared dented after failing to secure a Lok Sabha majority on its own.
A similar pattern unfolded in Maharashtra, where the Maha Vikas Aghadi won 30 of the state’s 48 Lok Sabha seats, signalling a shift in public sentiment towards the opposition. Yet, months later, the alliance failed to replicate that performance in the assembly elections, falling short of crossing the 50 per cent mark in the 288-member House despite the Lok Sabha success.
However, the Congress has accused the Election Commission of India (EC) of working in tandem with the BJP and facilitating its electoral victories.
Notably, the Congress has been attempting to build grassroots networks and increase voter awareness to better manage booths and mobilise supporters during elections. The party is also collecting public feedback to help shape its manifesto and broaden its appeal among the people of Assam to keep its ears grounded and at the same time create an initial connection with the voters.
Assam Pradesh Congress chief Gaurav Gogoi had recently accused the ongoing Special Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls of large-scale voter manipulation, alleging that the state government is doing grave injustice to the people of Assam. “Vote theft is being carried out in the name of SIR by the Assam BJP,” he said.
He also questioned the role of EC, saying, “The Election Commission repeatedly questions only the Congress, while remaining silent on complaints against the ruling BJP.”
