Owaisi's AIMIM bets big on Seemanchal: Can it reshape Bihar's political landscape?

The second phase of the Bihar Assembly elections is expected to see a tight contest in the Seemanchal region, where Dalit and Muslim voters hold significant sway. In the context, all eyes are on Hyderabad MP and All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM)  chief Asaduddin Owaisi, who hopes to repeat his party’s 2020 performance of five seats.

Owaisi’s  focus is on the Muslim-dominated districts of Araria, Kishanganj and Katihar, and Purnea, where it won five seats in the 2020 Assembly elections.

The Seemanchal region, located on northeastern Bihar, has a Muslim population of approximately 47 per cent. Muslims form close to 68% of Kishanganj, around 44–45% in Katihar and Araria, and nearly 39% in Purnea. While a huge chunk of the voters were predominantly backers of RJD for long, they had been seeking a new leadership before Owaisi made his entry. In 2020, he won five seats, only to lose four of them to the RJD within two years when his MLA jumped ship. At present, AIMIM has just one MLA.

The party is contesting 15 seats, fielding four candidates each in Kishanganj and Purnia,  five in Katihar, and two in Araria. In these seats, it is attempting to channel the anger of  Muslim voters in its favor. Owaisi is active in the field this time, with the campaign focusing on how “we were humiliated” and how the RJD and  Congress have always viewed Muslims just as a vote bank.

“If those representing two percent of the population can become deputy chief ministers,  why can't those representing 18 percent become chief ministers?” Owaisi asks.

This has brought a section of Muslims, predominantly youth, behind Owaisi. If this support translates into votes, the Opposition Mahagathbandhan could lose a major vote share in the region.  

Strongholds of AIMIM in Bihar

The AIMIM has pinned its hopes on the Kochadhaman seat, where the RJD has fielded  Mujahid Alam, a JDU candidate, after denying the seat to Izhar Asfi, who had defected to the RJD from the AIMIM. The AIMIM has placed its faith in Sarwar Alam. In the seat, with  a Muslim population of approximately 68 percent, the campaign is entirely based on that premise.

In Bahadurganj, AIMIM's Tausif Alam and Congress's Musabbir Alam are facing  off. The party appears to be weaker in Thakurganj and Kishanganj, although it won the 2019 by-election in Kishanganj.

In Purnia, AIMIM's hold is strongest in Amour and Baisi. Akhtarul Iman won in Amour by  over 52,000 votes in 2020, and the party has given him the ticket this time as well. This seat is facing a triangular contest with the Congress and the JDU.

In Byasi, AIMIM's Ruknuddin won in 2020, although he is now with the RJD and did not receive a ticket. The RJD has fielded Haji Abdus Subhan, while the AIMIM has fielded Ghulam Sarwar. The BJP's Vinod Yadav is also in the fray, making the seat a triangular contest. In Kasba, AIMIM's Mohammad Shahnawaz Alam could dent the Grand Alliance's vote share.

In Dhamdaha, AIMIM's Ishtiyak Ahmed is further complicating the contest between JDU's Leshi Singh and RJD's Santosh Kushwaha. AIMIM has also put its weight behind the Muslim-majority seats in Katihar. In Pranpur, it received only 508 votes in 2020, but this time, it is trying to change the situation by fielding Aftab Alam.

In addition, AIMIM has fielded candidates in Katihar, Barari, Kadwa, and Balrampur. Araria and Jokihat, both Muslim-majority seats in Araria district, are at the center of AIMIM's ambitions. Manzoor Alam is the party's candidate in Araria, a seat Congress won in 2020 by a margin of 47,000 votes.