Bihar polls: Can Rahul Gandhi's 'vote chori' exposé sway Bihar voters against NDA and towards Mahagathbandhan?

While some political analysts believe the allegations could reinforce Mahagathbandhan support, especially among the youth, the deeply entrenched caste politics in Bihar might limit its overall impact

Rahul Gandhi Congress Leader Rahul Gandhi during his press conference on Vote Chori in New Delhi | Sanjay Ahlawat

The press conference conducted by Rahul Gandhi on November 5 was timed to create ripples across the country and hold the Election Commission of India and the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party responsible for electoral malpractices.

 It was strategically scheduled just a day before the Bihar Assembly elections. The thinking behind the scenes was to use it as the final nail in the coffin—to wake up the people of Bihar so that they could vote against the NDA on November 6. But the question lingers: can the second vote chori presentation influence voters and impact the elections?

According to political analysts, the first presentation on 'vote chori' was a one-off that made people see the electoral processes as compromised and provided ammunition not only to the Congress but also to Opposition leaders, and perhaps to more than 60 per cent of voters who did not vote for the BJP in the recent Lok Sabha elections. The second presentation is seen to have revealed facts about how the entire state of Haryana was “stolen” by the Election Commission.

Political commentator Aditya Rathi says, “If the Election Commission does not come out with answers to the claims Rahul Gandhi has made, it will be obvious to the discerning people that the country’s most respected institution has been compromised.”

"When it comes to whether the press conference will impact voting in Bihar, it may or may not. A few people questioning the government’s legitimacy may now decide not to vote for the BJP-led NDA and instead support the Mahagathbandhan. However, most people vote along caste lines, so this issue may primarily reinforce those already supporting the Mahagathbandhan. Moreover, much of today’s media narrative is built on pre-existing perceptions. Nevertheless, this election will reveal what people have truly voted for, especially with a 20-year-long anti-incumbency sentiment at play."

Notably, Bihar is a state where caste sentiments play a significant role, and political parties tend to focus their last-phase planning on micromanagement—ensuring that independent caste-based candidates are handled carefully so they do not damage the electoral outcome or divert attention from core regional issues. The BJP, in particular, is known for making last-minute tweaks to its electoral strategy. However, Nitish Kumar, who has been in power for nearly two decades, has implemented numerous welfare schemes that have helped him build a strong and loyal voter base.

Many political observers believe that this election appears to be divided between two key voter groups—youth and women. While the youth are seen leaning towards the Mahagathbandhan, women have largely remained steadfast supporters of Nitish Kumar, owing to his welfare initiatives and social policies that directly benefited them.

Bihar Pradesh Congress Committee spokesperson Gyan Ranjhan told THE WEEK, "The 'appointment' of a Brazilian model as the Election Commission’s brand ambassador exposes how they came to power: by manipulating and stealing votes rather than winning them fairly. Young people and ordinary citizens in Bihar have understood that the central government led by Modi and several BJP-led state governments were formed through vote theft."

He added, "Our yatra and the Voter Adhikar Yatra in Bihar clearly demonstrated this: the large numbers joining those marches turned the issue into a public outcry. I believe people have seen the truth, and we will form the government; those who seized power by stealing votes will be sent packing."

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