Bihar polls: Congress faces direct contests against JD(U)-BJP; will its strategy boost strike rate?

The Congress is contesting around six seats involving friendly contests with its Mahagathbandhan partners, and 54 alliance-backed seats in the upcoming Bihar polls. However, all of these 54 constituencies fall in areas where the party will face direct contests with the Janata Dal (United) and Bharatiya Janata Party — both of which have a deep connect at the grassroots. 

Meanwhile, the Rashtriya Janata Dal is contesting from almost all the seats where weaker partners of NDA have been fielded, like LJP led by Chirag Paswan, HAM and Upendra Kushwaha's formation.

A Congress leader said, “It is not that the Congress has taken barren seats. We have negotiated a good deal for several winnable constituencies. But, the RJD has managed to secure most of the seats with a higher winnability ratio, largely because of its solid cadre network on the ground. The Congress’s cadre strength, on the other hand, has eroded over the years.”

According to senior leaders, while the Congress’s seat share may not ensure a high strike rate, the party will attempt to perform better than last time, when it won only 19 out of the 70 constituencies it contested. A Congress leader said, “The party has identified 25 seats where it can perform well and is focusing on those. If we win those seats, we believe we’ll be in a strong position to contribute to government formation and also improve our strike rate — even if our overall seat tally remains close to last time.”

Before the seat-sharing negotiations, the party had listed around 75 panel seats where more than one candidate was evaluated as a potential nominee, since it was uncertain about the exact number of seats it would receive. “We had made preparations for these seats and managed to get many of them. We didn’t know which ones would come our way, so groundwork in advance was essential,” said a Congress functionary.

Despite its weakened cadre, the Congress managed to generate some momentum through its Vote Chori Yatra, led by Congress leader Rahul Gandhi two months earlier. The yatra set the wheels rolling for the party, which was seeking to rebuild its cadre base and attract new members ahead of the assembly elections. 

Another senior Congress leader said, "The party got something to hook on, something to talk about and something to show to the people as an opposition, which helped the whole Opposition bloc to corner the ruling bloc. The last phase of campaigning is important but the first phase of campaign generates energy and hope, where we think the opposition succeeded. At that time, everyone was saying it would be a handsome down victory for the National Democratic Alliance, but we have made it neck and neck. And we are sure that we will perform better than before as a unit."

Also, according to party leaders, ever since the new leadership took over, people have started joining the Congress again - as compared to the earlier phase when there was hardly any real growth in the cadre. The party has also tried to build a new network of politicians who can evolve and help the organisation expand. This is evident from the ticket distribution, where being young was a key criterion. 

A senior Congress leader said, “Although there is a section of senior leaders unhappy with the party’s new experiment, the Congress leadership has taken decisions with future growth in mind. It has deliberately refused to rehabilitate old leaders who had tried to control the organisation on their own terms and demanded tickets for their sons.”