A weather expert has warned that Tamil Nadu and Puducherry will receive a significantly active Northeast Monsoon next month, with a high likelihood of cyclonic rainfall activity. Tamil Nadu is set to receive the Northwest monsoon by the first week of October, according to experts.
According to Delta Weatherman’s Hemachander, an independent weather blogger, the state will receive excess monsoon rainfall, ranging between 54 cm and 60 cm, representing a 20% to 35% increase above the normal of 45 cm.
He predicted that coastal districts, such as Chennai, Thiruvallur, Kanchipuram, Chengalpet, Villupuram, Puducherry, Cuddalore, Mayiladuthurai, Nagapattinam, Thiruvarur, and Thanjavur, are expected to experience above-normal to excess rainfall, with a high likelihood of cyclone activity in November and December.
He attributed this to La Niña and negative IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole) phenomena. “Furthermore, oceanic oscillations (Madden-Julian oscillation, equatorial Rossby wave) will affect the eastern Indian Ocean and South China Sea regions, which will be favorable for the northeast monsoon. The tropical air mass will persist for long days near the latitude of Tamil Nadu and Sri Lanka this year, causing successive events to move towards Tamil Nadu. Due to this, the northeast monsoon in Tamil Nadu will be recorded 20 percent to 35 percent more than normal, he told Tamil website Dinathanthi.
He forecast that this year would be a year of rain due to successive events, including storms. During the northeast monsoon season, especially in late November and early December, successive storms are likely to form, and the storm symbols will move towards the delta, north Tamil Nadu, and the southern Andhra coastal areas.
“The majority of the western Indian Ocean is showing a cooling trend, with an average sea surface temperature of 25-26 degrees Celsius. The average sea surface temperature (SST) for the Bay of Bengal was also observed to be 29 degrees Celsius. While 26.5 degree Celsius is enough to host the Cyclonic storm. Bay of Bengal current temperature is 28/29 degrees Celsius, and it is expected to increase a bit in the upcoming few weeks, especially before the peak period of the Northeast monsoon,” he added.