This July is the hottest month ever in 1,20,000 years - with an average temperature about 1.5°C hotter than the planet was before it was warmed by burning coal, oil and gas, and other human activities.
The analysis released on Thursday evening by Karsten Haustein, a climate scientist at Leipzig University found that the global average near-surface temperature in July will exceed the previous warmest July by a considerable margin. Using forecast data until the end of the month, the analysis found that July will be more than 0.2°C (+/- 0.1°C) warmer than July 2019, which is the current warmest. It is therefore virtually certain that July 2023 will set a new global temperature record.
According to Haustein, “Such dramatic climatic changes also trigger unprecedented marine and continental heat waves, increasing the risk for record shattering temperature extremes across the globe”. China, Southern Europe and North have experienced record or near-record temperatures these past weeks, as has the North Atlantic ocean. While Northern and parts of Western Europe were lucky enough to sit under clouds for much of the month, most other densely populated regions saw above average temperatures, just as one would expect on a rapidly warming planet.
Among the world’s top polluters is India (just behind China and the USA) which has the opportunity to adopt tougher targets, with the African Climate Action Summit, G20 and UN Climate Action summits in September- important milestones on the road to COP28 in Dubai.
With current policies, the 2.8°C temperature rise that would result, will threaten food production, water supplies, human health, people living near the sea, national economies and the survival of much of the natural world.
According to a report of the Intergovernmental Planet of Climate Change (IPCC), “Climate change is a threat to human well-being and planetary health. Any further delay in concerted anticipatory global action on adaptation and mitigation will miss a brief and rapidly closing window of opportunity to secure a liveable and sustainable future for all”.
The IPCC report make clear that fossil fuel use is the main factor driving global warming: “In 2019, around 79% of global GHG emissions came from energy, industry, transport and buildings, and 22% came from agriculture, forestry and other land use. CO2 emissions reductions from efficiency measures are dwarfed by rising emissions in multiple sectors”, the report said.
Dr Roxy Mathew Koll, climate scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology said, “Monsoon rainfall patterns over India have seen a climatic shift in recent decades. The most significant change is that instead of having moderate rains spread out through the monsoon season, we have long dry periods intermittent with short spells of heavy rains…. These erratic patterns in the monsoon have a huge impact on the agriculture in the country which is still largely rain-fed. The pace of global warming is now accelerated and we need urgent action — as these extreme conditions will intensify in the near future. Climate action and adaptation at local (panchayat) levels should go parallel with mitigation at global and national levels.” He also expressed his concern that there was less focus on local adaptation.
“Instead of waiting for weather forecasts every year, we need to disaster-proof locally, based on sub-district wise assessment”, he added.
