The anatomy of a campaign: How BJP and TMC grappled on the edge in West Bengal

As the eight-phase, tightly contested elections came to a close in the state of West Bengal, numerous exit polls forecast conflicting results in the fight between the incumbent Trinamool Congress and the BJP. The Republic-CNX polls gave the BJP a slight edge by projecting 138-148 seats for the party in the 294-seat assembly and 128-138 to the TMC. However, Times Now-C Voter predicted a clear majority for the TMC by projecting 162 seats for the party and 115 for the BJP. Jan Ki Baat exit polls, however, predicted a strong majority for the BJP in West Bengal, giving it 162-185 seats, against 104-121 to the ruling TMC.

With the vote counting underway, how have the estimated 80 per cent of over 84.77 lakh voters in the state exercised their franchise?

The consequences of the election

The result will decide whether Mamata Banerjee, who has been in power for 10 years and is arguably fighting the toughest poll of her political career, has been able to thwart the challenge by the battle-hardened election army of the BJP led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah.

The BJP, which had just three seats in the 294-member Assembly in the 2016 Assembly polls and went to win 18 out of 42 seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha election, had pulled out all stops in the state in a determined bid to oust Banerjee, a vocal critic of Prime Minister Modi, and add another state to its tally of 17. 

Arguably the most bitterly fought in a long time, the polls got mired in controversy the very day the Election Commission announced an eight-phase election schedule for the politically volatile state on February 26, drawing accusation from the ruling TMC that it was aimed at helping the BJP. Barring Assam, where the exercise was held in three stages on March 27, April 1 and 6, votes were cast in Tamil Nadu, Kerala and the Union Territory of Puducherry in a single phase on April 6.

In Bengal, despite the elections dragging on for over a month—from March 27 to April 29—voter enthusiasm hardly showed any sign of waning, with the turnout ranging between 76.90 per cent in the 7th phase, held amid a raging COVID-19 pandemic, and 86.11 per cent in the second phase, when the contagion seemed like ebbing away. The December 10, 2020 incident in Diamond Harbour near Kolkata, when BJP president J.P. Nadda's convoy came under attack by alleged TMC supporters, was portentous of how grimly fought will the elections be a little over three months later.

Mamata Banerjee, arguably fighting the toughest poll of her enviable political career against the battle-hardened election army of the BJP led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah, conjured up the weapon of Bengali subnationalism, something never seen before in West Bengal politics, to mount a counteroffensive. The BJP responded to her "jingoistic" tactical manoeuvre of starting the insider-outsider debate by invoking Syama Prasad Mookerjee, the founder of Jana Sangh, the forerunner of the saffron party, calling itself a party which had its roots in Bengal.

Criss-crossing assembly segments on wheelchair, the TMC supremo alleged at Sonachura that huge amount of cash was being brought from all over the country and "distributed from hotels by the [BJP] ministers" to lure people cast their votes in favour of the saffron party nominee. Banerjee further alleged that cash was also being distributed from vehicles of the security forces to bribe voters and accused BJP of crossing all norms to come to power in the state.

Whether the weapon of Bengali subnationalism did neutralise the BJP's aggressive Hindutva campaign, during which chants of "Jai Shri Ram" were heard more as a battle cry than a religious pitch at election rallies, only time will tell. However, the saffron party's combative Hindutva posturing was countered by soft-Hindutva by Banerjee, often accused by the BJP of minority appeasement. She began reminding people attending her rallies of her being a Brahmin, and reciting 'Chandi Path', an ode to Goddess Durga, alongside verses of Quran. 

Identity was centre-stage in her campaign. From visiting 12 temples to reciting Sanskrit slokas to asserting her Brahmin identity, Banerjee has pulled all the stops to reach out to the electorate, especially to the majority community, as the party was apprehensive of a Hindu consolidation in favour of the BJP.

However, unsure whether her soft Hindutva will cut ice with hardline Hindu voters, Banerjee, at a rally in Hooghly district, appealed to Muslims not to allow their votes to get divided, drawing flak from the Election Commission, which was also upset with her remarks that central forces on election duty were "helping the BJP under instructions from Home Minister Amit Shah". The EC stopped Banerjee from campaigning for 24 hours for her "highly insinuating and provocative remarks laden with serious potential of the breakdown of law and order" and one that had "communal overtones". The often rambunctious Bengal leader staged a sit-in following the order.

If Muslim consolidation was crucial for Mamata Banerjee if she wanted to register a victory in the state, it was Scheduled Castes for the BJP. The SC communities make up close to 30 per cent of the state's population. Among the SC communities, the most significant would be the Matuas. If they are ever to cripple the TMC in South Bengal, and have a chance of winning the state, Matua votes are crucial for the BJP. The community has significant presence in districts like Nadia and North 24 Parganas, and can turn the election in over 30 assembly seats—from places like Bongaon, Bagda, Ashok Nagar, Bhatpara, Gaighata, Kalyani, Haringhata, Ranaghat and Krishnagunj. Originally, the Matuas stood strongly with the Left parties, but defected in favour of the TMC after the latter appeased them with land rights and official recognition. Currently, the BJP—with promises of full citizenship in the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA)—have bitten into a large chunk of the votebank.  

Bhaipo (nephew) and tolabaji (extortion) became catchwords in the BJP's campaign lexicon to attack Mamata Banerjee, whose nephew and Diamond Harbour MP Abhishek the BJP accused of running syndicates which took bribes "even for issuing death certificates". Banerjee shot back with vengeance. Calling Home Minister Amit Shah a "demon", the chief minister took a swipe at Modi over his beard, saying, "Industrial growth has stopped and only Modi's beard is growing". "Sometimes he calls himself Swami Vivekananda and sometimes renames stadiums after his own name. Something is wrong with his brain. It seems a screw is loose," said told a rally.

As violent clashes continued to rattle the state with alarming frequency widening political and societal chasm, came the fourth phase of polling on April 10 when five people were killed at Sitalkuchi in Cooch Behar district, including four in firing by CISF personnel in "self defence" after they allegedly came under attack by a mob. Banerjee claimed the four belonging to the minority community were TMC supporters who were killed in a "genocide" while standing in queue to vote.

Several BJP leaders including its state chief Dilip Ghosh made controversial remarks, inviting notices from the election watchdog. "Where did so many naughty boys come from? There can be more Sitalkuchi-like incidents if naughty boys like the ones who received bullets try to take law into their hands," Ghosh had said after the incident. The EC, while issuing a notice to Ghosh, said his remarks were "provocative", could incite "emotions" and "lead to a breakdown of law and order thereby adversely affecting the election process".