The election campaigns in Bihar has seen some dramatic build-up of tempo in the last one month. What was believed to be a low-key affair marred by coronavirus and migration has taken an energetic turn with nuanced political messaging. This tweak signals changes in the polity of the state, unlike in the previous elections. THE WEEK looks at five key elements of the Bihar 2020 elections.
Missing pictures
The key element so far appears to be the waning of socialist leaders from the political scene. As the anti-incumbency sentiment is running high against Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, the BJP is relying on its prime bet PM Narendra Modi. Modi's billboards across the state and the advertisements rolled out through the newspapers do not feature Nitish Kumar's pictures. This is being done to shield the saffron party from any negative sentiment against the incumbent CM who has ruled the state for 15 years. With the NDA making the campaign about 'development versus jungle raj', comparing the 15 years of Nitish Kumar with 15 years of Lalu Prasad Yadav, RJD's chief ministerial candidate Tejashwi Yadav too is employing cautious messaging. Missing are the pictures of Lalu Prasad Yadav from most of the advertisements featuring Tejashwi Yadav.
These are also the first elections being held in the state in the absence of Lalu Prasad Yadav, Sharad Yadav and Ram Vilas Paswan. Nitish is the only socialist politician in the arena.
Target Nitish
Interestingly, Tejashwi has made Nitish Kumar the main target of his attacks, while avoiding overt insinuations against Modi and the BJP. This is also a break from his father's style who has been very critical of Modi in the past. This apparently has been done with an aim to focus energies on vulnerable target (Nitish Kumar) and not Modi, who is considered a popular personality. The main attack on Nitish had come from Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) chief Chirag Paswan, who singled out the Bihar CM after breaking ranks with the ruling NDA. Chirag has been professing loyalty to Modi and the BJP, and is hopeful that, after the November 10 results, he will play the role of a kingmaker. Nitish Kumar may also be feeling the absence of poll strategist Prashant Kishore who devised his campaign last time. Kishore had resigned from the party, and is not seen in the elections even though he promised to float a youth platform.
Jobs vs bijli-paani-sadak
Unlike in the past elections, where caste and religion have been the issues, these elections witnessed the promise of 10 lakh jobs by Tejashwi setting the narrative. While CM Nitish Kumar went into denial, questioning the feasibility of the proposal, the BJP was quick to react by offering 19 lakh job opportunities. Nitish is still sticking to his promise of bijli-paani-sadak to woo his loyal votebank, mostly in rural Bihar.
Interestingly, even the BJP's campaign is centred around reminding the voters of jungle raj, rather than relying on its core Hindutva messaging, which did not pay the party dividends in 2015; it could manage only 53 seats—a drop off from 91 seats in 2010, but with a higher voteshare of 24 per cent.
Dominant Player
Bihar is different from other Hindi heartland states in the manner that coalition politics has been part of the state polity. But this election is witnessing the emergence of BJP and RJD as dominant players. The apparent dimunition of Nitish Kumar, despite the massive development work he has done in past 15 years, is helping new leaders emerge on the scene. Nitish is relying on his core votebank of extremely back castes, non-Yadav OBCs, and even women voters, who he think will give him fourth term.
While the BJP has promised it will support Nitish Kumar as CM, the saffron party desires to have its own CM in the state.
Coronavirus conundrum
Bihar went into polls with fears of coronavirus infection rising. But the numbers of positive cases given out by the state authorities are surprisingly low as compared to the number of tests being done. Wearing masks and maintaining social distancing appears an alien concept in the state as there is no enforcement. The number of senior BJP leaders who have tested positive, and since returned to campaign is higher than any other party. The social distancing norms are only followed during Prime Minister Modi's rallies, and in his visits to the state.
