On Thursday, Union minister Ram Vilas Paswan, one of the most prominent dalit leaders of the country, and the founder of the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), passed away at the age of 74. He had recently undergone a heart operation and his condition had deteriorated since. Paswan was a skilful grassroots politician who enjoyed good equations with leaders across the spectrum, and his dedicated following in his home state of Bihar—with an enviable grassroots support base among the dalit community—ensured that every national party courted him in his over five decades of career.
So, what does his passing mean for the politics in Bihar ahead of the assembly polls? This is a time of personal tragedy for his 37-year-old son Chirag Paswan; at the same time, there is no denying that this is also a politically inopportune time for his party. Chirag, who is now heading the party his father founded in 2000, is no longer in the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in Bihar, and is openly taking on Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's JD(U) as well as the opposition alliance in the assembly polls. He will miss out on his father's experience of deftly navigating several such crises in the past. On the flip side, Paswan's death may also spark an upsurge of support for his scion among his party's supporters and sympathisers. "Papa, you are no more in this world but I know you are with me wherever you are. Miss you papa," Chirag Paswan tweeted.
Chirag has made his intentions crystal clear. He is no longer content playing the second fiddle in the state. He has openly stated his loyalty to the BJP; Under PM Narendra Modi's auspices, the LJP had won all six six seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, while it had won just 2 seats in 243 in the 2015 assembly polls. Chirag's plan will be to cut into the JD(U) votes in the 143 seats that his party is contesting and emerge a kingmaker in case the NDA falls short of majority. He has already claimed that there is a wave against Chief Minister Nitish Kumar that could result in a loss for the ruling alliance in the polls. He also urged the voters not to vote JD(U), stating that an alliance of his party and the BJP will come to power in the state after the assembly polls. Will those lofty dreams come to fruition in the absence of the consummate campaigner, crowd-puller and expert political operative that is his father? Chirag himself is relatively inexperienced, a two-time MP, a young politician and a former Bollywood actor, who will have to maneuver the urban-rural divide in his votebase.
Amid Chirag's hostility, the JD(U) has numerous causes for concern. As multiple media reports stated quoting sources, the party was concerned with the ally BJP's lack of forcefulness in condemning Chirag and fear that the latter could be a proxy in the Centre's hands to weaken the JD(U) in the state. While top BJP leaders had reaffirmed their full support to CM Nitish Kumar no matter which party scored the highest number of seats, they had remained cryptic on Chirag, saying that the LJP remained a national NDA constituent. In addition, the LJP has fielded 4 senior BJP turncoat candidates against the JD(U), and wins for them could indirectly strengthen the saffron party and weaken CM Nitish Kumar's hands simultaneously.
The JD(U) had hit back at Chirag in biting statements, calling him a "political dynast under the shadow of his father", saying that "he has no standing of his own" or "no understanding of the issues that matter on the ground".
Now, post Ram Vilas Paswan's passing, the Nitish Kumar-led party will have to tone down his attacks on the young leader at the risk of coming across as insensitive and opportunistic.
The LJP had yesterday released a September 24 letter from Chirag to J.P. Nadda, which accused Nitish Kumar of insulting his father for a Rajya Sabha, and claimed that the JD(U) president had expressed his ignorance of Ram Vilas Paswan's founder ill-health at a time when even Prime Minister Narendra Modi frequently called him to enquire about his health.
