Will the ban on Ganesh Chathurthi processions widen the rift in AIADMK- BJP alliance?

What will its effects be on the Palaniswami-OPS power struggle in the ruling party?

EPS claims victory in Cauvery dispute, releases water from Mettur dam [File] Chief Minister Edappadi K. Palaniswami | PTI

Post a high-profile meeting of the Tamil Nadu government on Monday, the ruling AIADMK announced it will stand firm on its decision to not allow Ganesh Chathurthi processions during the pandemic. Chief Minister Edappadi K. Palaniswami remained steadfast, fearing it might light the spark for communal violence in the state. Sources in the chief minister’s camp office confirmed to THE WEEK that Palaniswami conveyed his firm decision to a team of Sangh Parivar representatives who met him. He has informed them that the ban on Ganesh Chathurthi processions on August 22, across Tamil Nadu, cannot be lifted.

A team of RSS representatives, including BJP state President L. Murugan, Hindu Munnani state president K. Subramaniam and two others, called on the chief minister at his camp office, requesting him to reconsider his decision to ban the processions. The team asked the chief minister to reconsider and withdraw the order banning the processions. They assured him that all physical distancing norms will be followed and there will not be any violations of COVID-19 rules. But, Palaniswami, sources confirm, stood firm on his decision. 

On August 14, the state government had issued a ban on installation of Ganesh idols. It also said that the immersion of idols in ponds, lakes and ocean will not be allowed in view of the COVID-19 pandemic. But, Hindu Munnani, one of the frontline outfits of the Sangh Parivar, declared that it would defy the ban and celebrate the festival. Its state president Subramaniam said that the outfit will install 1.5 lakh idols across the state. However, the state government began controlling it with an iron fist. The RSS outfits, however, approached the Madurai Bench of Madras High Court, seeking to lift the ban and allow the procession with social distancing norms. Former AIADMK MP Sasikala Pushpa, who recently joined the BJP, tweeted that the party will take permission from the court to go ahead with the celebrations.

Murugan and others called on Palaniswami on Monday to apprise him of the situation and persuade him to lift the ban. But, the chief minister stood firm on his decision. The BJP and the other outfits argued that if liquor shops in Chennai can be opened from August 18, religious celebrations can be allowed. But Palaniswami stood firm because the state government strongly feels that the procession could lead to communal tensions in parts of the state. Sources say that the government’s decision could leave the ruling AIADMK’s alliance partner BJP seething in anger and widen the rift in the AIADMK-BJP alliance. Earlier, BJP’s Murugan had said that “only the political party shown by the BJP will win the 2021 elections”. 

While the CM's action of taking on the BJP could help the AIADMK politically and position the chief minister as a leader, he might not get help from his own party colleagues.

Amid power struggle with O. Panneerselvam over chief ministerial candidacy in the upcoming polls, Palaniswami wants to establish himself as a leader opposite DMK’s M.K. Stalin. The BJP too is aware that there is a possible coup d’état looming in the AIADMK, and that the rift could widen close to the elections. The BJP has already eaten into the vote bank of the AIADMK. Sources say Palaniswami wants to alienate the BJP in the state, but enjoy the support of the rulers in Delhi to continue his government without any hiccups till the 2021 elections.

“If you believe that the fight on August 15 in the AIADMK was to determine or decide who the chief minister candidate is, then you are completely misled. The fight is on taking over the reins of the party. Palaniswami knows for sure that the AIAMDK will lose this election. But, his only aim is to establish himself as a leader opposite DMK’s M.K. Stalin and become the face of the AIADMK like MGR and Jayalalithaa. But, his only possible threat is Panneerselvam, who still enjoys support from the bosses in Delhi,” says a former Rajya Sabha MP from the AIADMK. Though not a strong relationship like in 2017, OPS still continues to enjoy good rapport with the rulers in Delhi, says the MP.

Beginning with his strongly worded statement saying action will be taken on miscreants who threw a saffron shawl on an MGR statue in Puducherry, Palaniswami has been carefully working towards shedding the image of a BJP-friendly chief ninister. After the MGR statue statement came action against a 21-year-old, who was arrested under National Security Act (NSA) for throwing saffron paint on a Periyar statue in Tamil Nadu; now comes the ban on Ganesh Chathurthi processions. Though this was for pure law and order reasons, Palaniswami is very much aware that OPS will give a tough fight and will continue to put on a brave face. But, in the long run, political circles in the state say that Sangh outfits might ensure that both Palaniswami and OPS turn unpopular in the state. 

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