The BJP has once again formed the government in Karnataka, its gateway to southern India. At the moment, the political situation owing to BJP's precarious number in the House seems volatile. But the saffron party seems confident of crossing the first hurdle—the floor test on Monday.
On Friday, Bookanakere Siddalingappa Yediyurappa was sworn in as the chief minister of the state, almost three days after the Congress-JD(S) coalition government collapsed.
While the BJP's strength in the Assembly remains 105, the overall strength of the House has been reduced to 221 after Speaker Ramesh Kumar disqualified three members under the anti-defection law on Thursday.
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The speaker disqualified two Congress rebel MLAs—Ramesh Jarkiholi (Gokak) and Mahesh Kumatalli (Athani)—and Independent MLA R. Shankar (Ranebennur) based on two separate petitions made by the Congress party. However, he is yet to give a ruling in the case of remaining 12 resignations.
The BJP leadership has been keeping a close watch on the developments in the state. A delegation of the state BJP leaders, including Arvind Limbavali, J.C. Madhuswamy, Jagadish Shettar, Basavaraj Bommai and B.Y. Vijayendra, met party president Amit Shah and J. P. Nadda in Delhi on Thursday, to apprise them of the political developments and the possibility of forming the government.
After long deliberations with state leaders and legal experts, Amit Shah took the call to stake claim to form the government in Karnataka.
The road ahead for the saffron party and Yediyurappa is riddled with challenges. To begin with, he has to prove majority on the floor of the House.
Numbers game
The political situation in the state had become volatile after a spate of resignations by 16 Congress and JD(S) legislators. The speaker is yet to act on the resignations. But with the rebels choosing to keep away from the House till the resignations are accepted, the coalition government was reduced to minority. On July 12, when the Legislature session was convened, then chief minister H.D. Kumaraswamy moved a confidence motion. The Congress party issued a whip to its members, but the rebels approached the Supreme Court seeking protection from being compelled to vote in favour of the coalition. The motion was defeated on July 23, after 20 ruling coalition legislators including 15 rebels skipped the floor test. The coalition secured 99 votes against opposition BJP's 105. As the House strength during the floor test was 204, the coalition government collapsed as it could not get a clear majority of 103 votes.
Yediyurappa, who had quit as the chief minister in May 2018, within three days after taking the oath as he could not muster a majority, is taking no chances this time.
Once again, it will be a political numbers game that will determine if Yediyurappa can sail through the vote of confidence scheduled next week.
While the BJP camp has denied its role in toppling the coalition government and blamed the lack of coordination in the ruling combine for their collapse, the JD(S) and the Congress allege that the mass resignations is a political coup orchestrated by BJP's central leadership.
For now, the BJP is hoping to clear the floor test. Currently, the House strength is 221 and Yediyurappa will have to get 111 votes to secure a clear majority during the vote of confidence. However, if the 12 rebels (as three have already been disqualified) and Independent MLA Nagesh skip the proceedings once again, the House strength will reduce to 205, and the BJP can easily cross the magic number of 103. That will give the Yediyurappa government a breather for six months.
BJP wary of fresh polls?
The BJP's decision to form the government is also to do with the state facing many crises. A drought-hit Karnataka is also inching towards a constitutional crisis as the financial bill (appropriation bill) is pending approval of the government.
While the previous government had sought a vote on account only till July 31, the non-passage of the bill will bring the government to a standstill.
In the absence of a government, a state's finance bill can be passed in the Parliament (Article 246). But that would require the Assembly to be kept under suspension by the governor. Moreover, a prolonged political stalemate where no party stakes claim to form the government would compel the Centre to declare a state emergency or President's Rule, under Article 356, on the recommendation of the governor. Interestingly, the BJP which is confident of facing the fresh polls, especially after its enviable performance of 25 out of 28 seats in the Lok Sabha polls, seems to be shying away from early polls.
On Friday morning, Yediyurappa took to Twitter to make the big announcement. "As instructed by our National President Shri @AmitShah ji and working president of BJP Shri @JPNadda ji, I have met his Excellency Governor of Karnataka to stake claim to form government. I will take oath as CM of Karnataka today at 6 pm," he tweeted.
The Congress was quick to slam both Yediyurappa and Governor Vajubhai Vala, stating the BJP had no clear majority to form the government. "The House strength is 221 after three legislators were disqualified by the speaker. As there has been no ruling on the 12 resignations, the rebels continue to be members. Now, does the BJP with only 105 seats, have majority? BJP will need six more seats to reach the magic number. Governor's decision to invite the BJP to form the government is unconstitutional," said former Ballari MP From Congress V.S. Ugrappa.
CLP leader Siddaramaiah tweeted saying, "Yeddyurappa staking claim to form the government despite not having majority and the Governor giving his nod are both detrimental to parliamentary democracy. BJP has once again proved, they have no faith in the Constitution."
BJP leaders defended the party decision to form the government, saying the speaker had not acted on the resignations for a long time and it has become evident that the rebel MLAs would not reconsider their decision and withdraw their resignations.
A stable government is the need of the hour in the state that has seen 14 months of a shaky JD(S)-Congress coalition government. Will the BJP pull it off this time or go down like it did in its first stint, remains to be seen.
