The stability of the JD(S)-Congress coalition government in Karnataka hinges on the outcome of the Lok Sabha polls. But, the alliance will be put to test before May 23. The bypolls to two Assembly seats—Chincholi (SC reserved) and Kundgol, which will be held on May 19—has energised both the alliance partners and the BJP, as they might prove crucial in the numbers game.
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The bypolls to Chincholi was necessitated after sitting Congress MLA Umesh Jadhav quit the party to contest the Kalaburagi parliament seat on a BJP ticket, against Congress veteran Mallikarjun Kharge. The Kundgol seat fell vacant following the demise of sitting Congress MLA C.S. Shivalli, a fellow Kuruba and close aide of former chief minister Siddaramaiah.
The battle for Chincholi will be a fight between turncoats. BJP has fielded Jadhav's Avinash to take on Congress nominee Subash Rathod, who quit the BJP recently. Jadhav had previously won the seat with a margin of 19,212 votes, as opposed to his nearest contender Sunil Valyapure of the BJP. Valyapure was one of the ticket aspirants for the bypolls too.
On April 23, Kalaburagi witnessed Kharge being isolated as his old friends Baburao Chinchunsur, Malikayya Guttedar, A.B. Malaka Reddy and Jadhav crossed over to the BJP. The Chincholi bypoll promises yet another fiery battle between Congress and former Congress leaders. Incidentally, it is also the seat held by former chief minister and Lingayat leader late Veerendra Patil, whose downfall is believed to be a turning point for the Congress in the region. His unceremonious ousting as the chief minister alienated the politically dominant Lingayat community from the Congress, which shifted its loyalty to the BJP.
In Kundgol, the Congress has nominated Kusuma, the widow of deceased MLA Shivalli. Kusuma is pitched against BJP's S.I. Chikkanagoudar, who was defeated by a very thin margin of 634 votes in the May 2018 polls. It is a prestige battle between Siddaramaiah and Yeddyurappa.
Interestingly, the BJP's choice of candidates—Avinash Jadhav and Chikkanagoudar, a relative of Yeddyurappa—has triggered a debate over the BJP too practising dynastic politics. Some partymen are upset that the central leadership denied ticket to Tejaswini Ananth Kumar, wife of Bengaluru South MP and union minister late H.N. Ananth Kumar. The ticket was given to a political greenhorn Tejasvi Surya, the nephew of sitting MLA from Basavanagudi, Ravi Subrahmanya.
The bypoll will turn out to be a litmus test for the alliance, although JDS is only a marginal player in both the constituencies. While the Congress is defending both its seats, the BJP is keen to wrest them to increase its tally from the current 104 seats (in the 224-member Assembly. The saffron party, which emerged as the single largest party in the May 2018 Assembly polls, was pushed to the opposition benches after it fell short of nine seats for a clear majority.
At present, the Congress and the JDS together hold 116 seats, the BJP holds 104, and two independents make it a total of 222. The ongoing fued between the Jarkiholi brothers—Satish and Ramesh—that is threatening resignations from Ramesh, the Gokak MLA, and his aides gives the BJP new hope. Now, if the BJP can win both seats, the tally would go up to 106. Assuming the two independents would support the party, the coalition would collapse.
Moreover, there will be two more vacancies if sitting MLAs—Krishna Byregowda (Byatrayanapura) and KPCC working president Eshwar Khandre (Bhalki)—win the Bengaluru North and Bidar parliamentary constituencies respectively. That will put the coalition in a precarious position as it would be reduced to a minority government even if three of its MLAs quit the party or resign.
Both parties have realised the bypolls are very crucial for their own future in the state. Even if the danger of a BJP coup can be discounted, the Congress is eager to increase its own tally to safeguard its position as the dominant ally in the coalition and to secure its bargaining power.
BJP state president B.S. Yeddyurappa called on his party leaders and cadres to put their holiday plans on hold till May 19. “Your vacation or honeymoon can wait. I want anyone and everyone who feels they can benefit the party in the bypolls to stay put in the two constituencies,” said Yeddyurappa.
