Will former chief minister Digvijaya Singh win the Bhopal seat in the upcoming Lok Sabha polls? This is one of the most asked questions in the political circles of Madhya Pradesh.
The decision of the Congress to contest the Rajya Sabha MP from the Bhopal parliamentary seat—whether it is part of an election strategy or a fallout of internal politics—has made it one of the most keenly watched constituencies in the country. Bhopal is a seat that the Congress has never won since 1984. A day before the candidature was announced, Chief Minister Kamal Nath publicly announced the intention of the party to field Singh from Bhopal, "so that the tough seat could be wrested by a heavyweight leader".
However, the move was considered as Nath’s ploy to corner Singh, who was widely perceived to be running a shadow government after the Congress came to power in 2018. Digvijaya took up the ‘challenge’ with gusto, launching an intensive campaign to win over an electorate that has staunchly supported the saffron party for the past three decades.
The fact that the BJP has not been able to declare a candidate for the seat, even ten days after Singh’s candidature was announced, is now viewed upon as a sign of discomfort and unease.
BJP’s likely choice
If the grapevine is to be believed, the BJP might shift either Union Minister Narendra Singh Tomar, now a candidate from Morena constituency, to Bhopal, or go in for a fresh face like Vishnu Dutt Sharma, party general secretary and RSS confidante. Tomar had opted out of the Gwalior seat to go to Morena; his further shift to Bhopal might be an interesting move.
Sharma himself told THE WEEK that he was poised to contest either from Bhopal or Morena (in case Narendra Tomar is shifted). Earlier, there were conjectures about former chief ministers Uma Bharti or Shivraj Singh Chouhan being fielded, but Bharti has stuck to her stand of not contesting the polls and Chouhan is also said to have expressed unwillingness. Chouhan was sidelined by the BJP after the November 2018 defeat.
Not a cakewalk
Although Digvijaya is undoubtedly a heavyweight leader, his win from Bhopal constituency, which has an electorate of over 19.5 lakh, will not be an easy task. But, the 'Raja of Raghogarh', who ruled the state for ten years from 1993 to 2003 as chief minister, might yet be the best bet for Congress to wrest back the Bhopal seat.
“It all depends on how the BJP takes on the fight. If they field an insignificant candidate, Digvijaya might actually find the going tough, as he would have nothing to fight against. The electorate will feel the ex-CM was not considered a worthy rival. But, if a heavyweight leader is fielded by the BJP, Singh might find it easier,” Girija Shankar, a veteran political watcher, says.
Manish Dixit, a senior political journalist, however, points out certain factors to underline how Singh actually might win. “His Bhopal team, dormant for the past 15 years, has become visibly active in the past ten days. Also, four ministers—P.C. Sharma, Arif Aqueel of Bhopal, son Jaivardhan Singh and close confidante Govind Singh—will work twice as hard to ensure the best chance for Singh. Being a heavyweight is a help in itself, and BJP’s indecision on candidature has given Singh a much-needed headstart. Also, there is a big chunk of the Muslim vote in Bhopal [around 5 lakh out of 19.5 lakh] that has to be considered,” Dixit says.
He also points out that while current MP Alok Sanjar won by a margin of 3.7 lakh votes in 2014, the total votes polled by the BJP in the eight assembly constituencies, comprising the parliamentary seat, in the 2018 polls, was just 63,000 more than the Congress.
Senior journalist Shams Ur Rehman Alavi has a different take. He says that Muslims do not vote en masse for the Congress; the non-Muslim votes are consolidated because of that wrong perception. “This is perhaps one of the reasons the saffron party has been winning the Bhopal seat comfortably,” he says.
