As India focuses on Prime Minister Narendra Modi's comeback mission in the Lok Sabha polls, Tamil Nadu is keeping its eyes trained on the byelections to the 18 assembly constituencies which will decide the fate of the two Dravidian majors. Thirty eight days from now, as the state votes to elect their MPs from 39 Lok Sabha constituencies, the bypolls to the 18 assembly constituencies are considered more crucial.
Sitting on a thin majority, Edapadi K. Palanisamy led AIADMK government has been strategising on how to run the show till 2021. The AIADMK, in fact, when it signed agreements with the political parties to contest the Lok Sabha polls, took the unconditional support of the BJP, PMK and the last comer DMDK to contest the vacant 21 assembly constituencies.
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The AIADMK, which won 134 constituencies in the 2016 polls, now has just 113 MLAs—5 less than the magical number to prove the majority. With Jayalalithaa dead and losing the seat to TTV Dhinakaran, 18 MLAs supporting the Dhinakaran faction, the demise of Thiruparankunram MLA A.K. Bose and Minister Balakrishna Reddy losing his MLA seat because of a court verdict, the AIADMK’s tally now stands at 113. After several writ petitions in the Madras High Court and a legal fight in the Supreme Court EPS managed to pull the show.
While byelections to 21 constituencies were expected—as all the 21 constituencies do not have MLAs—the Election Commission of India announced bypolls to only 18 constituencies. On April 18, bypolls will be held simultaneously with the Lok Sabha polls in Tamil Nadu. On Sunday, Tamil Nadu’s Chief Electoral Officer Satyabrata Sahoo clarified that three constituencies—Aravakurichi, Thiruparamkunram and Ottapidaram cannot go for bypolls as election petitions are pending at the court.
“We have to win at least 10 MLAs in the bypolls so that we retain our government,” said a senior AIADMK minister. Meanwhile, the DMK camp seems to be much upset as even if it wins all the 18 constituencies, it will not be able to form a government. The DMK-Congress combination now has 98 MLAs and it would need 20 more to prove the majority in the house. “It has been done deliberately to ensure that we do not form the government. The BJP government in the centre and the Election Commission have come together to save the AIADMK government,” tells DMK spokesperson Saravanan Annadurai.
Meanwhile, DMK’s Dr Saravanan, who lost to AIADMK’s late A.K. Bose from the Thiruparankunram constituency on Monday approached the Madras High Court, seeking it to deliver the verdict on his election petition at the earliest. He has informed the Madras High Court that the Election Commission of India has unnecessarily postponed the bypoll citing his petition. Saravanan had challenged the election commission against the victory of A.K. Bose. This is still waiting for the final verdict, a year after the demise of Bose.
While DMK leader M.K. Stalin is confident of a good show with all the anti-BJP and anti-AIADMK factors coming together, the DMK is in a position to fight hard in a state where cash for votes is normal. The DMK’s Grama Sabha meetings seem to have paid well for the party. The DMK is pinning its hopes on the ride on a well prepared manifesto based on the local administration issues its leaders heard from the people.
On the other hand, Tamil Nadu’s dark horse TTV Dhinakaran who has toured the state, seems have the knack to lure voters with his speech and charisma. Dhinakaran who won as an MLA from RK Nagar has put up a stiff fight against the AIADMK. Dhinakaran after his 40 public rallies called as the ‘Revolution Rally’ is all set out for a fiery election campaign eyeing votes earlier meant for Jayalalithaa. Dhinakaran has two targets—win at least 10 per cent vote share and ouster the AIADMK government.
Apart from the AIADMK, DMK and Dhinakaran, Kamal Hassan, the new star face, and his Makkal Neddhi Maiam, have decided to go at it alone in the state to contest all the 40 parliamentary and 18 assembly constituencies. Kamal Hassan with his star value is expected to play a spoilsport this elections.
