Karnataka: Rebels keep coalition on tenterhooks; BJP on 'wait and watch' mode

Karnataka's political crisis might not rattle the JD(S)-Congress coalition, but it would sure sully the government's image and take the steam out of the Congress party ahead of the crucial Lok Sabha polls. The rebellion within the Congress is threatening to trigger a spate of resignations by its disgruntled legislators. The constant turmoil in the ruling coalition has time and again rekindled the BJP's hope of forming government in the state. 

This time again, the joint session of Karnataka legislature began with the BJP members storming the well of the house, disrupting the governor's address on Wednesday. The saffron party alleges that the H.D. Kumaraswamy government no longer enjoys majority support. 

The rebel Congress MLAs remained absent from the house for the second day, despite the party issuing a whip. At least eight Congress legislators, including Ramesh Jarkiholi (Gokak), B. Nagendra (Ballari rural), Mahesh Kumatalli (Athani), and Dr Umesh Jadhav (Chincholi), were absent for the session. J.N. Ganesh, who is absconding after allegedly assaulting party colleague MLA Anand Singh, during a drunken brawl last month, did not turn up fearing his arrest. He has been booked under a case of attempt to murder by Singh's family. 

Two independents, Ranennur MLA R. Shankar and Mulbagilu MLA H. Mahesh, who have withdrawn their support to the coalition, skipping the session along with Congress MLAs B.C. Patil (Hirekerur) and Dr Sudhakar (Chikkaballapur), and JD(S) legislator Narayana Gowda (KR Pet) has created a flutter in the political circles.

The coalition partners allege that the BJP is attempting another "Operation Lotus" (poaching of rebel MLAs) to destabilise the government. But it is now obvious that the current crisis is a telling tale of the revolt within the grand old party, where the senior leaders, too, seem to have lost control over their legislators. The Congress MLAs have already conveyed to the party leadership their resentment against the chief minister, with many criticising the coalition in public.  

The rebels are said to be in a huddle at a Mumbai hotel. Even as the Congress leaders and Chief Minister Kumaraswamy are trying to reach out to them, the rebels are contemplating whether to tender their resignation to the speaker before the party can seek their disqualification under the anti-defection law, which will bar them from contesting elections for the next six years. 

Former chief minister and Congress Legislature Party leader Siddaramaiah issued a second whip on Thursday asking all his party legislators to be present during the CLP meeting on Friday,  prior to the tabling of the second budget by the coalition government. In fact, the whip warns of invoking the anti-defection law.  The move has forced the rebels to end the suspense over their affiliation or inclination to jump ship.

While the resignation of four legislators will not reduce the coalition to a minority government  or benefit the BJP (with 104 seats) to stake claim to form the government, it would definitely embarrass the ruling dispensation. 

The BJP alleges that the Kumaraswamy government no longer enjoys majority support | Bhanu Prakash Chandra

In the event of the BJP moving a no-confidence motion against the Kumaraswamy government or seeking division of votes on the finance bill claiming that the government has lost the support of several Congress legislators, the fear of cross-voting by rebels is giving the Congress party jitters. The JD(S), too, has issued whip to its members to attend the session without fail.  

An impending face-off between the Congress rebels and party leaders on Friday will most likely put Speaker Ramesh Kumar to the test as the party might petition him seeking the disqualification of its rebels. On the other hand, the rebels are likely to tender their resignation to escape disqualification. The speaker has made it clear that he would go by the rule book and accept the resignations if any legislators approaches him.

It may be recalled that during the Siddaramaiah government, the JD(S) had petitioned then Speaker K.B. Koliwad seeking disqualification of seven of its rebel MLAs for crossvoting in the Rajya Sabha elections.  However, Koliwad kept it in abeyance for almost two years. The seven rebels—Zameer Ahmed Khan (Chamrajpet), Akhanda Srinivasamurthy (Pulakeshinagar), Bheema Naik (Hagaribommanahalli), H.C. Balakrishna (Magadi), Iqbal Ansari (Gangavathi), Ramesh Bandisiddegowda (Srirangapatna) and N. Cheluvarayaswamy (Nagamangala) completed their term and joined the Congress just before the assembly polls. 

This time, the rebels are confident that the party cannot invoke the anti-defection law.  Unless the rebels crossvote or abstain from voting in violation of the whip, the anti-defection law does not apply to them, argue BJP leaders. But the Congress leaders are divided over the issue. Some confide that the rebels will be taught a lesson for their "anti-party" behaviour, while some others rule out disqualification. 

Budget dilemma

According to sources, the BJP was hoping to defeat the finance bill by seeking division of votes.  However, they now find themselves cornered as Kumaraswamy has announced that he would allocate Rs 46,000 crore for the farm loan waiver in the upcoming budget. Defeating the finance bill would backfire on the BJP as the coalition will not lose the chance to label the saffron party as "anti-farmer" in an election year. 

Even as the coalition partners are daring the BJP to move the no-confidence motion, Yeddyurappa has ruled out its possibility. At the moment, the BJP seems to be trying to rattle the coalition to explore the possibility of keeping the state in suspended animation, as a neutral administrative machinery would ensure a level playing field for all the three plates in the crucial Lok Sabha polls.  

The coalition government will remain stable as long as the number of JD(S) and Congress rebels willing to quit does not touch 13.