In October, Rajasthan Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje made a statement. Women will play a decisive role in the assembly elections, she said, claiming that they will help the BJP ride to power. Will they overwhelmingly vote for the BJP? Numbers do not back up the hypothesis. But, it is a fact that women are increasingly participating, both as electors and as successful poll candidates, in a socially conservative state like Rajasthan.
For the first time, in 2013, the voting percentage of female electors outstripped that of their male counterparts. Also, on average, from 1998-2013, women participation as candidates in the elections have gone up 32.33 per cent annually―12 per cent increase in 2008-2013; 36 per cent (2003-2008); 49 per cent (1998-2003). Since 1972, Rajasthan women voters per thousand men voters have increased: 723 (1972), 763 (1977), 744 (1980), 728 (1985), 736 (1990), 755 (1993), 786 (1998), 841 (2003), 874 (2008), 899 (2013). The trend is electorally significant on several counts. For the first time when women electors outvoted men in Bihar (2015), Nitish Kumar rode the wave on the back of his policies like prohibition, according to the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) report. This overwhelming support among women also helped AIADMK beat anti-incumbency in the 2016 Tamil Nadu assembly elections, according to the same report.
More interestingly a trend emerges. It became clear that the constituencies where women have outvoted men (in absolute numbers), have always, and consistently, displayed bellwether trends.
In Sagwara, Kherwara, Ladnun and Deedwana, the only states where women have consistently outvoted men in 2003, 2008 and 2013, the trends have always favoured the winning party. In Churu, Fatehpur and Garhi, where women outvoted men in 2008 and 2013, the trends have always favoured the winning party. Bhim and Dungarpur (women outvoted men in 2003, 2008 and 2013), where BJP won in 2008 and Congress won in 2003 respectively, are exceptions to the cause. Even then, by all metrics, it is a very reliable trend.
The increasing electoral participation does not, by any means, negate the fact that the state ranks lowest in several socio-cultural indices. As per the 2011 census, Rajasthan had bridged its male-female gap in literacy to 27.8 per cent from 31.8 per cent in 2001; however, it is still the highest in the country.
When it comes to percentage of households with toilet facilities, Rajasthan ranks much below the national average of 61.1 per cent, with a score of 54 per cent (NFHS-4). For women, in the median number of years of schooling completed, Rajasthan ranks at the very bottom, with a score of 1.7, as opposed to a national average of 4.4. In the percentage distribution of women aged 15-49, who have completed no schooling whatsoever, Rajasthan ranks at the bottom, just above Bihar, with 40.6 per cent. In terms of literacy, 56.5 per cent females are literate as compared to the national average of 56.5 per cent, and 19.7 per cent women are currently employed, compared to a national average of 24.0 per cent.
(Graphics credits: Syam Krishnan)
