As Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led NDA government completes four years in office, a fresh survey predicts that the BJP will retain power in the 2019 parliamentary elections.
Though it will not be a smooth ride for the NDA in the next elections, the ruling alliance is likely to emerge victorious in 274 of the 543 seats, says the Mood of The Nation Survey conducted by ABP News-CSDS. In 2014 elections, NDA had won 336 seats.
The survey says Congress-led UPA may win 164 seats while other parties are likely to bag 105 seats, if elections are called today. It says 60 per cent of people have supported NDA, while 34 per cent backed UPA. However, the survey also claims 47 per cent people feel the Narendra Modi government does not deserve another chance in 2019
The survey results came a day before Narendra Modi is flying to Cuttack in Odisha on Saturday to address a public function to mark four years of his government.
Other major findings of the survey
- NDA is likely get 37 per cent vote-share, UPA 31 per cent and others 32 per cent if elections are held today.
- The survey cites unemployment, GST, low income level, rising atrocities against the dalits and minorities as some of the factors that pulled down NDA's popularity. “About three-fourths of Muslims, three-fifths of Christians and well over half the Sikhs indicated that they do not wish to see the Modi government coming back to power next year,” it said.
- Out of 151 seats in North India, NDA is likely to win 90 seats, UPA 25 and others 36. Out of 132 seats in South India, NDA may win 18-22 seats, UPA 67-75 seats and others 38-44 seats.
- Narendra Modi’s popularity dropped to 34 per cent, while Rahul Gandhi’s popularity increased from 16 per cent in 2014 to 24 per cent in 2018.
- If BSP and SP join hands in Uttar Pradesh, the BJP will have to face a major setback. The survey says that the SP-BSP combine will get 42 per cent vote share in the state.
- However, in Gujarat, Narendra Modi's home state, NDA will have a clear lead with the saffron party likely to get 54 per cent votes.
- The survey predicts a spectacular performance of Congress party in Madhya Pradesh. Congress is likely to get 49 per cent votes in the state while BJP's vote share will reduce to 34 per cent.
- In Maharashtra, the survey predicts 48 per cent votes for NDA, 40 per cent for UPA and 21 per cent for others. NDA's vote share will further drop if Sena decides to contest alone.
- Congress will make big gains in Rajasthan as the party is expected to get 44 per cent vote share, according to the survey. BJP may get 39 per cent votes in the state.