If 2017 was the summer of discontent in Indo-China relations, 2018 seems to be the year of creating a friendly neighbourhood.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi's upcoming visit to Wuhan (April 27 - 28) is expected to set right the path on which the two nations would agree to walk in the post Doklam era. The meeting is being regarded by observers with the same importance given to the tour that Rajiv Gandhi made to Beijing tour 30 years ago, meant to break the ice that had set into the ties post 1962 war.
That may be the similarity, but there are enough differences between the two tours. Gandhi was resetting an equation that had gone awry a quarter of a century ago, while Modi and his counterpart Xi Jinping are attempting give an honest try to reset ties that suffered a setback a year ago.
This last one year has been a learning experience for both the countries. While the two countries were successful in diplomatically defusing a stand-off in the high mountains without firing a single bullet, the post Doklam months have set both the nations rethinking. And the rapidity with which global changes are occurring have made both realise the importance of having a peaceful, shared border.
It must have been a moment of clairvoyance, or perhaps simple diplomatic foresight, which made the two commit to the Astana Consensus just days before Doklam. The consensus, agreed upon on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) said the two would not allow their differences to become disputes. The agreement recognised that the two countries, aspiring to be influential economies, and sharing several thousand kilometres of border—most of which is disputed— would have differences.
More than mutual differences, though,there's been realisation on both sides that there are other problems besides each other. The two sides have also realised that it is better to bury the hatchet and send each other bouquets for the present. China's trade war with the US has come at a rather inopportune time for the country. Xi Jinping has just embarked on what could be a reign of greatness for China, having changed rules that allowed only fixed terms for premier. The instability on the Korean Peninsula is another headache it could do without, for the present. (The tensions might be defused with the two Koreas likely to meet later this week, and with North Korea announcing that it did not need to test capability of its missile systems any further.)
Again, India's absence from China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) does put a spanner in the wheels for China. The China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is what India protests against, given it passes through Pakistan occupied Kashmir. Having its closest and biggest neighbour not take part in this ambitious initiative isn't a good starting point, China has realised with introspection. There is now talk that China might use an alternative route for CPEC, keeping in mind India's sensitivities.
Modi and Jinping have met several times since Modi became prime minister. Although Jinping first came to India, and was hosted in Gujarat, Modi has visited China more often. This would be his third visit, and will be followed up with yet another visit in June to Qingdao for the SCO meet.
India, too, felt that it is prudent not to needle China too much, after the Dalai Lama's jaunts in Arunachal Pradesh (which China considers its territory) raised Chinese hackles. The new foreign secretary, Vijay Gokhale, who was India's ambassador in Beijng just before this post, issued instructions to government officials not to overtly participate in the Dalai Lama's 'thank India event' in Delhi. While that letter, which got leaked to the press, made public what was expected to be a subtle keeping away, the Tibetans thought it better to host the event in Dharamshala finally, and it saw the presence of Indian ministers.
The importance of China for India's foreign policy can be seen with the number of high-level visits to China in recent days. First, Gokhale went to Beijing; now External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj is there, having just met her counterpart Wang Yi. Defence Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is heading for China, too.
China's closeness with Russia has troubled India is recent times, but India's overt friendliness with the US has also caused concern in Beijing. The elephant and dragon are making an attempt to dance together. Will they manage it with grace, or will they keep stepping on each other's toes?