As predicted, the verdict of the Meghalaya election is a fractured one. While the Congress and the National People’s Party (NPP) are on equal footing with the contest being a very close one, the BJP has not been able to win many seats.
Conrad Sangma, who headed the election campaign for the NPP, was not a very happy man on Saturday as he had expected a better performance, given the incumbency of the Congress party, which has ruled the state for 10 long years.
With development being the plank of the NPP, the party leaders feel that they could have done better. However, Conrad's sister, Agatha, is all smiles today as the 37-year-old daughter of late P.A. Sangma, who had formed the party after breaking away from the Congress first and then the NCP, could create history in the state.
Agatha, a union minister during the UPA rule, could become the first woman chief minister of Meghalaya.
The Congress which has 22 seats in its kitty, according to trends and leads at 4.30pm, has emerged as the largest party, but has not crossed the magic figure of 30 required to form the government. But this time, the Congress has been very quick with its strategy. Senior Congress leaders, including Kamal Nath, Ahmed Patel and C.P. Joshi, have reached Shillong.
It is likely that the party will meet the governor this evening to stake claim to form the government. With no party crossing the half-way mark of 30 required to form the next government, horse-trading will be the next thing.
Things could get murkier as the BJP's election strategist, Himanta Biswa Sharma, is rushing to Shillong from Tripura to help the NPP, which is part of the North-East Democratic Alliance (NEDA), a BJP formation. The saffron party has secured only 2 seats, despite having put up candidates in 47 constituencies.
With voters in the state having a history of voting for individual candidates and not the party they belong to, the poor performance of the BJP is not surprising.
The party, which has created history in Tripura and Assam, has nothing to cheer about in Meghalaya.
The poor performance of the saffron party could be due to appeals by churches across the state not to vote for a ‘Hindu’ party, which might lead to problems in leading their traditional way of life.
With the Congress having serious problems like legislators deserting the party to join hands with the NPP and others, apart from charges of corruption and underdevelopment during its long tenure, the party has not done too badly.
Chief Minister Mukul Sangma, has won both the Ampati and Songpat constituencies and ministers with corruption charges levelled against them like Ampareen Lyngdoh, who was the education minister in the outgoing cabinet, have registered impressive wins.
Talking to reporters right after her win from Laitumukhurh constituency, in Shillong, Ampareen said, “BJP has done nothing but spread hatred in my constituency. But we are above them and we are trying to mitigate all that by spreading love among the people,” she said.
The personal charisma of Mukul came into focus this election. In fact, the Congress which has been losing ground in every election since the last three years, was hoping that Mukul would play a ‘saviour’ and help the grand old party retain its hold.
During a high-voltage campaign, the Congress brought some of its top leaders and campaigned across the state like never before to save its bastion from the BJP’s onslaught of a 'Congress-mukt Bharat'.
Congress president Rahul Gandhi was involved in this high-pitched campaign and travelled to different parts of the state to woo voters. He mingled with the youth and was seen attending rock concerts, wearing designer jackets in the run-up to the polls.
Although it has become clear that the BJP is not a force to reckon with in Meghalaya, national politics dictated that Congress focus its energy on the BJP rather than NPP.
The fight, in fact, was between NPP and Congress. In Garo Hills, especially, NPP and Congress were trying to get maximum number of seats out of the 24 in the region.
According to the NPP, the issues before Meghalaya’s 3 million voters are not religious but revolve around corruption blocking development and basic needs of the people like roads and education.
In 2013, the BJP had lost all the seats it had contested and secured a vote share of 6.2 per cent. The NPP had won only two seats out of the 32 seats it had contested while the Congress had 29 seats.
So far, no party in Meghalaya has managed to get a clear mandate of 31 seats and the smaller regional parties always play kingmakers.
Except for the first Assembly of 1972, in which the All Party Hill Leaders’ Conference swept the polls after Meghalaya attained statehood, there have been only three instances of a government completing a full term.
Chief minister Mukul Sangma’s government of 2013 was one such government that had completed a full term apart from Captain Williamson Sangma’s 1972 APHLC government and S.C. Marak’s Congress government of 1993.
Political analysts say that the Congress was largely successful in Meghalaya as it played the counter polarisation card. The Congress instilled fear of the saffron party in the minds of the traditional Khasi people. “Fear of the BJP worked for the Congress,” said Noni Gopal Mahanta, professor of political science at Gauhati University.
Declaring 25 December as good governance day or the beef ban politics apart from vandalising of churches in other parts of the country was something the voters were worried about with respect to the BJP coming to power in a state with 90 per cent Christians.