Ankara meet a test of NATO fragility, as Iran, Ukraine poised to subdue China ‘threat’
The upcoming NATO summit in Ankara is set against a backdrop of anti-NATO protests, but the more significant issue is the deep internal division among the 32 member states
The NATO summit in Ankara, despite minor anti-NATO protests, faces deep internal fissures, with discussions expected to focus on ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Iran rather than the China threat in the Indo-Pacific, even though NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has highlighted China's military buildup as a long-term danger. A key agenda item will be assessing member states' compliance with the agreed-upon increase in defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035, a demand driven by the US strategy to shift funding burdens to allies, which could strain domestic welfare sectors. Russia's missile bombardment of Kyiv on the eve of the summit, killing 11, underscores the immediate security concerns, while the Iran theater, particularly regarding the Strait of Hormuz, promises to be a divisive issue, echoing past US frustrations with allied participation and leading to US troop withdrawals. Consequently, representatives from NATO's Indo-Pacific partners may find their agenda less prioritized at this meeting.
The NATO summit in Ankara, despite minor anti-NATO protests, faces deep internal fissures, with discussions expected to focus on ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Iran rather than the China threat in the Indo-Pacific, even though NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has highlighted China's military buildup as a long-term danger. A key agenda item will be assessing member states' compliance with the agreed-upon increase in defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035, a demand driven by the US strategy to shift funding burdens to allies, which could strain domestic welfare sectors. Russia's missile bombardment of Kyiv on the eve of the summit, killing 11, underscores the immediate security concerns, while the Iran theater, particularly regarding the Strait of Hormuz, promises to be a divisive issue, echoing past US frustrations with allied participation and leading to US troop withdrawals. Consequently, representatives from NATO's Indo-Pacific partners may find their agenda less prioritized at this meeting.
The NATO summit in Ankara, despite minor anti-NATO protests, faces deep internal fissures, with discussions expected to focus on ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Iran rather than the China threat in the Indo-Pacific, even though NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has highlighted China's military buildup as a long-term danger. A key agenda item will be assessing member states' compliance with the agreed-upon increase in defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035, a demand driven by the US strategy to shift funding burdens to allies, which could strain domestic welfare sectors. Russia's missile bombardment of Kyiv on the eve of the summit, killing 11, underscores the immediate security concerns, while the Iran theater, particularly regarding the Strait of Hormuz, promises to be a divisive issue, echoing past US frustrations with allied participation and leading to US troop withdrawals. Consequently, representatives from NATO's Indo-Pacific partners may find their agenda less prioritized at this meeting.
No one would seriously be thwarted by the anti-NATO protests across three Turkish cities—Ankara, Istanbul and Izmir—as the Turkish seat of government prepared to host the bloc’s summit on Tuesday and Wednesday (July 7, 8). The protesters carried banners that, among other slogans, read ‘No to NATO, no to war’. The protests were only to be expected.
But they would be indicative of fissures within NATO's grouping of 32 countries. And they run deep...
While NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has recently been vocal about the China threat and the growing collusion between China, Russia, North Korea and Iran, the China factor in the Indo-Pacific will not dominate the deliberations.
Rutte had said, “China is having a massive build-up of its own military [and] will have 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030. So let’s not be naive about China... This foursome (China, Russia, North Korea and Iran) … is the main long-term threat we face.”
Yet, the members will be hard-pressed to show their report card to the US on their military spending amid domestic unease and economic concerns. Last year, the NATO members had agreed to hike defence spending to 5 per cent of their respective GDPs by 2035.
What steers the US demand for bigger defence spending by its NATO allies is US President Donald Trump’s evident strategy to coerce the allies in Europe to fund their own respective military budgets instead of relying on the US for overall security guarantees. The upcoming NATO meeting will be a check of how many countries have moved to comply or whether they are capable of complying with the steep hikes, which will obviously be at the cost of other welfare-oriented sectors.
And then, of course, the conflicts and their courses in Iran and Ukraine will dominate the proceedings.
Meanwhile, on Monday morning, in an obvious message to the NATO meet attendees, Russia bombarded the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv with around 400 missiles and drones on the eve of the NATO summit, killing 11 people and wounding scores. The deadly projectiles included long-range and high-precision ballistic and hypersonic missiles.
In Ankara, President Trump is also scheduled to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
And then there is the Iran theatre, which promises to be much more divisive. Many NATO allies stayed away from direct military operations in the US-led operations in Iran despite Trump’s frequent proddings to be part of it. The US President had sought deployment of warships to the Hormuz Strait to support the US effort to ‘re-open’ the Strait.
A frustrated Trump had called NATO a ‘paper tiger’. His characteristic outburst was followed by the withdrawal of about 5,000 US troops from Germany.
Therefore, in a nutshell, it might be so that the four leaders from NATO’s Indo-Pacific Four (IP4) partner countries—Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand—may not have much to do in Ankara with the strong possibility that the Indo-Pacific may not get the kind of attention it is used to.No one would seriously be thwarted by the anti-NATO protests across three Turkish cities—Ankara, Istanbul and Izmir—as the Turkish seat of government prepared to host the bloc’s summit on Tuesday and Wednesday (July 7, 8). The protesters carried banners that, among other slogans, read ‘No to NATO, no to war’. The protests were only to be expected.
But they would be indicative of fissures within NATO's grouping of 32 countries. And they run deep...
While NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has recently been vocal about the China threat and the growing collusion between China, Russia, North Korea and Iran, the China factor in the Indo-Pacific will not dominate the deliberations.
Rutte had said, “China is having a massive build-up of its own military [and] will have 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030. So let’s not be naive about China... This foursome (China, Russia, North Korea and Iran) … is the main long-term threat we face.”
Yet, the members will be hard-pressed to show their report card to the US on their military spending amid domestic unease and economic concerns. Last year, the NATO members had agreed to hike defence spending to 5 per cent of their respective GDPs by 2035.
What steers the US demand for bigger defence spending by its NATO allies is US President Donald Trump’s evident strategy to coerce the allies in Europe to fund their own respective military budgets instead of relying on the US for overall security guarantees. The upcoming NATO meeting will be a check of how many countries have moved to comply or whether they are capable of complying with the steep hikes, which will obviously be at the cost of other welfare-oriented sectors.
And then, of course, the conflicts and their courses in Iran and Ukraine will dominate the proceedings.
Meanwhile, on Monday morning, in an obvious message to the NATO meet attendees, Russia bombarded the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv with around 400 missiles and drones on the eve of the NATO summit, killing 11 people and wounding scores. The deadly projectiles included long-range and high-precision ballistic and hypersonic missiles.
In Ankara, President Trump is also scheduled to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
And then there is the Iran theatre, which promises to be much more divisive. Many NATO allies stayed away from direct military operations in the US-led operations in Iran despite Trump’s frequent proddings to be part of it. The US President had sought deployment of warships to the Hormuz Strait to support the US effort to ‘re-open’ the Strait.
A frustrated Trump had called NATO a ‘paper tiger’. His characteristic outburst was followed by the withdrawal of about 5,000 US troops from Germany.
Therefore, in a nutshell, it might be so that the four leaders from NATO’s Indo-Pacific Four (IP4) partner countries—Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand—may not have much to do in Ankara with the strong possibility that the Indo-Pacific may not get the kind of attention it is used to.