Even as the ceasefire from the May 2025 conflict holds, and India and Pakistan maintain relative peace along their borders despite the occasional rhetoric that mixes military threats, conditional peace overtures, and accusations of minority violence from various quarters in Islamabad, a US think tank sees the possibility of another conflict between the two countries in 2026.
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The Center for Preventive Action (CPA) of the think tank Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) observed that the world continues to grow more violent and disorderly. In the report, the CPA, which aims to help policymakers come up with timely and practical strategies and solutions to prevent and mitigate armed conflict around the world, especially in places that pose the greatest risk to American interests, hinted at the chances of another conflict between Pakistan and India.
The report sees a 'moderate likelihood' of such a conflict happening, and the conflict is expected to have a ‘moderate impact’ on America.
"Renewed armed conflict between India and Pakistan due to heightened terrorist activity and repression in Indian-administered Kashmir," the report stated.
The report also claimed that the Trump administration sought to end many ongoing conflicts, among them the India-Pakistan conflict.
"The second Trump administration has sought to end many ongoing conflicts, such as those in the Democratic Republic of Congo, the Gaza Strip, and Ukraine, as well as between India and Pakistan, and Cambodia and Thailand," it stated.
The report seems to reiterate the US narrative that the Trump administration ended the military conflict between India and Pakistan—a claim that was rejected by India. India denied any US mediation or pressure, asserting the ceasefire resulted from direct bilateral military talks.
