As you begin the new financial year and open your phone to check the markets, you see it surging in morning trade. But here is something you might not have accounted for: if you had put money into the Sensex exactly two years ago, today’s dramatic rally has brought you right back to where you started, with near-zero profit to show for two years of patience, anxiety and geopolitical turbulence.
On March 28, 2024 (the last trading day of FY 2023–24), the BSE Sensex closed at 73,651.35. The market was on a roll then, opening April 1, 2024, at 73,968.82, fuelled by an unlikely pre-election optimism and a booming domestic economy recovering from the pandemic years.
Two years later, after a bruising month of March that saw the index lose more than 11 per cent, its worst monthly performance in nearly six years, the Sensex closed at 71,947.55 on March 30, 2026, actually 2.3 per cent below where it was two years ago.
Then came April 1, 2026. Indian markets surged in morning trade, with the BSE Sensex jumping 2.8 per cent to 73,964.58 and the Nifty 50 climbing a little over 2.7 per cent to 22,941.30. The trigger was once again, US President Donald Trump. The WWE-guest-wrestler–cum–reality-TV-star–turned–politician’s statement that Washington could wind down its military strikes on Iran within two to three weeks, without requiring Tehran to first sign a deal, seems to have struck a chord with investors all over the world, including India.
For a market battered by soaring crude prices and supply chain anxiety, that was enough to spark a broad-based rally, with all 16 major sectors rising and small-cap and mid-cap indices each gaining comfortably more than 3 per cent. Asian markets surged a little over 4 per cent, and multiple reports suggested that India’s volatility index dropped to 25.1 from near its highest since June 2024.
The morning rally might have lifted Sensex to a high of 73,964.58, but it is just 313 points above its March 28, 2024, close. Twenty-four months of investing, and even at its highest, the gain is just 0.4 per cent. IndiGo soared more than 8 per cent after naming industry veteran Willie Walsh as its new CEO, and became the index’s biggest gainer.
Short-term traders are rejoicing, but many who put money into the 30-pack index back in 2024 are looking at near-zero gains. This does invite some introspection into India’s market, for the April Fools’ Day rally is more of a return to the starting line than a cause for celebration.