India’s merchandise exports to the United States have plunged a staggering 37.5 per cent over five months, the sharpest and fastest in recent trade memory, according to Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI).
Agencies reported GTRI’s findings, where the think tank noted that India’s exports to its top global market (the US) dropped from $8.8 billion in May 2025 to just $5.5 billion in September.
The broad-based fall coincides with the Trump administration’s sweeping tariff hikes—duties started at 10 per cent in April, more than doubled to 25 per cent by early August, and soared to 50 per cent by late August on a large list of Indian goods.
The hit is spread across nearly all major traded sectors, GTRI noted. Pharma shipments to the US dropped 15.7 per cent ($745.6 million to $628.3 million), while metals and auto fell 16.7 per cent.
GTRI’s Ajay Srivastava told agencies that this was less about India losing competitiveness and more about softer US industrial demand, as uniform tariffs penalise all foreign suppliers equally.
The most dramatic declines occurred among labour-intensive and high-growth categories: Exports of smartphones and electronics, booming only a year ago, plunged 58 per cent in under half a year.
Traditional strength areas—like apparel and garments—fell 37 per cent, with garments down 44 per cent and home textiles slumping 16 per cent.
Exports of chemicals, agricultural produce, machinery, gems, jewellery, and seafood all saw declines of 33 per cent or more.
Marine and seafood exports suffered a massive 49 per cent collapse.
Solar panel exports dropped nearly two-thirds, from $202.6 million in May to just $79.4 million in September.
Even sectors shielded from global competition, like iron and steel, reported falls of 8% as global demand cooled further.
“The impact is both deep and widespread,” GTRI’s Ajay Srivastava observed, warning that if the tariffs persist at existing levels, India could face a $30–35 billion reduction in annual exports to the United States over the next year.
Negotiations between India and the US continue in the background, but the data leaves little doubt: higher tariffs, combined with sectoral headwinds in America, have inflicted a sharp “trade shock” on Indian exporters.
