Can Congress in Karnataka navigate the Siddaramaiah-D.K. Shivakumar rivalry?

IN MAY 2023, the Congress pulled off something that had become rare in recent Indian politics: a decisive election victory over the BJP. The Congress won 135 of Karnataka’s 224 assembly seats—its best performance in more than three decades. The BJP was reduced to 66 seats in the only southern state where it had significant support.

But almost as soon as the celebrations ended, an old Congress problem resurfaced: leadership management. In the three years since the election victory, the Congress government in Karnataka has come to be defined as much by its welfare agenda as by the rivalry between Chief Minister Siddaramaiah and Deputy Chief Minister D.K. Shivakumar.

The Siddaramaiah-Shivakumar contest symbolises contrasting political traditions. Siddaramaiah, 77, built his reputation through welfare politics and backward-caste mobilisation. Originally from the Janata parivar before joining the Congress in 2006, he fashioned AHINDA—an acronym in Kannada for minorities, backward classes and dalits—into a formidable social coalition in Karnataka politics.

Shivakumar, by contrast, is the Congress’s organisation man. A wealthy Vokkaliga, he rose through the party machinery rather than through mass mobilisation. His stature within the Congress grew after the collapse of the Congress-Janata Dal (Secular) government in 2019, when he unsuccessfully tried to prevent defections. To many within the party, he became the leader who fought the hardest while others capitulated.

When the Congress won the 2023 polls, both men believed they had earned the chief ministership. The high command in Delhi opted for a compromise: Siddaramaiah became chief minister, while Shivakumar was appointed deputy chief minister and retained the post of state Congress president.

Ever since, Karnataka politics has revolved around speculation over a rotational chief ministership. Apparently, the arrangement—never formally acknowledged by the party—was that Siddaramaiah would govern for half the term before handing over power to Shivakumar.

Siddaramaiah’s loyalists insist that no such pact exists. For his part, Shivakumar has allowed his supporters to project him as a chief minister-in-waiting. The result has been a “dual power centre” government: Siddaramaiah dominates policy, especially flagship welfare schemes such as free bus travel for women and subsidised electricity, while Shivakumar wields influence over party organisation, political management, fundraising and infrastructure-related portfolios. Ministers and legislators have increasingly hedged their loyalties between the two camps.

After the government crossed the halfway mark last November, talk of a leadership transition intensified. The Congress found itself facing a dilemma: marginalising Siddaramaiah risked alienating AHINDA voters, while sidelining Shivakumar threatened to fracture the party organisation.

At recent meetings in Delhi to discuss the leadership issue, Mallikarjun Kharge, Rahul Gandhi and Sonia Gandhi tried to preserve equilibrium. The Siddaramaiah camp argued that a leadership change would destabilise the government. Siddaramaiah himself repeatedly maintained that he would step down only if instructed by the high command—a declaration that his loyalists say constrained him after Rahul Gandhi reportedly asked him to step down.

For the Congress high command, a change in leadership could help blunt anti-incumbency ahead of the 2028 assembly polls. It would also signal that the national leadership—criticised for failing to resolve succession disputes in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh—can still enforce discipline. “The leadership decision is expected to stabilise the state unit,” a senior Congress leader said.

But the risks are considerable. Siddaramaiah’s AHINDA coalition remains the Congress’s electoral backbone. “There is more chance of the Congress weakening, as Siddaramaiah is a mass leader,” said political scientist Ashok Kumar V. of Davangere University. “His Kuruba vote bank acts as his foundational pillar, as they are decisive voters across the state’s 224 assembly seats.” The Kuruba community—to which Siddaramaiah belongs—accounts for more than 7 per cent of the population, making it the state’s fourth-largest social bloc after Lingayats, Vokkaligas and Muslims.

Political surveyor Madan Mohan Jha, who conducted field research during the 2023 election, said Kuruba voters spoke of Siddaramaiah with near reverence. “The Congress will find it difficult to keep the OBC votes intact because you need a mass mobiliser like Siddaramaiah to influence OBC voters,” he said.

To manage the fallout, the high command has reportedly offered Siddaramaiah a Rajya Sabha seat and a national role. But a senior AICC general secretary was candid about the limits of what could be offered: “He will be submitting his resignation to the governor soon. After that he will not accept any position at AICC at the age of 77 because he has never worked in the organisation. At the most, he can be a Congress Working Committee member.”

B.K. Hariprasad, senior Congress leader and close Siddaramaiah ally, confirmed the leadership change during a phone call from New Delhi. But declined to say whether he expected a place in the reshuffled cabinet. “We have to wait and see what will happen to AHINDA after the change of leadership,” he said.