Beyond nuclear: The true aim of US-Israel military action in Iran

The assassination of Iran’s supreme leader has confirmed that the war aims of Israel and the US went beyond the nuclear issue to regime change. The negotiations on the nuclear issue had made progress and military intervention was not justified. Before the US and Israeli military strikes, the heads of nine Arab states had written to President Donald Trump, advising him against the military option. This underlined their apprehension that they would suffer collateral damage in the war. Subsequent events have vindicated their position.

Since the beginning of February, the price of Brent, an international benchmark, has gone up by $4.54 per barrel. Within three days of the war breaking out, it climbed further by $10.42 per barrel. A prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could see it go still higher. An increase of one dollar in the price of oil translates into an increase of 14,000 crore in India’s annual oil import bill.

In addition to crude oil, India sources around 55 per cent of its LNG from the Gulf region, of which Qatar accounts for 40 per cent. Following the attack on its Ras Laffan facility, Qatar has suspended the production and supply of LNG. This has removed, at one stroke, 20 per cent of global LNG supply. The spot price of LNG in the Asian market has nearly doubled to $25 per mmbtu. As a result, the supply of gas to domestic industry in India has been cut by Petronet and GAIL.

As India’s ambassador to Iran, I had the privilege of negotiating Indian participation in the Chabahar port project. We need to complete the project as soon as the situation permits. Geography does not change, and the port will remain important to us for reaching Afghanistan. Similarly, we have to develop the International North-South Transit Corridor (INSTC). This could shorten the time and reduce the cost of doing business with Russia. It is also important for access to Central Asia.

Trump has said that the war may continue for another five weeks. This may not bring about regime change, but it will certainly wreak havoc on the region, which is home to a vast Indian diaspora. There is an urgent need to declare a ceasefire and resume negotiations on the nuclear issue, which had already progressed considerably. Changing course will not be easy after the highest leadership has invested personal capital in the avowed aim of regime change. But it remains a better option than a prolonged war, which will erode American strength to counter the Chinese challenge in the Taiwan Strait and prove a costly gamble in an election year in America.

The author negotiated the Chabahar agreement as ambassador to Iran and was director, GAIL.