Opposition expects caste census to help it take on BJP

On August 7, 1990, prime minister V.P. Singh, driven by his own set of political difficulties, announced in Parliament that the Mandal Commission’s recommendations for reservation for Other Backward Classes would be implemented. It was a turning point for the Indian political system, marking the advent of what came to be known as Mandal politics that was centred on the interests of the backward class voter and transforming the nature of electoral politics with the rise of leaders like Mulayam Singh Yadav, Lalu Prasad, Nitish Kumar and Sharad Yadav.

Three decades later, the country, which is on the cusp of a general election, is witnessing the return of Mandal politics. There is a growing clamour for a caste-based census, with the opposition parties seeking to make it their main election plank. Leaders of the opposition alliance have stressed on carrying out a caste-based census and raising the 50 per cent ceiling on reservation. The results of the caste-based survey carried out in Bihar, which pegs the number of extremely backward classes and other backward classes together at 63 per cent, provide a statistical basis for the demands being made for proportionate reservation and a caste count at the national level.

The last time a caste census was held was in 1931. The Mandal Commission’s recommendations are also based on figures extrapolated from that data. A major point of argument in favour of a caste census is that schemes and affirmative action today are based on outdated figures. OBC leaders believe that their share of the population could be around 60 per cent of the country’s total, and some say it could even be more than 70 per cent. A simmering demand for representation based on current figures now appears to have taken the form of an idea that is irresistible, both socially and politically.

The social sentiment that is being articulated by the political parties is about finding a remedy to the prevailing situation where power and resources are seen as concentrated in the hands of a small section of society. It is felt that political representation has not translated into institutional representation. “To tackle the problem of the oligarchic rule of the Hindu upper caste, the representation of the other sections in the institutions has to be enhanced. Each community’s strength needs to be counted and adequate representation provided to them,” said eminent legal scholar G. Mohan Gopal. “Why has it not been done? Because it is feared that the numbers of the communities that dominate the power structures are much less than their representation.”

A highlight of what could be described as Mandal 2.0 is the spectacular change of stance of the Congress on the subject of caste census and reservation for OBCs. At its plenary session in Raipur earlier this year, besides supporting caste census, the Congress also resolved to bring in reservation for OBCs, Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes in the judiciary and in the private sector. It made a U-turn on the issue of quota-within-quota for the marginalised sections within the reservation for women in the legislatures, supporting it unlike in 2010 when the women’s reservation bill piloted by the Manmohan Singh government did not have a sub-quota. And it also made a commitment to reform the quota for the economically weaker sections by bringing within its ambit the poor from the backward classes and the other marginalised sections.

It was in the Karnataka assembly elections that Congress leader Rahul Gandhi first gave the slogan of ‘Jitni Abadi, Utna Haq’ (proportionate reservation) and made the demand for a caste census. The slogan, a variation of similar slogans raised by socialist ideologue Ram Manohar Lohia and Bahujan Samaj Party founder Kanshi Ram, brought the Congress in sync with the Mandal Commission’s report, which had found virtue in proportionate reservation. More recently, both Rahul and former Congress president Sonia Gandhi, in the context of the women’s reservation bill, backed quota-within-quota in the legislation. “The Congress Working Committee recently passed a resolution for caste census, and the party had also announced at the Raipur session that once we form government at the Centre, we will carry out a caste census,” said Capt Ajay Singh Yadav, chairman of the Congress’s OBC department.

The OBCs were never a dedicated support base of the Congress in the Hindi heartland. The party won elections in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar based on the backing of upper castes, dalits and Muslims, losing those vote banks with the rise of the politics of social justice on the one hand and the hindutva-driven politics of the BJP on the other.

The Congress and its fellow travellers in the opposition alliance feel that in caste census and proportional representation, they have a powerful counter to the BJP’s winning formula of hindutva, welfare and caste combination. It is felt that the issue will help the opposition provide the people with an alternative vision for the elections. It is an issue that the opposition leaders believe will help them reach out to a population that is the largest bloc of voters. “Hindutva is a disputed term which is sought to be applied to the identity of the Hindu majority. We are not in opposition to Hindus. Caste census is not against Hindus,” said Samajwadi Party’s Rajya Sabha MP Javed Ali Khan. “It is better to look at it in terms of using caste awareness to counter the communalisation of society. And this is an effective way of countering divisive forces.”

The demand for caste-based census and proportionate reservation is also aimed at projecting the BJP, which has made its own outreach efforts towards the OBCs, as uncaring when it came to their interests. The effort of the opposition is to interrupt the BJP’s inroads into the OBC votes. In recent years, in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, for example, the BJP has developed a voter base that goes beyond upper castes and includes sections of OBCs and dalits. The BJP has registered remarkable success in garnering OBC votes and it has become a major component of its success story. With Modi, who belongs to the OBC community, at the helm, the BJP has worked hard to woo the backward classes. It has tied up with non-Yadav OBC political parties such as the Apna Dal and the Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party in Uttar Pradesh. There has been an increase in the OBC representation within the party, and 27 ministers at the Centre belong to OBCs. The government recently launched the Vishwakarma Yojana to provide financial assistance to artisans and craftsmen, most of whom are members of the OBC community.

“If the Prime Minister was a well wisher of OBCs, he would have carried out a caste census. Contrary to what he is saying, it will not divide the country but help in improving the lot of the marginalised and the poor,” said Yadav.

Interestingly, the BJP government’s initiative in 2019 to provide 10 per cent reservation to the upper caste youth under the economically weaker sections quota could have resulted in stirring up the OBC quota demands that were already simmering. The EWS quota, against which many petitions were filed in the Supreme Court, was upheld by the top court through a majority verdict of 3-2 in November 2022. It was a clear signal that the 50 per cent ceiling on reservations that the court had put on quota in the Indra Sawhney judgment was not etched in stone because the EWS quota took the reservation ambit beyond 50 per cent. “There are Brahmins, Vaishyas, Muslims and Christians who are counted as OBCs. OBC reservation is, in fact, the real economic reservation since it is based on social, economic, educational and political indicators,” said Mohan Gopal.

The caste survey carried out in Bihar, feel opposition leaders, has strengthened the demands for a caste census at the national level. “The Bihar assembly had passed a unanimous resolution favouring caste census, and Chief Minister Nitish Kumar had led a 11-member delegation to meet Prime Minister Narendra Modi in August 2021 to demand caste census. With the Centre not moving on the issue, the Bihar government undertook a caste head count at the state level,” said JD(U) chief spokesperson K.C. Tyagi.

The caste census figures bolster Nitish’s standing among the backward classes, especially the extremely backward castes that number around 36 per cent who he has carefully cultivated. It also gives the Mahagathbandhan in Bihar a seemingly unbeatable advantage. And the exercise queers the pitch for the BJP, which had together with Nitish done exceedingly well in the state.

There are voices from within the NDA that have also been demanding a caste census at the national level. Union Minister of State for Social Justice Ramdas Athawale has demanded it, and so have its OBC allies, like Om Prakash Rajbhar, who heads the Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party. Rajbhar called the Bihar headcount rushed and faulty, but said the state showed the way and that demands for a caste census would grow fiercer. “It will be asked in neighbouring Uttar Pradesh why a caste head count cannot be conducted in the state or why a national caste census cannot be carried out. Our party is a strong supporter of the idea that the population and socio-economic indicators of different communities should be ascertained, and those who are actually deserving of affirmative action should be given reservation,” said Rajbhar.

The BJP highlights the ruling dispensation’s initiatives targeted at the OBCs and accuses the opposition of politicisation of social justice issues. According to K. Laxman, who heads the BJP’s OBC Morcha, the BJP is still in favour of a caste census. “But there are technical and legal issues involved. OBCs are not a homogenous entity throughout the country. Vaishyas are counted as OBCs in Bihar but not so in other states. Brahmins are counted as OBCs in certain states. So how will these issues be reconciled in the national caste census? We need a thorough and scientific survey,” said Laxman.

For the BJP, the report of the Rohini Commission, which was set up in 2017 to sub-categorise OBCs, could help establish itself further among the non-dominant backward class sections that it has cultivated over the years. According to its findings, of the 2,633 OBCs in the Central list, a handful have garnered a substantial chunk of the benefits. The report was submitted to President Droupadi Murmu in August and its findings have not been made public yet. However, it is also felt that the implementation of the report could be a double-edged sword that would result in a backlash from the dominant OBC sections and consolidate the position of the parties espousing their cause.

Meanwhile, the BJP’s counter strategy also involves pointing out the religious aspect of the OBC quota in opposition-ruled states. For example, Hansraj Ahir, chairman of the National Commission for Backward Classes, has stated that Muslims have been included in the OBC list in West Bengal in a disproportionate manner. This is believed to be the reason why Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee has reservations against making caste census one of the opposition alliance’s main talking points.

Not everyone is comfortable with it, but the caste cauldron has been stirred.