West Bengal assembly bypolls have highlighted the growing dominance of the BJP and Chief Minister Suvendu Adhikari following decisive victories in Nandigram and Rejinagar. These electoral outcomes underscore a deeply fractured Trinamool Congress and significant shifts in minority voting patterns that have left traditional opposition parties struggling for relevance. To mount a formidable challenge against the ruling administration, fragmented opposition groups must discard outdated strategies, rebuild grassroots connections, and establish fresh perspectives to regain voter trust.

West Bengal assembly bypolls have highlighted the growing dominance of the BJP and Chief Minister Suvendu Adhikari following decisive victories in Nandigram and Rejinagar. These electoral outcomes underscore a deeply fractured Trinamool Congress and significant shifts in minority voting patterns that have left traditional opposition parties struggling for relevance. To mount a formidable challenge against the ruling administration, fragmented opposition groups must discard outdated strategies, rebuild grassroots connections, and establish fresh perspectives to regain voter trust.

West Bengal assembly bypolls have highlighted the growing dominance of the BJP and Chief Minister Suvendu Adhikari following decisive victories in Nandigram and Rejinagar. These electoral outcomes underscore a deeply fractured Trinamool Congress and significant shifts in minority voting patterns that have left traditional opposition parties struggling for relevance. To mount a formidable challenge against the ruling administration, fragmented opposition groups must discard outdated strategies, rebuild grassroots connections, and establish fresh perspectives to regain voter trust.

Is there really a formidable opposition in the state? The high victory margin in Assembly bypolls for Nandigram and Rejinagar have shown the might of the BJP and Chief Minister Suvendu Adhikari. The opposition cries foul on unfairness during campaigning and voting process. The BJP rubbish these claims. The question is whether these claims are really true. What are the factors that constitute a weak opposition in West Bengal?

The main factor is the fractured Trinamool Congress (TMC) that has led to formation of two parties ahead of the bypolls. The Mamata Banerjee faction is Mamata All India Trinamool Congress (MAITC) and the Ritrabrata Banerjee faction is Democratic Trinamool Congress (DTC). People who voted for the opposition in the Assembly elections in May voted for Mamata and her party. Things will never be the same. So, who and what have the people voted for? 20 MPs have merged with Nationalist Citizens Party of India (NCPI), which supports the BJP-led NDA alliance.

Mamata supported the Congress candidate in the Nandigram bypolls as her candidate Sanchita Dey Pradhan pulled out of the contest. Congress candidate Milan Pradhan was arrested on September 18, an hour after Mamata made the announcement. Pradhan was let out on bail by the Calcutta High Court on September 29. Was the arrest a message sent to intimidate Mamata and the Congress? Aam Janata Unnayan Party (AJUP) won the seat in the May Assembly elections and Humayun Kabir was confident his son Golam Nabi Azad would win, but the opposite came true. Kabir even stated he would give up politics after being detained by police for moving from booth to booth and violating the Model Code of Conduct (MCC) on October 6 while polling was in progress.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi expressed gratitude to voters for choosing BJP in Nandigram and Rejinagar, to work for the welfare of people. Adhikari attributes the huge victory margin to Muslim minority voters who have changed their anti-saffron mindset, which the CM said was created by the erstwhile TMC regime. He stated that 80 per cent Muslims voted for BJP in Nandigram and 60 per cent of the community backed the party in Rejinagar. The Muslim minority votes went predominantly to the Left Front and thereafter to Mamata during her regime. Some minority votes were divided between Congress, Left, Indian Secular Force (ISF) and AJUP.

There are barely any rallies called by both the Mamata and Ritabrata faction in the state, with the CHC intervening to grant permission and decide the time frame including other conditions. The Left Front, which was in power for 34 years before Mamata’s 15-year rule, has just two MLAs in the West Bengal Legislative Assembly currently. The Left still has a presence in educational institutions like Jadavpur University and Presidency University.

However, Adhikari has given a strong diktat to the young comrades to get in line because anti-national forces or slogans will not be tolerated under his rule. The attack on CPI(M) leader Bikash Ranjan Bhattacharya’s house on Thursday by an unknown assailant throwing bottles and also damaging the CCTV camera was condemned by the CM. However, Adhikari said the accused was identified and arrested while also issuing a stern warning to Bhattacharya over his social media post alleging that Hindutva forces were behind the attack. He was given an ultimatum to remove the word “Hindutva” from his post within 24 hours.

Where does this leave the opposition? While hitting out at Mamata, Adhikari said that the TMC will never be able to rise again and quipped that Mamata is trying to piggy back on Congress leader Rahul Gandhi by joining protests, demanding Chief Election Commissioner (CEC) Gyanesh Kumar’s resignation.

The BJP regime in the state has just begun. To rise and give the saffron party a tough fight will require the opposition parties to reach voters at the grassroots, gain the confidence of Muslim voters and build on the perception of working for the welfare of citizens. An uphill task, but one which will dismantle old strategies and usher in fresh perspectives to establish a new connection either individually or by joining hands to form an alliance. 

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