For the first time in over a decade, Israel and Syria are engaged in serious negotiations that could pave the way for normal diplomatic ties. Under quiet US mediation, the two long-time adversaries are exploring a potential non-aggression pact, raising the prospect of eventual normalisation. While both sides are yet to agree on a final framework, the talks signal a dramatic shift in regional dynamics, particularly since the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime late last year.
The fall of Assad on December 8, after the militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) seized Damascus, has altered the strategic map. Assad, long seen as an ally of Iran and a staunch enemy of Israel, fled the country after over a decade of brutal civil war. His successor, HTS supremo Ahmed al-Shara, has taken power at the head of a new rebel-led government and is actively engaging in back-channel diplomacy.
The United States, which played a central role in the transition, has thrown its weight behind al-Shara’s administration. President Donald Trump recently lifted most sanctions on Syria and revoked the terrorist designation of HTS. US officials say they now view al-Shara as a potential stabilising force and have encouraged him to enter talks with Israel as part of a broader regional realignment.
Both Israel and Syria share overlapping security concerns, particularly around Iran and its regional proxies. Tehran had been Assad’s main backer during the civil war, but al-Shara has shown little interest in continuing that alliance. Israeli and US officials believe this offers a unique opening for diplomacy.
Al-Shara, for his part, appears eager to establish relations with Western capitals, which could help him gain legitimacy and attract investment.
The initial aim of the talks is modest: restoring the 1974 Disengagement Agreement that created a UN-patrolled buffer zone in the Golan Heights. Since Assad’s fall, Israel has stepped up its incursions into southern Syria and carried out numerous airstrikes, claiming they are necessary to prevent Iranian-backed forces from gaining ground. Syrian officials say restoring the disengagement agreement would help de-escalate tensions and avoid further military confrontation.
Syria’s Foreign Minister, Asaad Hassan al-Shaibani, said recently that his government was prepared to work with the US to revive the agreement, calling it “an essential first step” towards future stability. Israeli officials have responded cautiously but positively. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is reported to have instructed National Security Council head Tzachi Hanegbi to oversee the talks, with help from US envoy Thomas Barrack Jr.
In the background, Saudi Arabia is quietly watching these developments with interest. A senior royal source told Israeli broadcaster KAN that Riyadh sees the Syria–Israel talks as a potential model for its own future normalisation with the Israeli government. The source noted that the kingdom is particularly encouraged by the exclusion of Hamas from the proposed trilateral framework involving Syria, Israel and the Palestinian Authority.
Riyadh’s strategic calculus has shifted in recent years, especially after the Abraham Accords normalised ties between Israel and several Arab states.
While Saudi Arabia has not yet joined the accords, officials believe that a breakthrough between Israel and Syria could bolster the case for a wider regional alignment. However, the source also said the kingdom remains uneasy about Israeli airstrikes in Syria, which it believes have destabilised the situation further.
Despite the regional optimism, serious hurdles remain. Syrian officials close to al-Shara have demanded a halt to Israeli aggression in the south, though they are reportedly open to gradual confidence-building measures rather than full diplomatic recognition at this stage. The issue of the Golan Heights, which Israel captured from Syria in 1967 and later annexed, could be another challenge. Al-Shara has not insisted on its immediate return, but for most Syrians, it is a critical issue.
Another complication could be Israel’s recent interventions in southern Syria on behalf of the Druze minority during sectarian strife. Members of the Druze community have accused Israel of trying to sow discord. Al-Shara’s government, though distrusted by some minorities, has called on Israel to cease its military provocations and withdraw from recently occupied territories beyond the Golan.
The Trump administration, meanwhile, is pushing for Syria to eventually join the Abraham Accords. Although Syrian officials have so far resisted, the current talks are seen as a crucial stepping stone. A formal peace treaty may be far off, but a non-aggression pact could stabilise the border and reduce the risk of further conflict.
US envoy Barrack has proposed that the two countries begin with a phased agreement, combining security guarantees with political gestures. Israeli officials have listed several conditions: no Iranian or Turkish military presence in Syria, demilitarisation of southern areas, and a commitment from Damascus to prevent the return of Hezbollah-affiliated groups.
Syrian businessman and political activist Shadi Martini who visited the Israeli parliament on July 9 said al-Sharaa thought of the normalisation process with Israel as a once-in-a-century opportunity. Addressing the inaugural conference of the Knesset Lobby for Advancing a Regional Security Arrangements, Martini, who fled Syria during its civil war in 2012, told Israeli parliamentarians that he met with al-Sharaa a fortnight ago. “One thing that stuck with me that President al-Sharaa said was: ‘We only have these opportunities once every 100 years, it’s a very unique opportunity, but the window will not always stay open.'”