The US presidential election season often coincides with the Atlantic hurricane season, and major storms can significantly impact political outcomes. This year, two powerful hurricanes—Helene and Milton—are adding to the political drama. Hurricane Helene, which turned out to be the deadliest storm since Hurricane Katrina (2004), hit in late September, killing over 230 people and causing widespread destruction across the southeastern states, particularly in North Carolina and Georgia. Closely following Helene was Hurricane Milton, which made landfall near Siesta Key, Florida, as a category-3 storm on October 9. It was the fifth hurricane to make landfall in the US this season.
Relief and rescue efforts, unfortunately, are hampered by blatant politicisation of the tragedy, led by Republican candidate Donald Trump. Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, one of his chief acolytes, even insinuated that the storms were “man made”.
Republicans know that hurricanes can make or break presidential campaigns. Back in 1992, president George H.W. Bush paid a price in Florida as the federal response to Hurricane Andrew was found wanting. He had won Florida by a massive 22 points in 1988. That margin came down to just two points in 1992. And that narrow victory came at a big cost as he was forced to spend considerable time and money in the Sunshine State, hurting his efforts elsewhere, leading to this ultimate loss to Democratic challenger Bill Clinton.
Twelve years later, his son president George W. Bush showed that he had learned from his father’s mistakes. Florida was hit by four hurricanes that season, beginning with Hurricane Charley in August. Bush was ready, visiting affected neighbourhoods and coordinating the federal government’s relief efforts. And it showed in the polls. While he won Florida with a bitterly contested 537 vote margin against Al Gore in 2000, his margin went up to 3.8 lakh votes in 2004, a win that proved to be decisive in his re-election. Bush, however, lost all that goodwill a year later as the federal government botched its efforts in handling Hurricane Katrina. It tarnished his image and proved to be a major factor behind the Republican rout in the 2006 midterms.
The role of hurricanes in influencing elections was evident again in 2012 with Hurricane Sandy, which struck the American east coast barely a few days before elections. It turned out to be a major help for president Barack Obama as it gave him a chance to display his leadership qualities. It also stalled the momentum his Republican challenger Mitt Romney had been building in the final days of the campaign. Exit polls showed that 15 per cent of voters said Obama’s hurricane response was the most important factor that influenced their voting, and a majority of them supported the incumbent president.
No wonder Trump is using Hurricanes Helene and Milton for electoral gains, actively shaping the public perception of the disaster. He has been engaging in a concerted effort to control the messaging surrounding the federal government’s response, especially in the case of Helene, as the two most affected states, Georgia and North Carolina, are crucial for him.
Latest opinion polls show Trump leading Harris by just one percentage point in both Georgia and North Carolina. Winning both states are crucial for him. In 2020, Biden won Georgia by about 12,000 votes, underscoring the unpredictability of the results. In North Carolina, nearly a million votes were cast in the 25 counties designated for Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) hurricane assistance. Similarly, in Georgia, approximately 6.5 lakh votes were cast in the more than 40 FEMA-designated counties.
These storm-affected areas fall predominantly in rural areas that have historically voted Republican. Trump relies on these counties to balance Democratic votes from more urban areas. However, the storms have also devastated regions that are important to Democrats. For example, the Buncombe county in North Carolina, home to the city of Asheville, typically votes Democrat. In Georgia, Chatham county, which includes Savannah, and Richmond county, which houses Augusta, help the Democrats balance the advantage Republicans enjoy in southern Georgia.
Among the numerous rumours being circulated by Trump and other Republicans include claims that FEMA will exhaust its funds by the end of the year on account of aid provided to illegal immigrants, that the Biden administration is only distributing meagre resources in hurricane assistance and that the federal government is blocking aid to North Carolina in order to seize private land for lithium mining. At a rally in Michigan, Trump said Vice President Kamala Harris had misallocated FEMA funds for housing migrants. He also claimed that no helicopters had been deployed to rescue individuals in North Carolina. In a post on Truth Social on September 30, he wrote that the federal government and North Carolina's Democratic governor were deliberately not assisting Republican voters.
Federal officials warned that such disinformation, which were, in fact, condemned by several local Republican leaders, could affect relief efforts. They said it hurt the distribution of aid, forcing disaster recovery officials to divert time and resources to counteract misinformation. FEMA, in fact, was forced to launch a website just to issue clarifications about the allegations.
Alejandro Mayorkas, who heads the homeland security department, said the misinformation was hindering efforts to assist those affected who are eligible for federal aid. He was particularly unhappy about the rumour that federal employees providing hurricane assistance would seize individuals’ land. “This misconception is preventing survivors from seeking help and accessing the relief they are entitled to,” he said. “False information only serves to empower criminal elements that exploit vulnerable individuals.”
Much of FEMA’s operations are financed through its disaster relief fund, which is replenished round the year both through the annual budget and through supplemental funding. The funds do not expire, enabling FEMA to access them as and when required. Over the past few years, FEMA’s baseline funding, too, has increased, thanks to multiple hurricanes or global crises like Covid.
With Trump-fuelled rumours getting out of hand, President Joe Biden spoke up on October 9, accusing his predecessor of spreading "outright lies", which he said were damaging the morale of emergency workers and confusing hurricane victims. At a briefing with federal officials about Hurricane Milton, Biden said Trump and other senior Republicans were involved in a “reckless and relentless spread of disinformation and outright lies”. “This undermines confidence in the remarkable rescue and recovery efforts already underway and those that will continue. It is especially harmful to those who need help the most.”
Harris, who was forced to cut short a campaign trip to Nevada to return to Washington for an event at the FEMA headquarters, too, criticised Trump for lacking empathy and spreading lies. “It reflects the height of irresponsibility and callousness. Lives are literally at stake right now,” she said during an interview with ABC. “The idea that someone would play political games for their own benefit is typical of Donald Trump.”
Another significant concern is the impact of the hurricanes on election infrastructure. In the hardest-hit areas, election facilities have been damaged, raising questions about the ability of voters to access polling stations or vote by mail. The next few weeks will be crucial in ensuring that the election process can proceed smoothly in the affected regions, as it could make or mar the elections for both Trump and Harris.