AFTER PROVING MAJORITY in the Maharashtra assembly on July 4, one of the first things that Chief Minister Eknath Shinde did was to visit the memorials of Shiv Sena founder Balasaheb Thackeray and his mentor, Anand Dighe. The act was clearly aimed at conveying the message that he remained a Shiv Sainik, and that he wanted to follow in the footsteps of Thackeray and Dighe.
Earlier in the assembly, Shinde had spoken in detail about how his rise in the Shiv Sena was hampered by the coterie around Uddhav Thackeray, Balasaheb’s son and Shiv Sena chief. Shinde, who was public works minister in the Devendra Fadnavis government from 2014 to 2019, said Union Minister Nitin Gadkari had told him that he would soon be promoted to deputy chief minister. “But that did not happen, as the [Sena] leadership made sure that the party did not take the deputy chief minister post. I did not protest or say anything, though. I obeyed party orders,” said Shinde in a candid and heartfelt speech.
He said he could have become chief minister after the Shiv Sena-led Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) came to power in 2019. “But that, too, did not happen as we (Shiv Sainiks) were told that Pawar saheb (Nationalist Congress Party president Sharad Pawar) had told Uddhav saheb that senior NCP leaders like Ajit Pawar would not agree to work under anyone other than Uddhav Thackeray. Then Uddhav saheb became chief minister and we got down to work. A few months later, I casually asked Ajit dada whether he and other NCP leaders had made such a demand. To my surprise, Ajit dada told me that the NCP had not made any such demand, and nor had it opposed my name. He said the decision on who becomes chief minister was entirely left to the Sena leadership,” said Shinde.
He then lashed out at Uddhav without naming him: “We were not born with a silver spoon in our mouth, unlike some people,” he said. “We have toiled away for 40 years to make the Shiv Sena strong. We have been in jail several times and faced cases. Is it wrong for a common man to aspire to become chief minister?”
The speech, which was Shinde’s first in the assembly as chief minister, left no doubt that he would continue to take on the Uddhav group. The next round of the Shinde-Uddhav battle will be fought in the Supreme Court on July 11, when petitions filed by the two sides come up for hearing. As the trust vote on July 4 revealed, as many as 40 of 55 Shiv Sena legislators are with Shinde, apart from 10 independent MLAs.
Several factors prompted the BJP’s central leadership to make Shinde the chief minister. One, he had successfully taken control of the Shiv Sena legislature party by ensuring the backing of 39 MLAs, nine of whom were ministers in the MVA government. The 40th MLA, Santosh Bangar, joined Shinde on the day of the trust vote.
Two, Shinde is a Maratha, while Fadnavis is a Brahmin. The BJP does not have a strong Maratha face. Indeed, state BJP president Chandrakant Patil is a Maratha, but he does not have enough political heft. Also, the agitation demanding reservations in jobs and education for the Maratha community had peaked during Fadnavis’s tenure as chief minister. Sensing the problem, the BJP’s central leadership had wanted Patil to come to Fadnavis’s aid and solve the issue. Patil did help Fadnavis, but he hardly had any influence over the Maratha community leaders.
The fight goes on: Uddhav Thackeray at the Shiv Sena Bhavan in Mumbai | Amey Mansabdar
Three, the BJP wants to support the Shinde group’s claim that they are the real Shiv Sena. The party apparently wants to uproot the Thackeray dynasty. Top BJP leaders feel that, under Uddhav and his son, Aditya—both of whom do not have the kind of charisma, influence and sheer will that the late Balasaheb had—the Sena organisation was being eaten away by Pawar and the NCP.
The BJP will provide all legal support to the Shinde group to prove before the Supreme Court that it is the real Shiv Sena. In case the claim is rejected, the Shinde group will be given the chance to merge with the BJP and contest the 2024 assembly polls on party tickets.
Fadnavis’s decision to accept the post of deputy chief minister was more surprising than Shinde’s elevation as chief minister. BJP leaders and legislators in Maharashtra were stunned into silence when Fadnavis announced that Shinde would be the next chief minister and that the BJP would join his government. “I will not be part of the government, but I will guide it from outside, and extend all possible help to ensure smooth governance,” Fadnavis said after the announcement.
The BJP’s central leadership soon intervened and forced Fadnavis to accept the post of deputy chief minister. It was the party’s national president J.P. Nadda who first asked Fadnavis to join the government. Fadnavis told Nadda that he would like to be appointed as state BJP president. He told the same to Union Home Minister Amit Shah. Fadnavis finally relented when Prime Minister Narendra Modi personally asked him to join the government.
A section of BJP leaders in Maharashtra saw that these developments have in a way clipped Fadnavis’s wings. After becoming chief minister, Fadnavis himself had cut to size party colleagues like Vinod Tawde, Pankaja Munde and Eknath Khadse. Even Sharad Pawar remarked that Fadnavis did not look happy while taking oath as Shinde’s deputy. “But, in his party, orders from Nagpur (the RSS headquarters) and Delhi are always to be obeyed,” said Pawar.
The challenges before Shinde-Fadnavis government, already being called the ED government (Eknath and Devendra), will begin right from cabinet formation. “Shinde has to accommodate 50 MLAs who have backed him,” said political analyst Abhay Deshpande. “How he does this will be very interesting to see. Otherwise, they will be free to go back. Uddhav Thackeray has served disqualification notice to only 16 MLAs, leaving the door open for others.”
According to Deshpande, the legal battle in the Supreme Court will decide the future of not just the government, but the Shinde group as well. “Then there are challenges like the grim financial situation of the state coffers,” he said. “But now, the Centre will make sure that it extends all possible help to the state government.”
Deshpande pointed out that Shinde and Fadnavis make for a potent political combination. Shinde, who hails from Satara district in western Maharashtra, has mass rural appeal, while Fadnavis is hugely popular among the middle and upper classes. And both of them champion hindutva. “They have to make sure that there is a clear understanding between them, and that neither of them plays games of one-upmanship,” Deshpande said.
BJP legislator Atul Bhatkhalkar said big development projects would have to be fast-tracked. “The immediate challenge before the BJP is elections to the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation and other municipal bodies,” said Bhatkhalkar. “With our government in power, it will be easier for us to wrest control of the BMC from the Shiv Sena, while the chief minister will make sure that the Thane Municipal Corporation remains with him in alliance with us.”
Another BJP leader, however, expressed concerns about the emergence of two power centres in the government, as both Shinde and Fadnavis are known to be super-active. “In the previous government, Uddhav Thackeray was totally inactive while Ajit dada went on an overdrive, taking decisions and expanding his party. In the current government, though, both the chief minister and the deputy chief minister will have to maintain a very fine balance of power.”
Shinde and Fadnavis have already announced that they would scrutinise all decisions taken by the MVA government in the past fortnight. “Some 160 GRs (government resolutions) were passed in great hurry when this crisis was developing. So we will have to examine these decisions,” said Shinde.
The uncertainty over granting a quota to Other Backward Classes in local body polls is also something that the Shinde-Fadnavis government will have to handle delicately. OBCs, by and large, have always supported the BJP in Maharashtra politics. So the BJP wants to make sure that the empirical data that the SC had asked for—to allow the notification of polls after reserving seats for OBCs—is collected as soon as possible. The elections, which were due early this year, are likely to be held in October. But, if the government feels that it is unable to gather empirical data by then, it may further postpone the polls.