For the first time since the revocation of Article 370, a realignment of political forces is taking place in Kashmir. The move is aimed at creating a third front that would act as a counterweight to the National Conference and the People’s Democratic Party. A third front will not only reduce the political heft of the two dominant parties but also help the BJP normalise the constitutional changes it made to J&K on August 5, 2019.
The first attempt to create an alternative to the two political parties was the launching of the J&K Apni Party (JKAP) by former PDP leader Altaf Bukhari in 2020. Bukhari had urged the political parties to stop mourning the scrapping of Article 370 and focus on the development of J&K. Several leaders from the PDP and the Congress joined JKAP, but the party lacked mass support. The NC and the PDP labelled the party as the BJP’s proxy. But the party performed below par in the District Development Council (DDC) polls, the first political exercise in the newly formed Union Territory.
Though the BJP emerged as the single largest party with 75 of 280 seats in the polls, the six-party People’s Alliance for Gupkar Declaration (PAGD) led by Farooq Abdullah, which seeks the restoration of Article 370 and statehood to J&K, won an impressive 110 seats out of 280 seats.
The failure of the JKAP to make a mark may have disappointed policymakers at the Centre, but the chances of a third front increased manifold after the People’s Conference (PC) quit the PAGD in January. In a letter to Abdullah, PC leader Sajad Lone cited the fielding of proxy candidates by the PADG members against each other in the DDC polls as a breach of trust.
Political observers believe that the chances of a third front comprising the PC, JKAP and others are real. On March 17, the idea received a boost after veteran politician Muzaffar Hussain Baig, who had quit the PDP last November, joined the PC. Baig had long supported the creation of a third front and said he would join if it was led by the PC. “Baig sahab has an old relationship with our family, and he cared for us in our childhood,” said Lone. “He started his political life also from the People’s Conference.”
Baig’s association with the Lones goes back many decades. He was an associate of Lone’s father, Abdul Gani Lone, a lawyer who founded the PC in 1976. Baig was an active member of the PC for many years before taking a break to do his master’s in law. In 1996, he returned to politics and joined the PDP founded by Mufti Muhammad Sayyed, and entered the assembly from Baramulla in 2002. His joining the People’s Conference will strengthen the party in Baramulla, Bandipora and Kupwara in north Kashmir. The 75-year-old politician who commands influence among the Pahari-speaking population in north Kashmir is likely to attract more politicians to the PC’s fold from the PDP. According to sources, at least three leaders from the Baramulla district and other second-rung leaders are also likely to join the PC soon.
A month before Baig joined the PC, his wife, Safina, was elected chairperson of the DDC Baramulla with the support of the PC. “Sajad sahab has risen above politics and proved relations are not only about blood,” she said after being elected.
What the alliance between the PC, JKAP and the BJP could do was evident when the secret ballot was held to select the chairpersons for the DDCs. Given the numbers, the PAGD was all set to take control of at least six of the 10 DDCs in Kashmir. It needed only the support of one elected member each in the three other districts to take its tally to nine. After the secret ballot was held on February 13, the alliance managed to secure control of only five DDCs and failed to secure the support of independents in other districts. In contrast, the JKAP that won only 12 seats across the UT took control of two DDCs in Kashmir. In Kupwara district, the PAGD had won nine out of the 14 council seats when the election was held, but the PC emerged the winner. The party which had won four seats received support from JKAP’s lone councillor and three independents.
The post-election exit of the PC from the PAGD also spoiled the alliance’s chances of selecting its chairperson in Kupwara district. The PAGD also suffered a setback in Budgam. The alliance had won ten seats, but an independent, Nazir Ahmed, was elected chairperson after three PAGD members cross-voted. And the JKAP got control of Srinagar and Shopian districts.
Reacting to the results, PDP president Mehbooba Mufti tweeted: “So much for Vajpayee ji’s vision of insaniyat, Kashmiriyat and jamhuriyat. Not surprised at all by recent DDC chairmanship results. Two months were given to buy and intimidate the DDC members.” The NC raised concerns of horse-trading and defections with state Election Commissioner K.K. Sharma.
An NC statement said: “…such defections undermined the spirit of democracy and violated the people’s mandate, so such DDC members who have changed the party affiliations post-elections should be disqualified and until proceedings in that direction [are] initiated such DDC members should be debarred from voting. The State election commissioner assured [National Conference leaders] that he would examine the matter.”
Political observers believe north Kashmir is likely to emerge as the base for the third front as the area comprises a mix of Kasmhiris, Paharis and Gojris. The area witnesses high participation in elections and no political party dominates the area. The area has 15 seats out of 46 in the valley and is home to the People’s Conference and Awami Itehad; the two parties came second and third respectively in Baramulla in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. The NC had won the seat.