When Shivraj Singh Chouhan reached Delhi for the second time in a week on July 5, the rumour mills began churning. Though the Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister was “officially” there to meet Union ministers about developmental work in his state, it was widely seen as a visit to get the BJP leadership’s nod for the allocation of portfolios to his recently inducted cabinet ministers. The fact that he met with Union Home Minister Amit Shah and BJP president J.P. Nadda only bolstered the rumours.
Apparently, Jyotiraditya Scindia, who got 11 of his aides into the cabinet of 34, apart from three other former Congress MLAs, was pressuring Chouhan for portfolios of his choice. Knowing that his loyalist ministers would have to face byelections soon, Scindia wanted departments that had a direct connect with the people, said sources. Chouhan, too, wanted these departments, either for himself or for the original BJP members.
However, wanting to avoid a tussle, Chouhan had once again deferred to the central leadership, said sources.
The portfolios were assigned on July 13, 11 days after the cabinet expansion. And though a balance was struck, the Scindia camp looks more dominant, having gotten the departments of its choice.
Congress leaders were quick to point out Chouhan’s “helplessness” as a chief minister, and brought up rumours that he might be replaced, at the first opportunity, by someone like Union Minister Narendra Singh Tomar or Madhya Pradesh Home Minister Narottam Mishra.
Political watchers, too, said that Chouhan was no longer the BJP’s supreme leader in Madhya Pradesh. The challenge for the mild-mannered Chouhan comes from within, they added. He would not only have to watch out for Scindia, but also mollify the party’s old guard.
Chouhan would now have to prove his mettle by ensuring that the party wins enough seats in the byelections, not just to get a majority in the house, but also to get the public’s approval on the political coup that the BJP staged in March, getting 22 Congress MLAs to jump ship.
Chouhan was somewhat of a nobody when he was made chief minister in 2005. The young leader, 46 then, clawed his way to the top strategically and confidently. He was called ‘paaon paaon waale bhaiya’ because of his frequent foot marches in his parliamentary constituency of Vidisha, and later became the well-loved ‘Mama’ (maternal uncle) of the masses. He continued to be on the ground, mingling with voters and speaking their language.
Chouhan managed to win the 2008 and 2013 state elections, despite facing corruption charges in an alleged scam related to the purchase of four dumpers in 2007, and later the Vyapam recruitment scam, which got national attention.
Even though the BJP lost the 2018 assembly elections, it got 109 of the 230 seats and a higher vote share than the Congress, despite facing anti-incumbency of three terms. The credit for this went to Chouhan’s lone campaign against the formidable Congress trio of Scindia, Kamal Nath and Digvijaya Singh.
However, that slim margin of loss seemed to have changed everything. “A chief minister is usually the first among equals,” said political author Rasheed Kidwai. “But with the latest developments, Chouhan cannot claim to be first among equals anymore. He had no direct role in the entire episode (the Scindia-led defection); that was scripted by central leaders and the chief ministership came to him as a favour. This is different from getting the post after leading from the front to win an election. And now, he is being made to pay a price for that. I believe that the [recent developments] might not be one-offs, but part of a list of big challenges that Chouhan will have to face.”
He added that the byelections to 25 seats would be tricky as 14 ministers (former Congress MLAs) will be in the fray. “It is being said that the BJP might like four or five of these ministers to lose so that those left out in the party could be accommodated as ministers,” said Kidwai. “Technically, the BJP requires just nine seats to get a majority in the house, but prestige is at stake and the party might look to win about 20. In my view, 18 is the benchmark. Anything less will reflect poorly on Chouhan and the party.”
Said political analyst Manish Dixit: “If Chouhan has to rush to Delhi [for] even such things, the situation is tough. This is the first time this is happening to him. It looks like he wants to stick to his post at any cost, which is not a comfortable situation for a leader who has enjoyed unchallenged leadership for 13 years.”
However, he added that Chouhan had an inherent capability to bounce back from tricky situations and to best his opponents, such as BJP national general secretary Kailash Vijayvargiya, former chief minister Uma Bharti, BJP national vice president Prabhat Jha, or even ministers Narottam Mishra and Gopal Bhargava. “It will be interesting to watch out for his moves in this context,” he said.
Kidwai, however, said that Scindia would be a far tougher customer as he had a direct line with the central leadership, a clear national image of his own and was quite media savvy, too.
Looking ahead, political analyst Aman Namra said Chouhan would have to work hard to run a government made up, in part, of Congress rebels. “The rumours of Mishra or Tomar getting command making the rounds when Chouhan was in Delhi is an indicator that even if the tiger is alive, his roar does not have the same echo or his claws do not have the same power,” he said. “This time, the crown of power has more thorns.”
Chouhan’s position, said former Congress minister Jitu Patwari, could be gauged from the fact that he did not have even a single minister of his choice in his cabinet. “This does not augur well for the state and its future looks dark if this government continues,” said Patwari.
State BJP chief spokesperson Deepak Vijayvargiya, however, dismissed such readings. “The BJP is in no trouble,” he said. “The Congress has still not been able to absorb the shock of having the rug pulled from under it. It should pay attention to finding some stability, rather than commenting on the BJP.”