Early this year, the journalism department at Pazhassi Raja College at Pulpally in Wayanad held a debate on the pros and cons of Rahul Gandhi contesting from the Lok Sabha seat named after the district. The debate, however, was not very vigorous, because all the students—a cross section of the electorate in Wayanad, comprising Hindus, Muslims, Christians and tribals—wanted the Congress president to contest from the constituency.
Statisticians deputed by the Congress’s national leadership had by then begun making frequent visits to the district, sparking rumours that Rahul was considering the option. Speculation reached fever pitch in the past two weeks, as the Congress delayed announcing its candidate for the seat. In the end, Rahul took heed of the wave in Wayanad and chose it as his anchor point in south India.
“Rahul will win Wayanad with a record margin,” said Ramesh Chennithala, opposition leader in the assembly. His optimism is well-founded, as Wayanad has been a Congress bastion since its formation in 2009.
The Wayanad constituency comprises seven assembly segments across three districts. Three of these assembly segments are in Malappuram district, the only Muslim-dominated district in Kerala. The fourth segment, in Kozhikode district, also has significant minority representation. The remaining three, all in Wayanad district, are Hindu-dominated.
The Wayanad constituency has 13.26 lakh voters—41.44 per cent Muslims, 40.13 per cent Hindus and 18.41 per cent Christians. The sociopolitical dynamics, which favour the Congress, make it a safe seat for Rahul. “We will ensure that Rahul wins the election with a majority that will not be surpassed in the near future,” said I.C. Balakrishnan, district Congress president.
The Congress hopes that the enthusiasm will spill over into the other 19 seats in the state. “We will win 20 of 20 seats,” said state party president Mullappally Ramachandran.
The possibility of such a pan-Kerala effect has rattled the left. There is also the larger question of how Rahul’s decision would affect opposition unity at the national level. Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan was the first to question Rahul’s intentions. “Who is his enemy—the BJP or left parties? Rahul should make it clear,” he said.
After the initial shock over the decision, the CPI(M) dismissed the Congress president as “just one of 20 rival candidates”. But the dismay still lingers, as evident from the recent editorial in the CPI(M) mouthpiece Deshabhimani calling him ‘Pappu’, and a social media post by former chief minister V.S. Achuthanandan, explaining why Rahul is an ‘Amul Baby’. “Rahul’s decision will have a devastating effect on the CPI(M),” said journalist Jacob George.
What worries the CPI(M) the most is Rahul’s impact on minority votes—especially Muslim youth, whom the party had been wooing for some time. “There is a strong possibility of Rahul affecting the party’s prospects in nearby constituencies like Kozhikode, Vadakara and Kannur,” said a CPI(M) state committee member. “But his arrival has made our cadres extra alert.”
The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance has fielded Thushar Vellappally of the Bharat Dharma Jana Sena in Wayanad, making the fight more difficult for the left. The NDA candidate had got more than 80,000 votes in 2014.
Conversations in teashops dotting the nine hairpin bends leading to the district reflect the intensity of the fight. While the communists question the “morality” of Rahul’s “below-the-belt blow”, Congress workers ask what is wrong in his decision to contest from their party bastion.
During one such discussion, a person brought up BJP leader Prerna Kumari’s controversial tweet, which said people in Wayanad were celebrating Rahul’s decision by waving Pakistani flags. (The flags were of the Indian Union Muslim League, a Congress ally.) “The Congress has already asked the League fellows not to bring their flags for campaigning,” quipped a person who claimed to be “apolitical”.
Everyone ponders over the possibility of Rahul preferring Amethi over Wayanad, if he wins both the seats. “We do anticipate that,” said Abin Varghese of Pulpally. “But Wayanad, one of the most backward areas in Kerala, will be close to his heart.”
Nobody is suggesting that Wayanad is not a safe seat for Rahul, but there is much talk about the tricky situations he may face here. One such challenge may come in the form of kappa biryani—a spicy dish made of tapioca and beef, the quintessential food of Wayanad. “What will Rahul do if someone offers him kappa biryani?” asked Jyothish R., a BJP supporter, as he stood next to a hotel that offered the dish. Everyone near him ignored the question.
There are other political hot potatoes. The Supreme Court order permitting the entry of women into Sabarimala is one. Rahul and the Congress leaders in Kerala were not on the same boat regarding the state government’s decision to implement the order. “Unlike in Amethi, the people of Wayanad are politically very aware,” said author O.K. Johny. “Rahul should come prepared to face tough questions.”
Observers have also questioned Rahul’s political wisdom. “When our country is in such a precarious situation, Rahul should not have divided the opposition. It is also very bad for the state in the long run,” said author and political analyst Shajahan Madampat.
For the state, perhaps; but certainly not for the Congress in Kerala. The party had been struggling to retain its base in recent times, with both the CPI(M) and the BJP chipping away at it. The fierce intra-party rivalries had also taken its toll.
The demand for Rahul to contest from Wayanad was one thing that united the state Congress leadership. They camped in Delhi till Rahul agreed to be their “trump card”.
As expected, the decision has rejuvenated the party not only in Kerala, but in neighbouring states as well. Grassroots workers in Nilgiri in Tamil Nadu and Chamarajanagar in Karnataka are especially enthused.
“It is one of the brilliant decisions the Congress has made in the recent past,” said Kalpetta Narayanan, author from Wayanad. “Had it not happened, the party in Kerala would have withered away soon.”